no make-up involved - maybe in the hospital scenes a bit, but not Oscar material.

Lock:
Picture
Director
Knightley
McAvoy
Adapted Screenplay
Cinematography
Editing
Art Direction

Likely:
Costumes
Score

Unlikely:
Sound
Sound Editing
Sup. Actress

Hmm, Atonement getting so many noms, maybe it can win after all

This year I don't see a picture really dominating, although some could come close to double digits, but next year there is a movie that if it's well received, could be a lock for 10+ nominations, as it can score in acting + technicals nominations, and that is Baz Luhrmann's Australia.

As I see it now, Atonement is the only one that has a decent chance.

Charlie Wilson fell from my list after the trailer. not that it looked bad, but I thought it was going to be more serious than semi-humorous/satirical. Then again, it's Nichols. I keep going back and forth on this one but I'm pretty sure number wise, it still won't have what it takes to get near 10.

I'm still holding out on Sweeney Todd just because it's a musical but the lack of buzz and the sub-stellar trailer has also dropped it from my list.

sweeny todd is too weird for the academy to award with big nominations. count on it

I'm fairly convinced now that at least one film will act as a "Nominations Dominator" this year and receive double digit nominations, and I think that film will be Sweeney Todd. It has potential in up to 12 different categories I think.

If any other film were to hit the double digit mark, I think Atonement could make it as well.

Both Sweeney Todd and Atonement are Best Picture/Director material, have strong acting across the board and could nab lead and supporting nominations, and can hit up a slew of technical/artistic categories due to the nature of the films (one is a period piece, and the other an extravagant musical). Atonement is also pretty much guaranteed a Best Score nomination, as I see it. I see both as nabbing Adapted Screenplay noms for their adaptations from book/stage to screen.

So, the potential is there for both.

Peace,
Mike

Yep. I never should have doubted myself

Picture
Director
Actor
(S. Actor?)
Adapted Screenplay
Art Direction
Costume
Editing
(Makeup)
(Cinematography)
Sound Editing/Mixing
(Original Song?)

I think it has potential but there are alot of question marks to fill and they won't be evident till reviews start pouring in and the techie races start heating up. One thing though is that unless she goes supporting, Helena Bonham Carter is out of a nomination, too crowded I think.

I always thought she was going supporting. I didn't know that was a question mark. I see her getting a nomination, or having a better chance getting one than Cohen or Rickman, with what I've read so far.

Peace,
Mike

Barring a big surprise, it looks to me that no movie this year will get more than 7-8 nominations. Once again.

In my line-up, I see:

Atonement:

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Supporting Actress
Best Art Direction
Best Cinematography
Best Costumes
Best Score
(Best Actress)


Into the Wild:

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Song


There Will Be Blood:

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Actor
Best Score
Best Editing
Best Cinematography
(Best Supporting Actor)


No Country for Old Men:

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Supporting Actor
Best Sound
Best Editing
Best Cinematography
(Best Supporting Actor)


Juno:

Best Picture
Best Original Screenplay
Best Actress


So that leaves the potential maximum at 7-8 noms, IMO.

For other (potential) nominees:


Michael Clayton:

Best Picture
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Original Screenplay


American Gangster:

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Editing
Best Art Direction


Sweeney Todd:

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Art Direction
Best Make-Up
Best Cinematography
Best Editing
Best Sound


Basically....unless Atonement really breaks out and scores more acting noms than I expect it to....no 10+ noms for any film this year

Well, Loyal, let's hope that Luhrman's Australia has got the goods because that film is a definite candidate for 10+ noms.

Memoirs of a Geisha should have been one as well...if it just had been better.

Indeed

Blood, Todd and Atonement all have outside chances for it.

My predictions are:

Juno: 4
(I don't know how but it's gonna pull a 4th one out of its ass)

Atonement: 8 maybe 7
(Pic, SP, S.Actress, Cinem, Edit, Score, Costume, Director[iffy])

No Country for Old Men: 7 maybe 6
(Pic, Dir, SP, S.Actor, Cinem, Editing, Score/Sound[iffy])

Sweeney Todd: 5
(Actor, Costume, MakeUp, Art Dir, Sound)

There Will Be Blood: 8 maybe 7
(Pic, Dir, Actor, Editing, Cinem, Score, SP, S.Actor[iffy])

Michael Clayton: 4 maybe 5/6
(Actor, S. Actor, S.Actress, SP, Pic[iffy], Editing[iffy])

Into the Wild: I can't predict this one. It can get from 2-9 nominations
(Pic, Dir, Actor, S.Actor, S.Actress, SP, Song, Editing, Cinem.)

Did Into the Wild have a Score or was it just songs in the background? If it did have a score, as unlikely as it may be it's the only film with the slightest shot of getting 10 nominations. Sweeney just doesn't have as much support.

Personally, I think Juno may very well get a Director nod. There's no rule saying the comedy directors can't get nominated. I think the fact that Little Miss Sunshine had two directors may have hurt it last year.

And, I'm still not counting out a surprise supporting nod or two.

wow, they're going all out for Into the Wild. haha

Well, I'm at a crossroads right now. My 5th predicted nominee is between Clayton and Wild. My heart and gut says Wild (or maybe it just wants to say Wild) but I really do think Clayton will end up getting nominated whether it takes Wild's spot or someone else's but most probably it will be Wild's spot.

Also, my 5th Director nominee is between Sean Penn and Gilroy. If MC gets nominated, then I think Gilroy has a great shot at a surprise nom. If ITW gets nominated, Sean Penn is in - no questions asked. But if MC gets in and ITW misses out, I'd say Penn still has a decent shot of either taking Gilroy's spot or another director's (probably Joe Wright). The other 3 surefire noms are PTA, Coens, and Julian Schnabel. I have Joe Wright as #4 but I'd say he's on shaky ground

So, assuming Into the Wild gets Picture and Director, it could signify enough support for Actor along with what I deem it's surest bets (Ad.SP and Supp.Actor). Score could be pretty easy since only two other big contenders are competing (Atonement and Blood) and I really haven't looked into the Song race but most seem to think it's got a nom locked up there as well. That brings the tally up to 7 nominations. The other 3 less likely possibilities are Supporting Actress, Cinematography, and Editing. Actually, I think it has a decent shot at Cinematography.

So, I'm saying 7 and wishfully thinking 10

Funny how it's possible it could realistically end up with nothing.

If Jason Reitman gets in he's going to get in over one of these directors:

Joe Wright
Julian Schnabel
Sean Penn
Tim Burton

the question is do you think he can beat any one of those directors 1-on-1?


And I scratch Gilroy out of my last post. Didn't realize he was writer-director. Screenplay nom is all he will get.

I could see ten names over Reitman in there.