Notes on a Scandal got 2 plus writing and music nominations and no Picture or Director. The actors were also easy names for AMPAS to nominate, just as the group from Doubt.

So, I just saw Happy-Go-Lucky.

I was not blown away by any measure. Sally Hawkins was great indeed but I don't think she has a chance at winning if she gets nominated.

The film has no real chance at Picture. Best Supporting Actor, in my opinion, SHOULD be its most solid nomination, but I'm sure it won't be. then again, BSActor is really weak this year. "Enraha Enraha!"

Not sure about screenplay either.... it basically had no plot. But I wouldn't rule it out. Overall, I think it's gonna be too small and too british/indie to make a big splash with AMPAS.

really? the train of disappointments chugs on.

So a largely-improvised movie about nothing? Like Currrrrrrbbbbbb!!!!

I'm thinking Australia is a bust. I do think WALL-E is being underestimated, though, and BB and TDK are the current frontrunners.

I didn't say the film was a disappointment. And as far as award chances go... who really was even predicting it for Best Picture?

I saw Happy-Go-Lucky earlier today as well. The movie itself was good, not great. Certainly not as good or moving as Secrets and Lies, but also better than Vera Drake, I'd say.

No chance at Picture I'd say. HOWEVER, make no mistake, the movie's not as light and all-comedy as it may seem. It's not. There are some truly sad moments in there too. Some brilliant moments too. I think my main gripe was that at the end it kinda went nowhere.

Hawkins is great, but honestly, Eddie Marsan is brilliant and if there's any justice, he'll be nommed for Best Sup. Actor. A screenplay nom is actually the least likely of the three, but it should get in there as well probably.

Hawkins however should have her Globe in the bag.

Heh, I'm sure Streep will be nommed in Drama AND in Musical.

I still think that with the seemingly weak lineup, we're gonna get a surprise nom or two. Last year nobody was even considering say, Michael Clayton to get in.

Unfortunately I think we should keep an eye on The Burning Plain. I'm also keeping an eye on Shanghai, still.

Here's another movie that's sort of flying under the radar

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0436364/

Nazis + Viggo Mortenson. Only concern is that the imdb board says it was set to debut at Toronto, so if it was going to break out, we might've heard anything about it by now.

There's also "Cadillac Records", about the rise and fall of a RnB record label, with Adrien Brody, Beyonce, Jeffrey Wright, and then assorted urban players Mos Def, Gabrielle Union, Cedric the Entertainer. I'm 90% sure from those last three it won't be going for Oscars at all, but who knows, maybe it'll have a Dreamgirls vibe.

What about The Boy in the Striped Pajamas?

Good got bad reviews in Toronto. I'm sure it will be a non player. It's weird. Viggo started out with so many potential vehicles... Appaloosa doesn't seem like it's going anywhere, and even with The Road, we've yet to see a trailer and it's being released next month.

Seen W. and it ain't goin' anywhere (not even Brolin, with the already packed Best Actor category).

It's too safe ironically. A weird thing to say about a Oliver Stone film eh.

So, I've been thinking...which film actually has a shot at WINNING Best Picture?

Films like Milk and Doubt, as good as they may be...they're not winning. Simply way too small. There won't be a $60+ million grosser about possible pedophilia and I don't see more than $50 million for Milk either (Brokeback was at least a love story). The Reader doesn't strike me as a big grosser at all and Gran Torino won#t be another Million Dollar Baby which certainly had a bigger cast.

So I keep coming back to Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Australia and Revolutionary Road (if it doesn't suck). Obviously TDK is huge, but the other three all have a chance at decent money (meaning making the same as NCFOM at least or more).

Milk might not even be that good from what I heard so far.

They are screening Milk on November 6th at UCLA... so I'll see it pretty soon.

Is Benji supposed to be Eastwood or something?

Winners...

Picture: TDK or Australia (if Australia is REALLY good, it's gonna be tough passing up a sweeping epic romance)
Director: again, Luhrman or Nolan. I'd say it will go hand in hand with BP. fincher is a spoiler.
Actor: Pitt
Actress: Winslet. I'm sorry HGL is NOT winning this.
S.Actress: Cruz
S. Actor: Ledger

that's all I got so far.

I've been thinking about Milk, and I'm pretty sure we're setting ourselves up for disappointment. The trailer is EXCEPTIONAL, no doubt, but I think that's just the problem--it's just a really well edited trailer. Besides the gay angle, which btw is important to me, I don't see much in the footage to suggest that this is going to be a home run.

Hopefully I'm wrong.

I'm also lowering my expectations for Benjamin Button. 'Instant classic'? Maybe, but I won't be entering the theater expecting it.

Australia, I really have no idea how this one will turn out, although I have a feeling it's going to get panned.

Regarding WALL-E: I love Pixar, I think Ratatouille, The Incredibles, and Finding Nemo all deserved a BP nomination in their respective years, but there is 0% chance WALL-E will get the nod, nor am I sure it'll deserve it.

WALL-E won't get a BP nod, nor does it deserve it. At all.

Don't forget Frost/Nixon

No but really, I think it's TDK vs Benjamin Button at this point. TDK probably has the edge in the sense that it's already released and solidified, while Button is no sure thing. Once it's in too, it'll be hard to pass it up with 500 mil, Heath's win, and I'm guessing a number of tech wins. I also think it fits right into the mold of The Departed and NCFOM where they choose the edgier, more violent, but still most universally loved films, over the traditional fare like Doubt and Frost/Nixon. The flat out rejection of those traditional contenders in the last couple years makes me go against predicting them, not to mention, Howard's already won BP and the guy directing Doubt is a total unknown. The shift towards violence and edge kind of represents the attitude of the country right now, actually.

If Benjamin Button is a masterpiece though, it's right there. It'll have the edge in overall noms and could easily win Best Actor.

Honestly though, who knows... Crash was a longshot for a nomination at this point. Maybe The Soloist will blow everyone's balls off. But at this point I'd probably say I'm 80 to 85% sure either TDK or BB will take home the big prize.

That's a good start, though that reviewer seems more wary of Ron Howard's weakness of playing it safe and conventional than most have in the past.

Well, at this point it's hard to say. If the Oscars were held right now, I'd give it one, but I've only seen ~15 movies this year. I do consider it a noticeably more flawed film than the three I mentioned above, despite its moments of magic, and do think there will be at least 5 more films released that will be more deserving.

I was waiting for you to respond to me.

I would love to see WALL-E nominated, but it's a huge longshot at this point. Given how weak this year has been, it's not out of the race, but it definitely won't be in the thick of it either unless a whole hell of a lot of things go miraculously right in the precursors.

That Frost/Nixon review is kind of surprising. But with how baity a project it is, I wouldn't completely rule it out until more such reviews come in, and from more major sources.

WALL-E is animated and animation has its own category. That hurts it immensly.

Once Pixar produces another 95+% at RT $300+ million grosser....yes, then it'll be nominated.

Lecter stole my thunder, but I'll say this:

1. Even if that's the case, they've gotten 3 of the 7 Animated Feature Oscars. I don't think the Academy feels like they owe them.
2. You of all people should know that critical reception doesn't always matter when it comes to BP noms. Look at Crash.
3. It's still far too early to tell. There's always those few films that come out of nowhere and steal the spotlight.

This has nothing to do with me disliking it. Even before I saw it, I didn't think it would be nominated. Now I'm also hoping it doesn't.

I'll admit I think a Wall-E nomination is more likely than it was a month ago, this year is definitely weak. It could also get 6 nominations not counting BP which would put it over the edge of any of the previous Pixars.

One thing I'd put it against it though is that if The Dark Knight and Benjamin Button get in, that might be as much as the academy likes to stretch in one year, getting any superhero films or high concept fantasies nominations is difficult in itself. Also, if BB is a 150 mil+ hit, there probably won't be a need for a third box-office player. I'm thinking of 1994 where Forrest Gump was the token "one of the biggest films ever", and then Pulp Fiction and Shawshank were stretching it a bit in terms of getting away from the stoic Oscar films they normally go for... as a result The Lion King had no place to fit in, as its gross didn't look quite as mighty and there was no room for a 4th out of ordinary choice.