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 July 26-28 predictions 
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Extraordinary
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Post July 26-28 predictions
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - 3,500

I'm thinking an opening in the 50's.

3 weekends in a row with only one wide release. Dumb.


Fri Jul 19, 2019 3:27 pm
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Post Re: July 26-28 predictions
Not sure I'm sold on the idea of an uber-opening for OUATIH just yet.


Fri Jul 19, 2019 4:41 pm
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Defeats all expectations
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Post Re: July 26-28 predictions
Same here. I first thought DiCaprio would work magic in helping this open to $40m+. But this is a drama, not an effects-driven action movie. A $30m OW would be great.


Fri Jul 19, 2019 5:25 pm
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Post Re: July 26-28 predictions
i.hope wrote:
Same here. I first thought DiCaprio would work magic in helping this open to $40m+. But this is a drama, not an effects-driven action movie. A $30m OW would be great.


Gatsby opened to 50m. This has Pitt and its a QT movie.

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Fri Jul 19, 2019 5:28 pm
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Post Re: July 26-28 predictions
Keyser Söze wrote:
i.hope wrote:
Same here. I first thought DiCaprio would work magic in helping this open to $40m+. But this is a drama, not an effects-driven action movie. A $30m OW would be great.


Gatsby opened to 50m. This has Pitt and its a QT movie.


Gatsby was adapted from a classic novel and well-known across generations. This is an original movie with a throwback theme, not unlike Death Proof and Jackie Brown.


Fri Jul 19, 2019 5:42 pm
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Post Re: July 26-28 predictions
I think OUATIH is going to be one of the most over predicted movies of the year. Just a hunch though.

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Fri Jul 19, 2019 5:52 pm
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Post Re: July 26-28 predictions
I could see it going either way. I think with the caliber of the talent involved, literally nothing but Disney movies as competition/open marketplace this should clear at least 30m.


Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:34 pm
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Post Re: July 26-28 predictions
It should make $50-55m. The QT factor plus the big name stars plus the thirst for an original adult pic should get it there. It's biggest weakness is it could be seen as a bit of an "inside Hollywood" film which could hurt it.

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Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:43 pm
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Post Re: July 26-28 predictions
Man I was so confident that OUATIH was going to open to $60-$70M a couple of months ago, but now I'm not so sure. I honestly don't believe the tv spots have been all that great and they seem to be relying very heavily on the starpower of Leo and Pitt instead of actually advertising what the movie is really about which could hurt it's appeal with mainstream audiences. I think $35-$45M is a pretty fair range for it, although I'd love to see it go higher.


Fri Jul 19, 2019 11:09 pm
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Post Re: July 26-28 predictions
$32M OW.

The first trailer made it look really sedated, the second trailer was a lot better but too little too late. This should've been a slam dunk but they really avoided the Manson connection and that's what would've made it more appealing. Right now this just looks like a bunch of big names in a Hwood circle jerk. You can't tell the plot from the trailer unlike Inglorious Bastards ("let's kill Nazis!") and Django ("let's free my wife!"). Notice how despite it being the 50th anniversary of the murders there's been very little media recognition of that? I would bet anything that's Sony's PR department at work, making sure that the film isn't considered "problematic" for exploiting a murder.

Perhaps this is just from my vantage point, but despite the star power, Tarantino, and the Manson connection the movie doesn't seem to have sparked any major conversation like everyone thought it would. Where are the memes, the viral talk show moments, the widely-shared articles, the controversy, the moment in the trailer everyone is talking about? Maybe Leo made a mistake waiting like four years after his last role, and Brad's appeal was always his looks but he's old now. Margot is great but she's not a draw.

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Sat Jul 20, 2019 2:27 am
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Post Re: July 26-28 predictions
People questioning Leo's draw power. Lather, rinse, repeat.

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Sun Jul 21, 2019 9:28 am
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Post Re: July 26-28 predictions
Wide open for an adult demo film. See over fifty.


Sun Jul 21, 2019 5:02 pm
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Post Re: July 26-28 predictions
Yes the buzz doesnt feel as strong as I would have expected (but maybe that's because it doesnt open here until mid August) but it adult audiences are clamouring for something to go and see and being a QT film with big stars - I cant see it going below $50m.

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Sun Jul 21, 2019 10:40 pm
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Post Re: July 26-28 predictions
its PS and final walk ins have been phenomenal. It sold out all 3 70mm at Arclight Hollywood (968 seater). Doing great in most cities I checked. its previews should be at least 5m and I am thinking closer to 7m.

OW - 60m.

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Thu Jul 25, 2019 11:24 pm
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Post Re: July 26-28 predictions
Awesome! It is an event in itself. Interviews with the cast (mainly Leo, Brad, Margo and QT) have been fantastic and engaging. Reviews are excellent. The buzz is building!

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Thu Jul 25, 2019 11:50 pm
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Post Re: July 26-28 predictions
1. THE LION KING - 84.379 MILLION (-56%)
2. ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD - 35.7 MILLION (New)
3. SPIDER-MAN: FAR FROM HOME - 12.297 MILLION (-42%)
4. TOY STORY 4 - 11.041 MILLION (-29%)
5. YESTERDAY - 3.916 MILLION (-22%)
6. CRAWL - 3.474 MILLION (-43%)
7. ALADDIN - 2.859 MILLION (-30%)
8. THE FAREWELL - 2.335 MILLION
9. STUBER - 2.098 MILLION
(-49%)
10. ANNABELLE COMES HOME - 1.43 MILLION (-45%)
11. AVENGERS: ENDGAME - 1.060 MILLION (-30%)
12. THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS 2 - $859,636 (-44%)
13. MIDSOMMAR - $814,187 (-49%)


I actually think Hollywood might do better than this as it performed well at my theater Thursday night and seems to be in others as well. But it could maybe be a bit front-loaded too with Tarantino fans coming out right away.

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Fri Jul 26, 2019 5:22 am
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Post Re: July 26-28 predictions
TLK - 90m
OUATIH - 50m
SP:FFA - 13m
TS4 - 12m
Yes - 4m

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Fri Jul 26, 2019 8:08 am
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