General Oscar thoughts can go here

JoJo Rabbit has a 49 on MC. It turns out making a cotton candy Hitler film is hard, and progressive twitter will be burning lava if you slip

With the Win at Venice, Joker lcks up a best picture nom, right?

Shaping up to be an interesting battle.

The front runners (at the moment) for BP/BD appear to be:

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Marriage Story
Joker
Parasite
Ford V Ferrari

But this will likely change a fair bit over the next month.

Lucy in the Sky is DOA.

JoJo Rabbit won the People's Choice Award at TIFF

It looked DOA a week or so ago. Looks like a contender now.

It would be amazing if Parasite was nominated for Best Director. Joon-ho Bong deserves it.

Early preview http://wokj.worldofkj.com/an-early-look ... cars-race/

I'm thinking Joker misses a BP nom, and Phoenix gets a nom but loses.

Once Upon A Time is a good pick for front-runner. This will be their last chance to reward Tarantino since he is likely doing Star Trek as his final movie. It’s biggest obstacles, besides the other films, will be backlash from the Bruce Lee scene and Quentin’s history with Harvey Weinstein.

Oh please, what comparable director has just retired during his prime? Tarantino is just saying that.

I do think it's the frontrunner though, simply because it's tailor-made for Hollywood people. The Bruce Lee scene is hilarious and a highlight, if anything it will help the film. The "backlash" (??) is non-existent. And everyone in Hollywood knew what Weinstein was up to for decades and they voted for his movies all the time so I don't think this will be any different.

He probably will make more movies. But he's brought it up over and over again, so at the very least he believe he will be done after Star Trek, and therefore there's a real chance this is the last time they can properly honor him or risk him joining Kubrick and Hitchcock as all-time greats that were embarrassingly ignored their entire careers.

The SuperWoke crowd is already all over the Bruce Lee scene though. You cannot portray a famous person of color as anything other than extremely heroic.

I would presume Tarantino is heavy favorite for director either way, the question is whether there's a split. I think Marriage Story doesn't have to win Director unless it has the most dominant Oscars night of all time with Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress and Screenplay wins, and my sleeper to Green Book its way to BP JoJo Rabbit definitely doesn't need to get Director. If OUATIH doesn't win either Picture or Director, they might go Marriage Story/JoJo in BP and hit the Bong in Director for Parasite

Enjoyed the article about the Oscar 2019 race so far.

I'm looking forward to the Joker to see what all the buzz is about and JoJo Rabbit though considering how divisive it is already I think that has 0% chance at winning Best Picture. I do need to check that out too.

I doubt the Bruce Lee fluff is going to affect any actual voters who could care less about a scene that lasted maybe 2 minutes. I don't think Robbie would be nominated for Hollywood as her role is so bleh and unmemorable. If any female gets nominated from that film it should be the little girl.

I will be shocked if the highest grossing film of all time isn't granted a Best Picture nomination to go along with it's two sound nods, visuals and hopefully 2 or three more. Disney better spend the money and make this happen.

The Bruce Lee scene is a great scene. Only the insane would hold it against the film.
Though on Robbie - Agree that she wont get nominated but I think her role is memorable and shines brightly - luminous innocence in a changing and decaying world.

The Irishman is a contender....

100% on RT/92 MC with a fair amount of reviews in might be enough to make it the Best Picture frontrunner. But 209 minutes is pretty ridiculous

Netflix is likely to have 2 of the strongest BP contenders (The Irishman and Marriage Story) and potential 3rd nominee (The Two Popes)

As I understand it the reaction to the Irishman's actors all of which have excellent reviews:

Robert De Niro - very good but pretty subdued. Better in the second half of the movie.

Al Pacino - the most surface friendly/loudest performance

Joe Pesci - Being singled out by critics, but has the smallest role of the three and is a pretty internal performance

I would say De Niro is a threat to get 5th nominee in Actor but not to win. For the Supporting Actors it seems like the critics are going Pesci which is the quieter but more complex performance, while we know the Oscars love the bigger scene chewing roles like Pacino. Add in that this is Joe Pesci so odds are he's begging to not have to go to the Oscars and won't be campaigning, and likelihood of voting splitting with Pacino I think his chance of winning is small but can sneak in as a double nominee. That leaves Pacino who is in a great position with a big loud role, and him winning a second Oscar at some point feels right of course. However if Pesci gets in the vote splitting is a problem.

After seeing Joker, I was thinking there's no way the academy will go for this. It's a movie that thinks it is really smart and important, tells the audience thus, but doesn't actually say anything smart or important … Which is exactly what Green Book was lol. And so many others that have struck big here. So yeah, I could see a nomination or five.

Makeup - the only guarantee
Actor - good chance
Score - good chance
Cinematography - maybe
Adapted Screenplay - probably not, depends on the competition
Picture - 50/50

It has no chance for a picture nomination.

Just like when Gaga had no chance of losing her Oscar right?

Only one comic book movie has ever been nominated and it had far better reviews, box office and the diversity angle. Joker’s only got an acclaimed performance from Phoenix going for it. The films reviews are no longer very good.

And with Gaga most of the analysts were predicting her up until she lost the globe. Sorry for going with popular opinion.

I think Joker will end with only Best Actor nomination (not a win).

One positive for Joker is its leftie message could have some legs for voters. Michael Moore jizzed over it