Wel, it's never too early and since there is currently a lack of critics awards onslaught, I thought I'd start this little discussion on next year's potential Oscar candidates.

Two films come to my mind right away:

Charlie Wilson's War and Australia.

The former is a political thriller by Mike Nichols, starring Julia Roberts, Tom Hanks, Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Amy Adams and tells the story of how the US government supplied Taliban with weapons against Soviet invadors. With such a cast, the director and the story as well as with its December release, there is simply no way around some Oscar noms, including one or two for acting.

The latter is Baz Luhrman's (Moulin Rouge) long-awaited sweeping Australian (d'uh) WW II epic starring Nicole Kidman and Hugh Jackman. Somewhat reminiscent of Cold Mountain probably, this is sure to make a splash at the awards next year as well.


There are several other contenders as well:

Reservation Road:

Directed by Terry George (Hotel Rwanda) this drama about two families and a tradegy stars Jennifer Connelly, Joaquin Phoenix, Mark Ruffallo and Mira Sorvino. I could see this giving Phoenix his 3rd Oscar nom and maybe finally a win. A November release bodes well for its chances as well.

The Kite Runner:

Based on a best-selling and praised novel, the film is directed by Finding Neverland's Marc Forster. Certain to garner critics love, but the no name cast might hurt the exposure a little.

American Gangster:

Ridley Scott. Denzel Washington. Russell Crowe. True Crime Story. November Release. Need I say more?

The Golden Age:

Okay, the sequels are usually not doing very hot at the Oscars, but to each rule, there can be an exception. This Eluzabeth follow-up sees a lot of its cast returning as well as the director. The first film did well Oscars-wise and Blanchett is beloved as ever. Starring Blanchett, Geoffrey Rush, Abbie Cornish, Clive Owen and Samantha Morton, this will probably be somewhat considered as well.

3:10 to Yuma

A western remake directed my James Mangold (Walk the Line) and starring the likes of Russell Crowe, Christian Bale and Peter Fonda should do well with critics and maybe the Academy as well. As we've seen this year, being a remake doesn't necessarily hurt one's chances.

Lust, Caution:

Obviously, the new Ang Lee film starring Tony Leung should be mentioned here. Distributed by Focus Features, this will be pushed for awards next year. The early September release surprises me, though.

Rendition:

Another current-events-related drama about a suspected terrorist and his Western wife. Directed by Gavin Hood, whose Tsotsi won for Best Foreign Picture last year, it stars Jake Gyllenhaal, Reese Witherspoon, Meryl Streep and Alan Arkin.

Sweeney Todd:

Burton & Depp take it on a musical. Why not?

The Other Boleyn Girl:

Okay, the director hasn't done anything remarkable, but hey, this is a period piece starring Eric Bana, Natalie Portman and Scarlett Johansson...

Fracture:

Okay, it's an April release, but the plot sounds interesting and the cast is very impressive with Anthony Hopkins, Ryan Gosling and David Strathairn.

Talk to Me:

Just read the synopsis and the cast list: http://www.comingsoon.net/films.php?id=15213 Sounds good!

Becoming Jane:

Might give Anne Hathaway her first Oscar nom as she plays British novelust Jane Austen.

This'll be a weird one, but I think Hairspray, if its good could sneak in. It could pull a Tootsie, which grabbed 9 nominations. But of course, this all comes down to how well its received. But if its a big musical, and redeems Travolta's career, it could be a player.

I'm interested in Wong Kar-Wai's latest effort, My Blueberry Nights, starring Natalie Portman, David Strathairn, Jude Law, Norah Jones, Rachel Weisz, and Tim Roth. The June release date isn't promising, but it will be distributed by the Weinstein Company. No Christopher Doyle this time, but Darius Khondji (Se7en, Evita) did have one academy nomination.

Australia will be interesting to watch develop. I could easily see it being a hit or disaster. Either way, I see many techs, ala Geisha.

Charlie Wilson's War is almost guaranteed a Best Picture nom based on the pedigree alone, along with Hanks in Actor (It sounds like his juiciest role in years).

American Gangster reminds me of The Departed, minus a legendary auteur and Hollywood superstar. So, I don't see much for it other than great B.O.

3:10 to Yuma is Lions Gate's first real Oscar contender after Crash, so I wouldn't be surprised if they had an all-in campaign for it like with Crash, assuming it's good (Which I'm sure it'll be).

And Talk to Me sounds really good. I wouldn't be surprised if Cheadle gets some major buzz.

After this season is over (Or maybe even after the noms, since the race dies down after that), I think I'm gonna start working on my early predictions. Because I'm obsessive like that.

Oh, what the hell, why don't I predict Best Animated Film!

1. Ratatioulle
2. Shrek the Third
3. The Simpsons Movie
4. Bee Movie
5. Beowulf

Gone, Baby, Gone

Ben Affleck's directorial debut, a missing-child drama-thriller starring Ed Harris and Morgan Freeman. Based on a novel by Mystic River's Dennis Lehane.

Things We Lost in the Fire

Tragic family drama with Halle Berry, Benicio Del Toro, David Duchovny, and Alison Lohman.

How about The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford? I could see Pitt getting a nom for it (a BP nom could be in store too).

I pronounce it here first: Norah Jones is a lock for a Best Actress nomination and the frontrunner for the win (somebody bump this thread in 2008 please),

Norah Jones, like the singer Norah Jones? Did you see the movie early?

So far, my highest hopes are on Charlie Wilson's War, Rendition, and Reservation Road. But obviously it's too early.

I'm getting a very "All the Kings Men" vibe about it. Surely if it was good enough for the season, it would have been released in late 2006?

nah, i haven't seen the movie or seen any reviews on it. but people often make early predictions without yet seeing the film like Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line.

Not to mention it was delayed what...an entire year? I'm not seeing any awards love for it based on that.

BUMP

Just bumping this for Grace is Gone, the only major Oscar contender to emerge from Sundance (From what I've seen), and boy is it a doozy. Why?

A) Great response, won Audience and Screenwriting awards
B) Big, much talked about perf from leading man John Cusack
C) Deals with current events with a personal story (Death of loved one in Iraq)
D) Weinsteins bought it for $4M, and have said they want to get into the Oscar race again, bad

At the very least, it's getting an Actor nom for Cusack. If it's a hit, LMS-style, watch out.

Yeah, in terms of early frontrunners, I think it's safe to say John Cusack.

And Grace is Gone could be a contender.

I don't know if anything else at Sundance made a big enough splash.

Documentaries seemed to be a big thing.

Maybe Vera Farmiga? I know she was in a couple things; one was of them was well-received, I think.

Yeah, Chicago 10 (?) had the biggest buzz.

Quote this post...

Adam Sandler WILL win an Oscar next year.

How about There Will Be Blood? I'm assuming Daniel Day-Lewis and P.T. Anderson both have shots.

I'm guessing Cronenberg's Eastern Promises will at least get Viggo his owed nomination, and maybe more... Probably his 'breakthrough' concerning Oscars if it's coming anytime soon. Gangster movies are in right now, and Naomi Watts is another girl waiting for more award love. I could definitely see a lone director's nomination for him... will have to see how explicit it is to decide whether it has a chance at a Picture nom.

Judging from that pic of Daniel that appeared a while back looking all old and stuff, I'd say he's a major contender for a nom next year.

As for Eastern Promises, I'm not really sure right now. Maybe a nom for Watts (Who has missed about 3 shots at nominations now) and/or Cronenberg (One of the most acclaimed directors without an Oscar nom), and the fact that AHOV got two somewhat unexpected nominations is promising for them accepting him, but I really need to see footage to get a clearer idea of what it's like and if the Academy could take it seriously.

Twas fake.

Lions for Lambs (Robert Redford's entry into the Babel/Crash "We're all connected" fad) and In the Valley of Elah (Paul Haggis's Iraq-centered follow-up to Crash) have now been confirmed for 2007 releases. The former could end up being a Mystic River-style comeback for the aging Redford, and at the moment I think ITVOE will fall curse to the "Director's follow-up to Best Picture winner" curse that stopped The Talented Mr. Ripley, Road to Perdition, Memoirs of a Geisha, King Kong and Flags of Our Fathers.

Now, LET'S TALK CONTENDERS FOR 2007.

In two months once I recover from this season.

Well The Departed winning gives me faith that the academy still has some sense.

I wouldn't love it if Lambs or the next Haggis movie wins BP, but I could let the academy live.

Another year begins... yay.

My pick:

Australia - WW2 drama
Lions for Lambs - Iraqi-drama, but this one might be replaced by the Haggis- or the Nichols war movie
Gone for Grace - this year's LMS
Talk to Me - biographies did great in the recent year
Atonement - this is my secrer fav. for the year, I'm sure that Keira 'll get another nod