Alright, folks, the limey bastards are announcing tomorrow. Any bets or hopes?

Something tells me Changeling will get in for Picture. It was certainly more liked there than in America. Or if not, something more British. Revolutionary Road might be stronger here, though it's not going to save it. Maybe Frost/Nixon. TDK should be in and seal it for a Picture nom.

I want to say something weird happens, though. Wall-E in BP? Ratatouille didn’t even make the longlist last year, so maybe it means something. If it does happen, maybe it'll indicate something that the top ten lists at NBR and such didn't.

I actually predicted Changeling for Best Picture as well (look in the longlist thread), but I'm not sure which will get bumped...Frost/Nixon or Milk...


WALL-E for BP won't happen, I guess...because Stanton missed the longlist.

That may be the prevailing "animation director" curse, but you're probably right.

I'd say Milk between F/N and it.

Evening British Standards. No Slumdog in BP, but Frost/Nixon and Hunger...

Best Film:

* "Frost/Nixon"
* "Hunger"
* "Unrelated"

Best Director:

* Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire"
* Stephen Daldry, "The Reader"
* Lenny Abrahamson, "Garage"

Best Actor:

* Michael Fassbender, "Hunger"
* Michael Sheen, "Frost/Nixon"
* Pat Shortt, "Garage"

Best Actress:

* Samantha Morton, "Mister Lonely"
* Tilda Swinton, "Julia"
* Kate Winslet, "The Reader" and "Revolutionary Road"

Technical Achievement:

* Roger Deakins, cinematographer of "No Country For Old Men", "In the Valley of Elah" and "The Reader" (with Chris Menges)
* Mark Digby, production designer of "Slumdog Millionaire"
* Joe Walker, editor of "Hunger" and "The Escapist"

Best Screenplay:

* Martin McDonagh, "In Bruges"
* Mark O'Halloran, "Garage"
* Peter Morgan, "Frost/Nixon"

Most Promising Newcomer:

* Director Joanna Hogg, "Unrelated"
* Actor Dev Patel, "Slumdog Millionaire"
* Writer-director Rupert Wyatt, "The Escapist"

Peter Sellers Award for Comedy:

* Actress Sally Hawkins, "Happy-Go-Lucky"
* Actor Eddie Marsan, "Happy-Go-Lucky"
* Documentarist Chris Waitt, "A Complete History of My Sexual Failures"

Slumdog/Button/Milk/Frost/The Dark Knight. It's just that kind of year.

In Bruges is my upset pick. a) It has the Brit connection, b) All their strange picks the last couple years involved violence/guns/etc. American Gangster and The Lives of Others, The Last King of Scotland, The Constant Gardener

Didn't it miss the longlist? Or was that Hunger?

Hunger missed.

It was Hunger. Longlists:

BEST FILM
"The Boy in the Striped Pajamas"
"Burn After Reading"
"Changeling"
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight "
"Doubt"
"Frost/Nixon"
"In Bruges"
"I've Loved You So Long"
"Milk"
"The Reader"
"Revolutionary Road"
"Slumdog Millionaire"
"Wall-E"
"The Wrestler"

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
"The Baader Meinhof Complex"
"The Boy in the Striped Pajamas"
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight "
"Dean Spanley"
"Defiance"
"Doubt"
"The Duchess"
"Frost/Nixon "
"Gomorrah"
"Mamma Mia!"
"Persepolis"
"The Reader"
"Revolutionary Road"
"Slumdog Millionaire"

DIRECTOR
"The Boy in the Striped Pajamas"
"Burn After Reading"
"Changeling"
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight "
"Doubt"
"Frost/Nixon"
"Hunger"
"In Bruges"
"I’ve Loved You So Long"
"Milk"
"The Reader"
"Revolutionary Road"
"Slumdog Millionaire"
"The Wrestler"

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
"Burn After Reading"
"Changeling"
"Che Part One"
"Happy-Go-Lucky"
"Hunger"
"In Bruges"
"I’ve Loved You So Long"
"Milk"
"Rachel Getting Married"
"Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
"The Visitor"
"W."
"Wall-E"
"Waltz With Bashir"
"The Wrestler"

MAKE UP & HAIR
"Australia"
"The Boy in the Striped Pajamas"
"Brideshead Revisited"
"Changeling"
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight"
"The Duchess"
"Frost/Nixon"
"Mamma Mia!"
"Milk"
"The Reader"
"Revolutionary Road"
"Slumdog Millionaire"
"Tropic Thunder"
"The Wrestler"

VISUAL EFFECTS
"Australia"
"Changeling"
"The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian"
"Cloverfield"
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight"
"Hancock"
"Hellboy II: The Golden Army"
"Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull"
"Iron Man"
"Quantum of Solace"
"Slumdog Millionaire"
"Tropic Thunder"
"Wall-E"
"Waltz With Bashir"

SOUND
"Australia"
"Burn After Reading"
"Changeling"
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight"
"Frost/Nixon"
"In Bruges"
"Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull"
"Iron Man"
"Mamma Mia!"
"Quantum of Solace"
"The Reader"
"Revolutionary Road"
"Slumdog Millionaire"
"Wall-E"

EDITING
"The Boy in the Striped Pajamas"
"Burn After Reading"
"Changeling"
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight"
"Doubt"
"Frost/Nixon"
"In Bruges"
"Man on Wire"
"Milk"
"Quantum of Solace"
"The Reader"
"Revolutionary Road"
"Slumdog Millionaire"
"The Wrestler"

COSTUME DESIGN
"Australia"
"The Boy in the Striped Pajamas"
"Brideshead Revisited"
"Changeling"
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight"
"The Duchess"
"Frost/Nixon"
"Mamma Mia!"
"Milk"
"The Reader"
"Revolutionary Road"
"Sex and the City"
"Slumdog Millionaire"
"The Wrestler"

PRODUCTION DESIGN
"Australia"
"The Boy in the Striped Pajamas"
"Brideshead Revisited"
"Changeling"
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight"
"The Duchess"
"Frost/Nixon"
"Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull"
"Mamma Mia!"
"Milk"
"Quantum of Solace"
"The Reader"
"Revolutionary Road"
"Slumdog Millionaire"

CINEMATOGRAPHY
"Australia"
"Changeling"
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight"
"Doubt"
"The Duchess"
"Frost/Nixon"
"In Bruges"
"Mamma Mia!"
"Milk"
"Quantum of Solace"
"The Reader"
"Revolutionary Road"
"Slumdog Millionaire"
"The Wrestler"

ANIMATED FILM
"Kung Fu Panda"
"Persepolis"
"The Tale of Despereaux"
"Wall-E"
"Waltz With Bashir"

MUSIC
"Australia"
"Burn After Reading"
"Changeling"
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight"
"The Duchess"
"Frost/Nixon"
"Mamma Mia!"
"Milk"
"Quantum of Solace"
"The Reader"
"Revolutionary Road"
"Slumdog Millionaire"
"The Visitor"
"Wall-E"

LEADING ACTOR
Benicio del Toro - "Che Part One"
Brad Pitt - "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Christian Bale - "The Dark Knight"
Colin Farrell - "In Bruges"
Dev Patel - "Slumdog Millionaire"
Frank Langella - "Frost/Nixon"
George Clooney - "Burn After Reading"
Javier Bardem - "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Josh Brolin- "W."
Leonardo DiCaprio - "Revolutionary Road"
Michael Fassbender — "Hunger"
Michael Sheen - "Frost/Nixon"
Mickey Rourke - "The Wrestler"
Richard Jenkins- "The Visitor"
Sean Penn - "Milk"

LEADING ACTRESS
Angelina Jolie - "Changeling"
Anne Hathaway - "Rachel Getting Married"
Cate Blanchett - "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Frances McDormand - "Burn After Reading"
Kate Winslet - "Revolutionary Road"
Kate Winslet - "The Reader"
Keira Knightley - "The Duchess"
Kristen Scott Thomas - "I’ve Loved You So Long"
Meryl Streep - "Mamma Mia!"
Meryl Streep - "Doubt"
Nicole Kidman - "Australia"
Penelope Cruz - "Elegy"
Rebecca Hall - "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Sally Hawkins - "Happy-Go-Lucky"
Scarlett Johansson - "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brad Pitt - "Burn After Reading"
Brendan Gleeson - "In Bruges"
David Kross - "The Reader"
Eddie Marsan - "Happy-Go-Lucky"
Heath Ledger - "The Dark Knight"
John Malkovich - "Burn After Reading"
John Malkovich - "Changeling"
Josh Brolin - "Milk"
Kevin Bacon - "Frost/Nixon"
Peter O’Toole - "Dean Spanley"
Philip Seymour Hoffman - "Doubt"
Ralph Fiennes - "The Duchess"
Ralph Fiennes - "In Bruges"
Ralph Fiennes - "The Reader"
Robert Downey Jr. - "Tropic Thunder"

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams - "Doubt"
Charlotte Rampling - "The Duchess"
Elsa Zylberstein - "I've Loved You So Long"
Emma Thompson- "Brideshead Revisited"
Freida Pinto - "Slumdog Millionaire"
Judi Dench - "Quantum of Solace"
Julie Walters - "Mamma Mia!"
Kathy Bates - "Revolutionary Road"
Marisa Tomei - "The Wrestler"
Penélope Cruz - "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Rebecca Hall - "Frost/Nixon"
Tilda Swinton - "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Tilda Swinton - "Burn After Reading"
Vera Farmiga - "The Boy in the Striped Pajamas"
Viola Davis - "Doubt"

Judging from that they really dug Frost. So I doubt it's snubbed.

Then again, they also really dug Burn After Reading.

And it has guns and some violence.

I'd say Milk will miss. Probably too American. But BAFTA's impossible to predict.

I dunno, BaR's noms are most of the ones I expected. Frost on the other hand scraped out mentions for Hall, Bacon, Costume Design (in general like every tech possible)... that's pretty solid support. I mean Hall and Bacon literally do like nothing in the movie.

I agree F/N's in now. I'm just trying to narrow it down. They went 3/5 last year and usually go 4/5.

The Dark Knight--pretty safe
Frost/Nixon--pretty safe
Slumdog Millionaire--locked

Benjamin Button--some Brit pedigree, pretty, well in the mix, but eh, it could use a surprise snub considering it's not much of a frontrunner anymore, and without big support and British release yet...
Changeling--reviewed very well in Britain, but still virtually dead
In Bruges--very loyal fanbase, decent hit in Britain, British, but early and not universally loved
Revolutionary Road--Mendes, Winslet, Deakins, but dead
WALL-E--amazing reception, a solid hit in Britain (more than any other animated film this year at least), but animated
Milk--great reception, well in the mix, but very American-centric (and sans guns)
The Reader--pedigree, but not a very good movie
Burn After Reading--pedigree, decent hit in Britain, but not amazingly received
Doubt--pedigree, but very polarizing and American-centric (and sans guns)

Probably like this:
Slumdog Millionaire*
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button/Revolutionary Road
WALL-E/In Bruges

If it looks too much like the rest, it's because the awards frontrunner this year is indeed British.