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| Onward analysis http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=86689 |
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| Author: | ReptileDysfunction7 [ Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Onward analysis |
I’m going to be doing an analysis on Pixar’s upcoming film Onward, a film about 2 teenage elf brothers trying to bring back their dad that died when they were too young to remember him. I’ll be taking a look at its box office potential. So Box Office Pro predicted it to have a $60M OW. Whereas Variety said $45M. So I’m gonn go in the middle and say $53M OW. One thing we must note is that spring family films haven’t been as leggy; Cinderella only had 2.96x and HTTYD3 had 2.92 (worst legs of the trilogy despite the best OW). Having Cinderella’s multi gets it to $157M, HTTYD3’s multi gets it to $155M, and BatB’s multi gets it to $153M. Those numbers seem rather low for a Pixar film. But I’m gonna compare it to Ratatouille, Coco, WALL•E, Cars, and Brave since it’s looking to finish somewhere in that ballpark. Ratatouille multi (4.39)= $233M Coco multi (4.13)= $219M WALL•E multi (3.55)= $188M Brave multi (3.58)= $190M Cars multi (4.06)= $215M These comps suggests a range of $185-235M, but keep in mind that Onward has to face Mulan in weekend 4. While Mulan is PG-13, it might still draw some families. For now I’ll say right at $200M for its total, but that depends on how much it gets affected by Mulan. And yes, Trolls World Tour does come out April 17, but Onward will already be well into its run by then. So my official prediction: $53M OW, $200M domestic, $300M OS, $500M WW |
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| Author: | Omni [ Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Onward analysis |
I'm afraid Onward's main problem won't be Mulan... |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Onward analysis |
Yes it's facing a bigger challenge than Mulan I think it might not cross $200m plus I don't think it will do $50m+ opening. $40m-$45m seems to be the target. I predicted $32m in the weekend prediction thread |
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| Author: | ReptileDysfunction7 [ Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Onward analysis |
Jack Sparrow wrote: Yes it's facing a bigger challenge than Mulan I think it might not cross $200m plus I don't think it will do $50m+ opening. $40m-$45m seems to be the target. I predicted $32m in the weekend prediction thread What bigger challenge? |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:44 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Onward analysis |
Corona Virus |
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| Author: | lilmac [ Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Onward analysis |
I haven’t seen signs that the virus is impacting domestic attendance.... |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:19 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Onward analysis |
Not yet but US just entered Top 10 countries that are affected climbing very quickly, most parents being over-protective have to get worried sometime soon |
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| Author: | Thegun [ Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Onward analysis |
Most parents would risk health over hearing their kids cry all day over missing a movie. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Onward analysis |
That's the first I am hearing about it but I guess it depends on perspective and maybe US parents have those tendencies. If that's the case then yeah it should do fine and have GREAT legs. |
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| Author: | Rolling Thunder [ Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:14 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Onward analysis |
If the U.S. doesn't find a way to get the virus under control, we will see an noticeable impact pretty soon. I've witnessed a number of hoarders in the store piling their carts full of Clorox wipes, sanitizer, etc. There is definitely a growing concern. And @Thegun, I'd rather have my kid cry a day over a movie than have him cry for weeks because of illness. |
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| Author: | Rev [ Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:59 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Onward analysis |
2 people got it in Atlanta (so far). A lady got it in Italy and traveled back home and passed it on to her husband. So for me shits getting real. I'm going to order my Bubble-Boy kit and never leave the house. |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Onward analysis |
Seattle is apparently a ghost town. It’s a small percentage of the country though. If or when it spreads to more areas, the effect will be noticeable. And it also doesn’t really affect children that badly. Not sure parents know that though or if it would affect their decisions. |
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| Author: | ReptileDysfunction7 [ Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:55 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Onward analysis |
Rev wrote: 2 people got it in Atlanta (so far). A lady got it in Italy and traveled back home and passed it on to her husband. So for me shits getting real. I'm going to order my Bubble-Boy kit and never leave the house. Oof. One of my friends is flying to Atlanta for spring break. |
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