I believe if the current infection rate holds, Pence says around 500k tests have been administered, then we'd be looking at 50 mil??!? people infected (if everyone in the US got tested).

Which at a 1.5% death rate, that's 750k deaths. I don't think it will get that bad, as places are on lockdown, distancing, etc. But even 75k deaths is a ton.

The article above estimates fatality rates will end up being 0.5% to 1.0%. I think it could be lower.

I think it could be higher. NY is at 1.2%, but states with worse healthcare systems (the south...) are going to have really bad rates. Atlanta is already at max capacity in their hospitals.

Germany is on the path of increasing case fatality rate, based on the growth of the number of new cases. 80% of its confirmed cases were reported in the last 10 days. Since it takes days/weeks for a case to complete its course (the duration between detection and recovery (or death)), the number of deaths has to lag the number of detected cases.

New York hospitals are overwhelmed. One doctor called it ‘apocalyptic’.

They have also predicted that with the testing capacity being stretched, there are more undetected cases, raising the fatality rate. I’m also certain that A strong majority of German cases are undetected since it’s still growing in the country. If half the cases were detected, it shouldn’t be growing given the social distancing measures.

If we don't call out the failure and demand accountability, they will double down and repeat the same mistakes. Look at the misinformation campaign some government is running now to rewrite history. They hunger for world trust and reputation. And they need to earn them.

Taiwan so far has managed to contain an epidemic and its effort is lauded as a model. But China has been blocking it from WHO membership and shut it out from the global pandemic response. It will cost lives if we don't call this out.

Mexico is on the verge of a health care collapse.

Randomized testing may give us an idea of how widespread the infection is. COVID-19 related hospitalizations as a percentage of all hospitalizations may tell us the severity of the disease.

Are there many patients with severe symptoms?

More testing will increase the number of known cases even if the overall new infection rate is going down. You simply have more confirmations. Outside of Italy though, I don’t think any non East Asian country is over the hump.

No country is over the hump until there's a god damn vaccine

Some funeral homes in Wuhan receiving shipments of 10,000 urns over two days.

Excellent video:

Not right now, but our government is limiting the testing to 10% of mild cases and 100% of severe cases. The problem here is us doctors at staring to get sick faster than any other country. Our staff went down considerably since our co-workers at risk were sent home and that left us at 70% capacity of an already overcrowded health Care system.

Read a headline: Rhode Island police hunt down New York travelers to force quarantine. That has to be a movie in a few years right?

Has been the case in India as well. Lots of people are not following lockdown measures there so the police have to force them.

I'm seeing next to no difference in traffic or with people being out and about post the stay-at-home orders. My book store was closed due to the stay-at-home orders, but my husband manages a pizza shop which is remaining open (carry-out & delivery) so I drive him to/from work. And along the way, I pass by a very small park (no larger than a baseball infield), and that park has been packed with no less than 25/30 people every single day.

And I've seen pictures from friends and families of crowds gathering by river/lake shores, parks (again), and gas stations. I just don't think many, or even most, are taking this seriously, and probably won't until they or someone close to them gets the virus. Unfortunately, it takes something hitting close to home for many to change their mindset.

It’s ok to go outside though, isn’t it? Parks and stuff should be safe as long as you keep social distance from those you don’t live with.

I think it's a matter of keeping your distance as well as not touching infected surfaces. If you touch somewhere with an infected droplet and touch your face/nose/mouth...

Go out and maintain social distance, but people aren't doing that. It just takes one person to infect an entire park, and then that park goes on to infect a neighborhood, etc.. While children are relatively safe if they contract the virus (at least based on what I last read), they're clearly the worst at spreading it by infecting surfaces.

But I also think the information, or lack thereof, about the "stay-at-home" orders hasn't been explained particularly well. My husband is now "required?" to carry a note (with all the acts and laws listed) provided to him from his employer stating that he can be out since he's an "essential employee" (food service) in the event the police would stop him. What happens in the event that, say, the police visit a park and none of the people there are "essential" and lack some sort of documentation for why they're out?

Is Pizza considered "essential" even if its a food service?

Personally, I'd say no. Most of their orders are going to the hospitals though, so I do understand why pizza (or other delivery services) or fast food restaurants could be considered "essential." Many CEOs of various food service companies convinced Trump (doubt he needed much convincing...) to consider them "essential businesses" before the closure announcements and stay-at-home orders began.

I'm in the middle regarding this situation. As I said, I understand how pizza shops or fast food restaurants can certainly help by providing quick and cheap meals for hospitals and such (and low income families), but it's also a high risk situation for the workers. And potentially for customers, too, if the restaurant isn't following strict standards. And let's be real: it's more about the higher ups wanting to make sure things remain "business as usual" (actual phrase used by my husband's employer).

Thankfully, my husband and I are financially stable and we've considered him taking time off in the near future, especially if the situation worsens. But he also has a lot of co-workers, and we know a number of people in general, who wouldn't have the funds for their rent, utilities, or much food even, if their workplace would close. So for them, taking time off to self-isolate isn't an option, and they'd be in a real bind if they lose their lobs.

It's not ok, please stay inside. Who am I gonna make fun off if u get sick?

For the love of KJ, stay yo ass inside