I think the Town could get burned by the lack of passion votes. I have the feeling it's the kind of movie everyone likes but noone loves.

There's no way Harry Potter sneaks in here right?

Nope, but 7.2 can if it gets PoA-type reviews.

Are films with two cinematographers eligible for Best Cinematography? I hope so. I'd hate if Anthony Dod Mantle (Antichrist) and Enrique Chediak (The Good Girl) weren't nominated for their amazing collaborative effort on 127 Hours.

The Fighter - 95 at BFCA, 71% with 5.0 average at RT so far

King's Speech will get the acting nods, looks like the film overall is a bit of a letdown for critics.

Opens things up for TSN again. True Grit being the last unknown.

King's Speech will be fine at MC (already trending up) and remains a serious contender with a 90% at RT and 97 at BFCA.

Hmm, it will be a strong contender, but currently The Social Network seems to be well ahead of everything else.

As a critical favorite, The Social Network is certainly very much in front, but being the most critically acclaimed one doesn't always translate into an Oscar victory, and King's Speech is presenting itself as a strong alternative. It's up to 82 at MC, 90% at RT with an 8.4 average, and 98 at BFCA, and those marks are pretty good enough by past BP winner standard. It's also off to a fine start at the box office.

Well, of course just being insanely critically acclaimed does not make a film a favorite, but it helps when combined with other factors:

- The Social Network deals with a relatable topic and simply seems quite "in"

- David Fincher seems quite overdue as opposed to the much leser-known director of The King's Speech

- The box-office is on its side as it is looking at a $95+ million finish

With True Grit getting very good reviews, I think this is now the most likely lineup:

The Social Network
King's Speech
127 Hours
Inception
Toy Story 3
True Grit
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
Black Swan
Winter's Bone

I'm not ready to count out The Way Back yet. And I'm holding super-firm on The Town; it's just not being left out. Black Swan still could be, though, IMO.

BTW, xiayun, it's True Grit, not grits.

Fixed.

8 reviews at RT for True Grit, 100% with an 8.5 average.

7 100s for King's Speech now at MC, and the score is up to 84. 93% at RT, with the average increased to 8.6.

True Grit's reviews are splendid.

CAN WE PLEASE GO BACK TO FIVE NOMINEES THIS IS NO FUN AT ALL

Agree, there are usually no more than 10 deserving films anyway so there are no surprises or controversial omissions.

And business wise, the oscar bump is lower than ever.

This is bullshit, IMO. Even with ten, lots of interesting, worthy films will go without a Best Picture nomination.

As Magnus says in the post above, Best Pic should be about the "best of the best". I can think of maybe 30 films from say 2007 that (IMO) deserved a Best Pic nomination but the fact remains the awards hold more weight with 5 per category than 10.

The Jackass 3D campaign has begun.

http://www.joblo.com/for-your-award-con ... jackass-3d

Should definitely get an original screenplay nom, as well as supporting actor Wee-Man.

Does anybody feel The Kids Are All Right could be the one to miss BP? I'm suddenly having that feeling. It doesn't have the techs support of 127 Hours, the box office of The Town, and the passion of Winter's Bone. Yes, acting support could be there, but it has been overshadowed by the top contenders there. It's just kind of exists and not much else, and I wouldn't be surprised if it's the one that misses.

Hmm, it will likely have two acting noms and an assured Screenplay nom.

And c'mon, it'd be the ONLY light (live action) movie of the bunch. Winter's Bone, 127 Hours, The Town, Inception, The Fighter, Black Swan...not exactly very happy films.

It's not exactly a happy film either though and could have been easily considered a drama than comedy.

It is still the only movie this year with that "indie comedy" feel like Sideways or Little Miss Sunshine.

It also deals with important topics too, so...

I can't see it missing. WGA nom, PGA nom, likely two Globes wins tonight and three SAG nominations, including Ensemble.

I mean in the past we usually said that the five Ensemlble nominees can often end up as the five BP nominees. Now that we've got ten BP nominees, a movie with a SAG Ensemble nod should be able to get in in any case.

While I do agree The Kids Are All Right has lost steam, I still can't see it missing Best Picture for numerous reasons, most of which Lecter has already cited.