Ben Button's a big threat, definitely. If there's a split, it'll be between the two, without a doubt.

After seeing Slumdog, I'm positive Boyle is winning director now. In terms of director flash, it's up there with There Will Be Blood, let alone No Country, Departed, Brokeback etc. As Lecter said it's done too well to not get one of the two... being this director heavy, there's no way it doesn't get at least Director without Picture. It's like in 2005 where even when Crash threatened, it held a look far too standard next to Brokeback to come close to taking director from Lee (for the record I'm a big time supporter of directing being a lot more than camera work and thus I feel awarding directors and picture seperately at all is stupid. But in the academy's eyes when it comes to BD without BP noms along with winners, camera heavy films like U93, Diving Bell, Brokeback, etc. normally have the advantage over the Chicago, Crash, LMS's of the world)

I think it will win Picture though. I only worried before it'd feel too small and indie-like and wouldn't have enough bang and big factor to win, but yea, that definitely won't be a problem. Other than being set in India it has as much "bang" factor and is as tailormade for a BP race as Departed and No Country really. Diving Bell felt like a foreign movie and that hurt it, Slumdog is about as foreign as Schindler's List or something, it's very much a North American type film just set in India

I mean Slumdog mixes guns/gangsters and shootouts, romance, sympathy for a minority culture, an inspirational underdog story, and is told in a big, audience pleasing, cinematic way... if that's not a formula for BP I don't know what is. Plus it's legitimately better than its competition and is dominating so far. The only thing close to standing in its way is the India setting and cast, otherwise this is game over thanks for playing No Country style. That's probably how it will be anyways

If this happens I will hunt down every voter for the oscar BD and kill all of them (okay hyperbole but you get the idea) After having seen this film I DO NOT UNDERSTAND THE HYPE OVER BOYLE!!!! Maybe someone can explain what he did right, but to me it was a) rather messy camera work b) mediocre chemistry created between actors c) alot of unnecessary scene and rather strange selections on what to show. I will admit his handle of dark material with such energy was extremely impressive, and his flashback fade-out work with the story was well done, but all in all, enough flaws to cancel out the great stuff and call it a wash. Fine direction but nothing worthy of admiration, and certainly nothing worth this award. Danny Boyle and the whole slumdog train= very very very overhyped.

The film's flawed, but messy camera work? No.

Does ANYONE doubt that at this point?

No. I doubt the film's chances in BP (I'm predicting "Button"), but Boyle is definitely winning Best Director.