I didn't think about it that way. Should be exciting.

I'm thinking something like this:

Slumdog Millionaire - Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Score (5)
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button - Art Direction, Makeup, Visual Effects (3)
The Dark Knight - Supporting Actor, Editing, Sound (3)
WALL-E - Animated Film, Song, Sound Editing (3)

With the crafts, Cinematography's a tossup between Slumdog and Benjamin Button, with Dark Knight having a shot. Deakins' going to be a victim of vote-splitting AGAIN...yikes.

Editing tends to go to the biggest-scale and/or most complicated. Crash had intersecting stories, ROTK was an epic with battle sequences, Bourne was frenzied action and travelogue-ish versus No Country's fluid rhythms, Departed is Scorsese rhythms versus Babel's Inarritu insana/hyperlink, Aviator was just the biggest of any of the films it was competing with. I think it leans slightly Dark Knight when you look at the last few years, but maybe ACE will clear this up.

Sound is usually whatever blows up good. Dark Knight's getting one of these by default. Pixar isn't usually loud (sans The Incredibles, which won Sound Editing), but the Academy's given them recognition in this craft when you wouldn't expect it and against pretty tough competition (Monsters Inc). And Wall-E does have a lot of flashiness here: robot sounds, spaceship blasts, laser blasts, ambiance and the sparing use of dialogue all draw decent attention to themselves. The effect really isn't as subtle as say No Country For Old Men (then again, I saw it in a lousy theater), so I don't think TDK will just nab these two up.

Art Direction/Costume Design don't usually match up either. Especially Costumes, which they seem to automatically give to whatever film is set earliest. But Ben Button's pretty nice and intricate with the period detail, so Art Direction's all but assured. Costumes will go to something like The Duchess.

Music categories. Slumdog looks pretty strong in Score, though I suppose Benjamin Button can nab it still. Song's made funny by the double-appearance of Slumdog, though, and they do have a chance to finally award Thomas Newman here (and Peter Gabriel), so I guess they'll throw a bone.

So, not quite a sweep, but Slumdog will have the largest number of wins since The Aviator and be pretty damned dominant anyway.

Slumdog's taking editing, it's the dominant player and as editing flashy as Departed, Editing is way too easy for it.

I see Slumdog getting Editing, TDK getting Cinematography, Benjamin Button getting Art Direction/Makeup/Visual Effects. Both Sound might go to WALL-E, but Slumdog or TDK could steal one of them. Costumes will go to The Duchess or Australia. Slumdog will get Score and Song.

Oh, and Deakins won't split votes, he only got one nomination this year (for The Reader). He got snubbed for both Doubt and Revo. Road. Changeling got the other nod.

It's really amazing he hasn't won yet, eh? At the very least, he should've won for Shawshank 15 years ago. And all those Coen films and not a win to date. Shame.

Brainfart. I think any of them but Changeling has a shot then.

If the Reader takes Supporting Actress and Cinematography I'm going to be VEWY worried going into the big ones

^Lead Actress

The Reader's probably gonna take Actress regardless. If it takes Cinematography AND Adapted Screenplay then you have reason to worry.

I agree. No way Slumdog Millionaire misses Editing,

IF it does, then I say its BP chances are seriously in trouble.

Its editing is one of the few awards it actually deserves to win. When if wins score I will be pissed, maybe one of the worst aspects of the film was its poppy music.

The guilds don't mean everything. Since everyone in the Academy votes for all the awards, the guilds are just a part. And if it was a close victory, it might not mean much.

Unless Button wins SAG Ensemble...nothing indicates its strength so far.

At least Crash won that. And Brokeback was snubbed for Editing, whereas Crash was the frontrunner for that.

If a movie sweeps all the guilds that does say a lot.

At the moment, I'm predicting "Benjamin Button" to win:

Best Picture
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Art Direction
Best Cinematography
Best Makeup
Best Visual Effects

So, 6.