You have to wait for the weekend. I expect a better Friday increase than IW because of runtime. The Tuesday drop happened because the Monday number was unusually high.

Tuesday was a 33.9% retention from the pure Friday. IW's Tuesday was a 34.79% retention. Fairly identical, since Monday was a 37.8% retention for Endgame, and IW was a 36.7% retention.

It's very, very likely that Endgame drops 55% almost on the dot this weekend.

its OW run was extraordinary. True Friday gross of 97m, sat at 109m and sunday at 90m. I don’t know how 2nd weekend will play anywhere close. Looking around in Fandango, I see good pre-sales but no where like a 170m opener. It should do better with walk ins but its going to drop big(like 55%+). I am thinking 150m for 2nd weekend which is a humongous number. Its facing big openers starting next weekend with Pikachu. So it will not be able to retain the ginormous number of screens/showtimes. Also it will start to lose PLF screens. 900m is still an unbelievable number and this did not benefit by not opening over holidays like TFA.

Runtime makes it more of a weekend movie.

Comparing it to the weekend as a whole is relevant to the weekend drop because the lower numbers Saturday and Sunday mean a better hold because it’s dropping from a lower weekend (lower meaning daily percentage by comparison).

Not everyone sold out over the weekend will see it on the weekdays, many will wait for the weekend.

You can’t compare presales for a 2nd week to an opener.

It will indeed be at $1.7b before the weekend beings but that leaves it with another $1b. It will be close but I think it will eventually reach the mark or Disney will make sure it gets there.

My prediction before the weekend $475 domestically and $1.7b WW. From here on

$930m domestically for another $425m
China another $150m total (I don't see it going much higher than $600m there specially after holidays)
OS another $550m (could go as high as $600m)

would give it at additional $1.125b-$1.175b from here on.

For a total of $2.825b-$2.875b (that lower range is very close to $2.788b of Avatar, so it needs to hold really well from here on)

I can't believe people still doubt this will pass TFA. Even if Endgame drops 60% (hint: that is not going to happen) for the next 4 weekends it will already be at $800 million. 55% drops for next 4 weekends is nearly $850. 50% drops is over $910...after 5 weekends. TFA is going down, it is inevitable unless there is an absolutely mammoth drop this weekend. $1 Billion domestic is certainly in play, and likely considering Disney will push for it.

If I am still allowed into the club, I am in.

If Endgame's weekly drops are exactly same as IW it gets to $953m but I feel going forward it will drop slightly bigger than IW over weekdays which I feel will also translate into bigger drops over weekends as well.

I just did drops for Endgame at 60% for next 4 weeks (If its dropping 60% over weekends I feel the weekday drops will be bigger with the runtime) and it comes to $783m. Ofcourse its not going to drop that big but the competition on its third weekend is bigger than IW and then when Solo opened IW dropped 41% whereas I feel Aladdin will be bigger during Memorial day weekend and will take away bigger chunk of families than an SW movie.

Endgame will be around 630 million by end of weekend.

THIS IS HAPPENING!!!

Sorry guys, I don't see this happening. Won't even beat TFA.

UNLESS the weekend drops are soft.






I'm using IW's daily pace as a guide and it's 3.6% behind the track for $937M. Again, using IW's daily gross as a ratio of it's final $678M+

Ahead when looking at a final gross of $900M

Endgame has thus far evened out with IW's weekly drops with bigger drop Tuesday and better drop Wednesday. Unless the coming weekend is significantly better SW7's weekdays will cover $10m+ difference everyday.

Rev Endgame started with $110m lead over SW7 and by end of next weekend that would have shrunk to $90m (with predicted $630m). In its second week SW7 had $31m, $29m, $28m, $22m which would essentially mean bigger weekdays than Endgame's current weekdays. With $155m weekend and IW's drops the total after Endgame's second week would be about $685m and SW7 did $651m.

After this weekend comes Pickachu so...

Ha! Endgame ain’t scared of that stupid little yellow rabbit or whatever the fuck he is.

Regardless the advantage of bigger weekends will go away after 2nd weekend as SW7 did $90m in its 3rd weekend and loss of PLF screens will be big blow for Endgame

Endgame will do 90m + 3rd weekend
It’s 2nd weekend will top 180m

THIS IS HAPPENING!

Endgame says fuck to past movies data!

So BOM says, that Fandango reports, Endgame currently is getting 85% more repeat business then IW did at this point.

180m 2nd weekend coming right up

So Wednesday was a 25.9% retention from Friday, while IW had a 25.2% retention.

Monday: EG - 37.8%, IW - 36.7% (EG +1.1%)
Tuesday: EG - 33.9%, IW - 34.8% (EG -0.9%)
Wednesday: EG - 25.9%, IW - 25.2% (EG +0.7%)

For Thursday, IW had a 23.02% retention, with that, EG Thursday would be about $22.4 mil.

Monday: EG - 37.8%, IW - 36.7% (EG +1.1%)
Tuesday: EG - 33.9%, IW - 34.8% (EG -0.9%)
Wednesday: EG - 25.9%, IW - 25.2% (EG +0.7%)
Thursday: EG - 22.1%, IW - 23.0% (EG -0.9%)

IW had an average weekday gross of $20,158,589.25 ($80,634,357/4), while EG has an average weekday gross of $29,194,907.75 ($116,779,631/4). That's a daily retention from Friday percentage of 29.955% for EG, and 29.938% for IW.

Negligible difference. SO! IW had a 52.48% retention on weekend 2 from weekend 1 (minus previews), which leads to a $155,829,677 mil 2nd weekend for EG (a 56.4% total drop)

This week was definitely boosted for EG by spillover effect on Monday and Tuesday. I don't think it will be close next week. Like the idea of these tough Chippy

Most I can see is just barely squeaking past TFA

The power of the infinity stones will propel Endgame to a billion dollars or else we ALL perish

This is a great club considering how ridiculous it looked when it was started. Its going to at least gross 900m. So irrespective of anything kudos to Rev for making a brave call.

I see $920-$930, unless by some kind of Disney voodoo it squeaks by.

$900m is a lock though.

Thank you Keyser Soze