Steve Jobs simply has more strentgh in other categories, as it will almost definitely be nominated for Actor, Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay. Room could end up this year's Wild.

Room better be nominated.

Joy is pretty screwed except for at the Golden Globes.

I never expected Joy to be bad. This fucks over my last draft pick.

Joy is at 59% now. It is getting better. Might be able to make a comeback when more reviews come in.

That could be the BP lineup for WOKJ MPA, with Inside Out and Star Wars mixed in somewhere.

The WOKJ line-up will be Inside Out, Star Wars, Mad Max, The Revenant and The Hateful Eight.

So the rough ranking right now:

1. Spotlight
2. The Martian
3. Carol
4. The Revenant
5. Bridge of Spies
6. Mad Max
7. Inside Out
8. Room
9. Steve Jobs
10. The Big Shorts
11. Brooklyn

I would say Mad Max is higher than that.

I think one of Hateful Right or Revenant will be left off due to their very late release dates. The Martian, Creed or something about lesbians is much more likely.

I think Mad Max is a firm #2 right now in the oscar race, but that a lot will change in the coming weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if it missed BP entirely. Same with Martian. Then again Spotlight will surely face some frontrunner backlash and the lack of another bait film that people are passionate about could push them over the top!

It is winning three Oscars at best, though.

Other than the obvious Picture/Director/Screenplay I think Editing and Score are definitely possible. Supporting Actor isn't 100% dead, as much as the SAG miss hurt, Stallone missing also helps. Mark Rylance winning Best Supporting would be so blah

It has immense competition in Editing and Score. And winning an Oscar after missing SAG and the Globes??

So will Mad Max get into the noms? Even though I don't get the hype, it would certainly be cool to have a film like it nominated.

It could win 4 (Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing). And I won't discount the possibility of a Keaton win if he manages to get nominated.

This year is so insane that it's probably going to throw general expectations or preconceptions out the window, though.

I wonder if The Big Short could slip into the best-picture lineup. It is well-represented at the Golden Globes (due, yes, to the comedy/musical distinction) and has such a fancy cast, yet is also flying a bit under the radar.

I really hope Mad Max doesn't get nominated.

I don't think The Big Short is "slipping in" anymore. The buzz is starting to snowball and the reviews are surging. It's near 90% at RT, has the strong cast, and is topical. Not only is it in, but I think it's going to be one of the stronger movies in the race. At least IMO.

My updated Best Picture predictions:

The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

10. Inside Out
11. The Hateful Eight
12. Trumbo

Or something.

Yeah, I really hope it wins it all, game changer.

I think there's only one film that has spoiler potential for Spotlight and that's The Big Short

I wouldn't count out The Martian totally. Gladiator won with much weaker reviews, plus this will probably win a Golden Globe.

I think The Martian lost a lot of steam. That SAG ensemble was supposed to be a slam dunk. It's definitely not as strong as people thought it was.

Look at those SAG Ensemble noms. Judging by those, everything lost steam. Wasn't The Hateful Eight also supposed to be a slam dunk?

The Hateful Eight did not send any screeners to SAG though, and that's always a problem. I'm sure if they did send screeners and the film was more widely seen, it would have been nominated. The Martian is a true ensemble film. Films like Room or Carol can be said to be dominated by the two central performances (though I somewhat disagree) and all four of them got nominations. The Martian didn't even manage a Best Actor nomination. The only other film I was kinda surprised didn't make it into Ensemble is Brooklyn.

I see it as 2007 all over again. I mean two out of five SAG Ensemble nominees have no shot at a BP nom at all and a third has only minimal chances. So what does that tell you?

Updated:

The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
Inside Out
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Steve Jobs
Spotlight