99% RT although the reviews aren’t masterpiece level (82 on MC), they could use a big feeling, mainstream friendly winner, diversity friendly, etc.

Nominee, but no win is my thought.

It's release date will definitely limit its potential but I can see a nomination

Maybe. It does check a lot of boxes. The summer release will be its downfall though. Oscar voters tend to lean towards the movie they saw most recently.

I don’t think the film is dramatic enough to win, it’s closer in tone to Hairspray than West Side Story.

If it had released in February of this year I think it would have had a chance to topple Nomadland. Even getting nominated in next year's presumably stacked class will be tough though. I'd give it a better chance of winning than West Side Story though.

I think in the war of musicals to get nominated only the most recent one will win.

I was actually referring to the original that won in 1961/2. I just think that the academy won’t go for it because it’s lightweight and fluffy.

Oh I knew you were. I don’t think either will win, but the image of the ITH cast and crew up on stage at the end has to be appealing. Of course booking things based on how the tv audience will react really backfired at the 2021 ceremony.

More likely is a situation where ITH is snubbed in all big categories and we have to have the “why does the academy hate latinos” conversation (nevermind that they have won five of the last ten best director oscars, thats not a headline!)

After seeing this.. Hell no