Algren wrote:
Ballerina being in this poll is so funny. You'll see that when it doesn't even 20% of the goal.
LOTR was in my poll last year
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| Pick a mid expectations 2025 movie to make 500 million+ http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=90858 |
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| Author: | Shack [ Thu Dec 26, 2024 5:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Pick a mid expectations 2025 movie to make 500 million+ |
Top Gun Maverick, Barbie and Wicked all had expectations like the movies on this list (not top 10 draft picks by average), Wicked won't reach their level but still felt like this year's version of them. It seems the trend is a few major movies a year that social media gets behind and at least one is surprising. |
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| Author: | Shack [ Thu Dec 26, 2024 5:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick a mid expectations 2025 movie to make 500 million+ |
My first instinct was Michael though I do think it will be pretty safe quality wise. I'd have picked Minecraft if I hadn't watched the trailer. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Thu Dec 26, 2024 5:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick a mid expectations 2025 movie to make 500 million+ |
Michael is the only 1 I can see doing it, even if its bad which I expect it will be, it will be controversial and cause conversation. I can see Tron: Ares doing surprisingly well but nowhere near 500m. |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Thu Dec 26, 2024 5:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick a mid expectations 2025 movie to make 500 million+ |
Michael of those. Just wish it was being made by Universal or somebody competent. Lionsgate will probably mess it all up. Also, for the sake of my draft, hoping that Spongebob's massive popularity will finally translate to the big screen. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Thu Dec 26, 2024 5:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick a mid expectations 2025 movie to make 500 million+ |
None of them will make $500 million, are you insane? I'll say Snow White though. |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Thu Dec 26, 2024 6:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick a mid expectations 2025 movie to make 500 million+ |
None of them. Like this year that’s a domain for the surer bets like IO2 and DvW (unless Wicked makes it). |
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| Author: | Shack [ Thu Dec 26, 2024 9:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick a mid expectations 2025 movie to make 500 million+ |
Algren wrote: None of them will make $500 million, are you insane? . Maverick, Barbie and Wicked were as surprising the year before as one of these would be. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Thu Dec 26, 2024 9:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick a mid expectations 2025 movie to make 500 million+ |
Change the title to “ what film will unexpectedly be top 5 of 2025? |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Fri Dec 27, 2024 1:21 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick a mid expectations 2025 movie to make 500 million+ |
I think rather than a random film breaking out to $500M domestic, its gonna be "which heavily anticipated film has enough juice to beat Avatar." Not sure Superman or Zootopia can get there even with monster openings. |
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| Author: | flip1 [ Fri Dec 27, 2024 10:13 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick a mid expectations 2025 movie to make 500 million+ |
Michael is making $400m+ (not sure abt 500m). Nothing else of these options passes $235m |
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| Author: | Algren [ Fri Dec 27, 2024 11:31 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick a mid expectations 2025 movie to make 500 million+ |
Ballerina being in this poll is so funny. You'll see that when it doesn't even 20% of the goal. But anyway, a better poll would be trying to find next year's Joker: Folie a Deux. It's much more likely that a big movie flops than a once-in-a-era surprise $500m grosser. |
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| Author: | Shack [ Fri Dec 27, 2024 12:04 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick a mid expectations 2025 movie to make 500 million+ |
Shame Wicked will be robbed of being last year's surprise 500 mil due to streaming. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Fri Dec 27, 2024 12:13 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick a mid expectations 2025 movie to make 500 million+ |
Shack wrote: Shame Wicked will be robbed of being last year's surprise 500 mil due to streaming. It’s going to be the $24.99 rental and $29.99 purchase at first. As long as it stays off peacock till March I think it still has a shot. Would just need to match Frozen 2 from here |
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| Author: | Shack [ Fri Dec 27, 2024 12:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick a mid expectations 2025 movie to make 500 million+ |
Algren wrote: Ballerina being in this poll is so funny. You'll see that when it doesn't even 20% of the goal. LOTR was in my poll last year
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| Author: | Barrabás [ Sat Dec 28, 2024 1:52 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick a mid expectations 2025 movie to make 500 million+ |
Michael and Minecraft are the only ones with a shot. They'd both have to be really good to make it. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Sat Dec 28, 2024 8:24 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick a mid expectations 2025 movie to make 500 million+ |
The shot: 1000/1 |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Sat Dec 28, 2024 9:09 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick a mid expectations 2025 movie to make 500 million+ |
Avatar, Wicked 2 and Zootopia 2 have the best shots to surpass $500m. I guess the biggest wildcard is Superman as its riding a wave of positive buzz due to the trailer. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Sat Dec 28, 2024 9:13 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick a mid expectations 2025 movie to make 500 million+ |
Superman is going to be another case of huge opening, average legs. You just know it. Could still open big enough to pass $500m though. |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Sat Dec 28, 2024 9:21 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick a mid expectations 2025 movie to make 500 million+ |
I think it gets to $400m but not $500m but it has a chance. More so than anything on the above list anyway. |
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| Author: | Shack [ Tue Apr 01, 2025 1:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick a mid expectations 2025 movie to make 500 million+ |
Minecraft really? |
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| Author: | O [ Fri Apr 04, 2025 11:34 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick a mid expectations 2025 movie to make 500 million+ |
Minecraft if it pulls $140M OW needs a 3.57X multiplier to get to $500M. Seems like a stretch but Easter in weekend 3 and the only family film for 7 weeks is vastly in its favor. Even a $150M+ total here domestic would have been a win for the film and its not going to be far from there in just its OW so it's already probably 2025's biggest winner. |
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| Author: | Shack [ Sun Apr 13, 2025 12:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick a mid expectations 2025 movie to make 500 million+ |
Minecraft's chance for this looks pretty good to me after -50% 2nd weekend. |
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| Author: | O [ Sun Apr 13, 2025 3:49 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick a mid expectations 2025 movie to make 500 million+ |
3.7X multiplier from this weekend on. Easter next weekend too and no family competition. At least $475M is looking good but lots of films coming out so still not set for $500M but much stronger. |
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| Author: | flip1 [ Tue Apr 15, 2025 3:06 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick a mid expectations 2025 movie to make 500 million+ |
don't think it's hitting 500m, it's already 75m behind Mario with worse holds and WOM |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Tue Apr 15, 2025 6:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Pick a mid expectations 2025 movie to make 500 million+ |
I think $450-475m is the target now. The Easter weekend hold will be the telling factor. |
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