Dunno...Charlize Theron got nominated for North Country despite a 69% RT score and poor box office. I think Swank can never be counted out.

I think if anybody is going to pull a Theron, it'll be Lane with Secretariat. Don't see both making it with the category as competitive as it is.

Swank has more of a shot than Lane.

I feel like if the Coens didn't win recently and it wasn't a remake, True Grit would be the probable BP winner this year. It has a very, very BP like feel

With that said those things do matter so I'm guessing it'll be this year's Inglorious Basterds as the 3rd or 4th biggest player but in the mix to win. I'm not sure the Social Network is anywhere near a lock though. And I dunno about the King's Speech. 15 years ago yes - but lately the trend is edgier films while TKS type films are lock nominees and actor winners but no more. I think something could come out of nowhere

Had Boyle not won before 127 Hours would be right up there with The Social Network and The King's Speech.


http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/127_hours/

http://www.metacritic.com/movie/127-hou ... ic-reviews


Looks like Boyle will manage what Eastwood and the Coens and many many others couldn't - follow up on a BP winner with a BP nominee.

I have a gut feeling The Fighter is going to be very well-received and become an 11th-hour challenger to The King's Speech and The Social Network.

The Way Back is upsetting me. Peter Weir's the man, without a doubt, the cast is top-notch, it's based on an incredibly compelling true story--but Newmarket's hesitant, small release is just frightening. Jeffrey Wells reported they won't even open it in New York, just a qualifying run in Los Angeles.

I want to believe Weir's name is enough to overcome a very minor release, but I'm not 100 percent convinced.

King's Speech has 100 at BFCA! Still 100% at RT and 9.0 average with 10 reviews. Really start to feel it'll be its year.

My current predicted Best Picture lineup:

The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
The Way Back
(alternate, Black Swan, Made in Dagenham)

I wonder which film editor Lee Smith'll be nominated for. He edited both Inception and The Way Back. Inception is the natural choice; it's an amazing feat of editing, the last 30 minutes in particular. But it's hard to imagine The Way Back missing Best Editing if it's a Best Picture/Best Director powerhouse...

Inception should definitely get an Editing nod. If TDK managed one this one will also definitely get one.


127 Hours is at 84/100 at MC with six 100-scores.

Black Swan is at 91% (8.4/10 average) at RT with 23 reviews in.

The King's Speech got its first negative at RT, now at 91% with 11 reviews.


My Top 10 prediction:

Toy Story 3
Inception
127 Hours
The King's Speech
The Kids Are All Right
Black Swan
The Social Network
True Grit
The Way Back
Something we don't really expect right now (maybe Somewhere)


If we still had onloy five nominees, then I'd be going with 127 Hours, The Kids Are All Right, The Social Network, The King's Speech and Inception. The former four are currentlx the strongest films in the race.

The Fighter looks like a very much possible candidate now. Here is what Kris Tapley wrote: http://incontention.com/2010/11/10/afi- ... more-31931.

Current predictions:

Best Picture
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
The Way Back

Best Director
Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Peter Weir, The Way Back

Best Actor
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter

Best Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Ed Harris, The Way Back
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Lesley Manville, Another Year
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Best Original Screenplay
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech

Best Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit

Black Swan is not missing BP. Critics awards have had more influence than ever in recent years, and with a 93 at BFCA and 8.4 average at RT, it will have more than enough to make the top 10 at Oscar.

We'll see. I suspect it will prove too dark/strange for a lot of the Academy.

IMO, way too many people are counting out The Town. It's a huge success driven not by foreordained prestige, but by populist adoration. People just dig the movie in a very real way. And its December DVD/Blu-ray release will remind people how much they enjoyed it.

It's also going to be nominated, IMO, for the SAG Ensemble prize.

If it stayed five I think Toy Story 3 would be in over Inception.

Nope, it's not just animated, but it is also a sequel.

I wonder if Potter will be able to snatch a tech nom or two this time around.


I just noticed that it's the first Potter film ever so far to not get a single 100-score review at MC. Maybe one will still cme, but we're at 29 reviews already and the highest one if 91/100.

Only two of the six Potter films so far got zero Oscar noms (Chamber of Secrets and Order of the Phoenix).

It won't win, though, because it'll win Best Animated Feature. They can push as hard as they want, the Academy isn't going to say, "Damn, we love Toy Story 3 so much, let's just give it two Best Pictures! Screw The King's Speech/The Social Network/The Fighter/The Way Back!"

Red has a similar pedigree.

My Prediction for Best Motion Picture Nominees are:

Inception
Toy Story 3
The Social Network
The King's Speech
True Grit
Black Swan
The Kids are All Right
127 Hours
The Fighter
The Town

it is so hilarious the advertising campaign they are gonna make, can't wait for the Godfather ad, return of the king, and forrest gump

Would love to see it happen, but TS3 wasn't even the best animated film of this year.