The Little Mermaid
I think this one was going to be the next big one (it was likely releasing in 2021) until coronavirus took over. But since it’s likely to come out in 2022 or 2023, I’ll still do an analysis on it. The Little Mermaid and Hercules are the remakes that seem to be in the best hands. So let’s go over for a quick bit who’s behind TLM. We have Rob Marshall (Mary Poppins Returns) directing, Lin-Manuel Miranda AND Alan Menken doing the songs/music, and LMM is also co-producing with Marc Platt. Halle Bailey is playing Ariel and after watching her perform Almost There with her sister Chloe and Anika Noni Rose on the Disney Family Singalong, I’d say she’s perfect for the role. So this one is definitely in good hands. A performance similar to Aladdin/Alice/The Jungle Book is what I expect. Now let’s talk release date. This one feels like a summer release, so releasing it in the Memorial Day slot like Aladdin should benefit it, because it will have all summer to leg out to a good domestic total like Aladdin did.

OW range: $80-130M
TLM could go either way. We could see a performance of $80M (on par with Oz the Great and Powerful’s $79.1M) or a performance as high as $130M. I’ll jump right in the middle and say $110M. Comps I’m using are Aladdin, Alice in Wonderland, and The Jungle Book. It should perform right on par with or above these three.

Aladdin multi (3.89x)= $428M
Alice multi (2.88x)= $317M
TJB multi (3.52x)= $387M
The average from these 3 films here is about $377M.

Assuming it opens on Memorial Day weekend and has the same weekend 2 drop as Aladdin (which dropped only 53%; I expect reception from the GA to be similar), that would result in a second weekend performance of $52M and a 10-day total of $205M. Based on how Aladdin paced, we would see something like $205M 2nd wknd, $250M 3rd wknd, $285M 4th wknd, $310M 5th wknd, $330M 6th wknd, $345M 7th wknd, $360M 8th wknd, $370M 9th wknd, and $380M 10th wknd (I only did the first 10 weekends; it will probably play for at least 22 weeks like Aladdin did)

Aladdin 355.6/185.5= 1.92*205= $394M
Alice 334.2/209.3= 1.60*205= $328M
TJB 364/192.2= 1.89*205= $387M
The average from these films is $370M. I expect TLM to finish with about $400-410M, and if it releases on Memorial Day like I hope, then a Labor Day expansion could help boost it to the $400M mark if it doesn’t reach it before Labor Day (Aladdin legged throughout the summer with drops in the 20% and 30% range but then mid-August dropped 60% for 2 weekends and stopped at $355M). One thing to keep in mind is Alice was more frontloaded, whereas Aladdin and TJB were more leggy. I don’t expect an Aladdin multi (3.89x) at the present time, but a 3.6-3.7x (which is just above TJB’s 3.52x) would be reasonable IMO.

I’ll say about $110M OW, $400M DOM, $600-700M OS, and $1-1.1B WW (didn’t do a worldwide analysis since I’m not good at those IMO). I think worldwide $800M is a good floor, but honestly I’d be shocked not to see a $1B+ performance, cus IMO BatB, Aladdin, TLK, and The Little Mermaid were the 4 remakes that had the best chances at $1B. Alice only really did $1B because it had a 3D boost and came right after Avatar, but it wasn’t beloved (See: the mixed reception plus Alice 2 flopping big time). The Jungle Book was a great remake (and film overall) and nobody predicted it to do $967M, let alone $700-800M, before release. Once TLM hits $1B, then the racist little shits will shut up (in case you didn’t know, some people hated that they cast a black person-Halle Bailey-to play Ariel, but personally I don’t think it’s a big deal and they’re just being racist by hating on the casting choice)


Final prediction:

OW: $110M
DOM: $400M (37.4%)
OS: $670M (62.6%)
WW: $1.07B


Your thoughts?

huh. I skipped Aladdin, Beauty, and Lion King (and Aquaman), but somehow think I might want to see this one. (if I’m still alive and have spending money by the time it comes out!) Ariel’s my girl.

$400m opening weekend, $1.2billion total (domestic)

If the theater going habits become normal this could do $100m+ though just below Aladdin's $113m opening.
If theaters still remain dormant by then I guess it would be around $75m-$80m.

Yeah The Little Mermaid is the one remake I for sure have confidence in both quality-wise and box office-wise.