I'm still in this club despite the absolute ridiculousness of the SAG nominations

I will unload on you

Loyal what will you say if, hypothetically, it doesn't get a DGA nom?

It's an homage/parody of how much it's used/emphasized in Academy Awards material/promos, with a little help from out friend the option key...

I think it'll miss either DGA or PGA, but get a nom at one of them.

Then again, in recent years, DGA has proven to be a bit more of a predictor than PGA for BP nominees. Not last year, but the years before for sure.

Movies that got PGA noms, but no DGA noms:

Walk the Line
The Incredibles
The Last Samurai
Cold Mountain
Adaptation
My Big Fat Greek Wedding
Road to Perdition
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
Shrek
Billy Elliot


In the same time frame, movies that got no PGA noms, but DGA noms:

Traffic
Memento
Black Hawk Down
The Hours
The Pianist
Lost in Translation
Ray
Munich


So, it boiled down in recent years to the following:

A PGA nom without a DGA nom - not a single one of them got a BP nom at the Oscars
A DGA nom without a PGA nom - 6 out of 8 got BP noms at the Oscars, 7 got BD noms (Black Hawk Down got BD, not BP).

Apparently, there's a better chance to get a BP nom if you'r enot nominated for either DGA or PGA (see In the Bedroom, Gosford Park...) than if it's a PGA nom only

Um, no, Loyal, Moulin Rouge, Dreamgirls and Chicago were ALL nominated for PGA and DGA.

Only one of them got BP/BD noms at the Oscars, another got a BP nom (though that BD snub was insane) and the third one got zilch.

hmm, at this point, I don't think so. The box office is good, but honestly, I was thinking that it would need $150m or higher to have a solid shot at winning. It looks headed for a bit over $100m. That mixed in with good, not great, reviews [at least, in comparison to its competition], adds in with the Academy's refusal to choose weird movies to give this a very minimal shot. I think it'll be nominated, though, and that would make Burton's first nomination since...wait...ever?! I think BP/BD noms along with Actor, Screenplay, and a buncha techs would be more than good enough for this film.

I meant by the end of its run...and honestly, with Depp's popularity, the film's good advertising campaign, and the Burton groupies, mixed in with a fantastic response, it COULD have had a chance at that. By nominations, of course, it won't be close.

While $11 million opening weekend from 1,200 theaters is hardly bad or anything, Dreamgirls and Hairspray have shown that wide-released Musicals are usually frontloaded, and being a Burton/Depp collaboration certainly isn't going to help its legs. At the very least $100 million isn't happening at all. While it'll probably pass NCFOM, I could see it passing Sweeney again along the way, especially since NCFOM will probably continue its trek to a Picture win.

I think a $65-75 million finish sounds about right at this point, assuming it can still get a BP nom. If not, maybe $60 million.

Using terms like "pretty clear" and "most likely" is pushing it, a lot. Sweeney Todd isn't nearly as popular a story as the Headless Horseman, and the musical aspect is still bound it weird people out. Also, that had a pretty large opening and an opening 10 days around Thanksgiving to capitalize business. Sweeney WILL have the far stronger Christmas, but it doesn't nearly as large of a head start as Sleepy Hollow did.

Also, you omitted Corpse Bride (One of the few films of his that rival the auteuristic qualities of Sweeney), which made only $53 million. Sleepy Hollow, Planet of the Apes and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory all had popular enough source material to make the dough they did. Sweeney Todd still isn't THAT well known of a musical outside of Musical nerds, and nowhere near those three other films.

I stand by my current projections for the time being. I'll adjust them after next weekend when we have an idea of how frontloaded it is.

Hmmmm... this club went awful quiet all of a sudden...

You're all doomed! DOOMED!!! DOOOOOMMMMED!!!!!

...and you don't appreciate half the great movies that you see...

But, seriously... I don't know where people get the idea I don't see the movies I review... perhaps it's because I don't write tiresome plot summaries...

Nevermind, in the end my reviews will be one of the key legacies of WOKJ.

They are the best part of the critics forum Bradley! I wish you would write more!!! I am not being sarcastic either. You have some of the unique views on movies and all of your reviews are always a pleasure to read.

Sweeney sooooo does not deserve a nomination. I saw it tonight. It was good but not great.

To balance things out.

Sweeney sooooo does deserve a nomination. I saw it Friday. It was great and much better than good.

I'd nominate it, but No Country For Old Men and Ratatouille (if God comes down on golden chariots to deliver the best picture nominees) are both more deserving of the win.

Already #136 on IMDb's top 250 films.

I actually think it got off to a really nice start at the box office. It was a really crowded frame with a great deal of competition and it pulled in something like $7,000 per theatre, and it's going to go wider. It's probably going to have a higher box office gross than every contender but American Gangster.

Saw it over the weekend and was quite disappointed. =(

I'm skeptical about its nominations prospects now. Then again, I'm almost always skeptical about a movie's nomination chances right after I see it including this year's NCFOM, Juno, and Atonement.

Johnny Depp will not win for this I am almost positive and I was getting ready for an interesting 2 man race. So much for that.

None of the music/songs took my breath away. It always seemed like it was a tiny bit shy of being something great. And that may have alot to do with the original material than the adapted... but the story also felt like it didn't have a focus (too many not-fully developed subplots flying around).

The production design was of course amazing but even so it was a little too dark for my taste. And I mean that in the literal sense. I love Tim Burton's darkness as it penetrates into most of his films' art direction but this one was just annoyingly dark.

It's not like I thought it was a bad film (it wasn't) and I wouldn't be shocked if it got nominated (if it won, yes). Bottom line is I wasn't satisfied with what I saw.

I am withdrawing my support of this films BP prospects in favor of Juno.

this film's hopes are growing rather dim. With something like The Great Debaters now in the race there's more and more of a likelihood that it could get snubbed from a nom entirely, especially with Michael Clayton also clawing for a spot. I think you should all be very happy if this even gets nominated, since at this point, it's looking like one of the expected nominees will get booted out [presuming Michael Clayton and The Great Debaters aren't one of the "expected" nominees]

I got some ointment and doctor's help for my std club membership

Sorry