2008 is finally coming to a close for Hollywood this Sunday night. Personally, I found more wrong with movies last year than I did right. That aside, the Oscar lineup rocked. Even if “Slumdog” isn’t my favorite film of the year (“Frost/Nixon” and “The Dark Knight” were), I’ll be OK with it taking the big prize, which it seems locked to. Using the science of studying the awards before the Oscars, I have come up with my thoughts on surefire wins and the nominees that look to get the golden shaft.

Best Picture
Nominees: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” “Frost/Nixon,” “Milk,” “The Reader,” “Slumdog Millionaire”
Who will win: “Slumdog Millionaire”
-“Slumdog” has won almost every single pre-Oscar award possible including sweeping all of the guild awards. Not even “No Country for Old Men” did that.
Who should win: “Milk”
-While it might not add much new to the biopic genre, “Milk” is a year-defining film that not only inspires, but features one of the best ensemble performances of the year.

Best Director
Nominees: Danny Boyle for “Slumdog Millionaire,” Stephen Daldry for “The Reader,” David Fincher for “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” Ron Howard for “Frost/Nixon,” Gus Van Sant for “Milk”
Who will win: Danny Boyle
-Along with “Slumdog” winning almost all of the Best Picture awards, Boyle has picked up most of the Best Director prizes for the film’s direction.
Who should win: Danny Boyle
-While Boyle’s work on “Slumdog” may not be my favorite of the year, it is hard to deny his incredible passion for filmmaking, which he displays through the blazing visuals and overall stunning production.

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Richard Jenkins for “The Visitor,” Frank Langella for “Frost/Nixon,” Sean Penn for “Milk,” Brad Pitt for “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” Mickey Rourke for “The Wrestler”
Who will win: Sean Penn
-While Penn has split most Best Actor prizes with Rourke over the past few months, Academy members will probably find it easier to vote for Penn’s grateful demeanor vs. Rourke’s “I’d like to thank my dogs” attitude.
Who should win: Sean Penn or Frank Langella
-Rourke might have had the comeback performance of the year, but both Penn and Langella were able to completely dissolve into their characters and give equally moving and stunning award-worthy performances.

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees: Anne Hathaway in “Rachel Getting Married,” Angelina Jolie for “Changeling,” Melissa Leo for “Frozen River,” Meryl Streep for “Doubt,” Kate Winslet for “The Reader”
Who will win: Kate Winslet
-She might have won most of her awards for her part in “The Reader” in the supporting category, but the Academy shows its love for the performance by promoting her to the more prestigious lead actress category.
Who should win: Kate Winslet (But not for “The Reader”)
-Sure, she played a very subdued and effective Nazi in “The Reader,” but nothing can compare to her multi-layered and haunting role in “Revolutionary Road.” So if she wins, I’m taking it as a win for both of her “revolutionary” roles this past year.


Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Josh Brolin for “Milk,” Robert Downey Jr. for “Tropic Thunder,” Phillip Seymour Hoffman for “Doubt,” Heath Ledger for “The Dark Knight,” Michael Shannon for “Revolutionary Road”
Who will win: Heath Ledger
-Unless the Academy continues to show its bias to comic-book movies, Ledger is probably an even bigger lock to win than “Slumdog” considering he has already gathered a whopping 26 awards over the past three months.
Who should win: Heath Ledger
-There’s no debate that “The Dark Knight’s” greatness relied heavily on Ledger’s once-in-a-lifetime turn as The Joker, which has already gone down as one of the greatest screen performances of all time.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Amy Adams for “Doubt,” Penelope Cruz for “Vicky Christina Barcelona,” Viola Davis for “Doubt,” Taraji P. Henson for “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” Marisa Tomei for “The Wrestler”
Who will win: Penelope Cruz
-This is unquestionably the hardest race to call, but I’m going with Cruz for the win because she has been snubbed multiple times in the past by the Academy and now seems to be her time. Also, many actresses that have worked in a Woody Allen film in the past have grabbed the Oscar.
Who should win: Penelope Cruz
-Her devil-channeling transformation as an obsessed and bi-curious ex-wife made a somewhat dull Woody Allen film into an extremely humorous and awkward affair. While the other actresses may have given solid performances, none elevated their films quite like Cruz.


Upset of the Night
Best Original Song: “Down to Earth” from “Wall-E” will trump the two “Slumdog Millionaire” songs (“O Saya” and “Jai Ho”).
-If there is one award “Slumdog” should win, it’s for its vibrant closing song, “Jai Ho.” However, the Academy has historically snubbed films with multiple song nominations because the voters are split between the songs, allowing a single-song nominee to win.

Jay Brissenden can be reached at jbrissenden@nevadasagebrush.com.

Viper, your main article is brilliant. It sums up the entire Oscar race/awards season in a very concise and informative way, and unlike most so-called experts, you know exactly what you are talking about. You know which organisations are important and how each impacts the Oscars.

I love the concluding paragraph, especially. Well written.

Peace,
Mike