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I think Madagascar is going to underperform.
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Author:  baumer72 [ Tue May 24, 2005 12:49 am ]
Post subject:  I think Madagascar is going to underperform.
I have been waiting a while to actually post this, but I feel teh time is right. This film just doesn't have that intangible feel to it...that feel that just says it is going to explode at the box office. I know this is the time of year that kids movies excel at the box office and there all kinds of other kids films that point teh way to this one being a giant, but I just don't feel it from this one.

First of all, I think Sith is going for teh same market and there is a very real possibility that it will drop about 40% next weekend. That would put it at about 65 mill for teh three days and maybe 75 for 4. That is a lot of coin gone that coudl go to Madagascar.

Secondly, I have seen the trailers for this numerous times and no one has really seemed overly thrilled with the film. Now I don';t think that just because this is Dreamworks that this is going to clean up. I know there are some good names associated with teh film, but enough to maek it a smash? I don't think so.

I think this will be much more like a Shark's Tale than a Nemo. I think SW is still going strong and therefore you could see an opening of about 50 mill for it. Very good, but not mammoth. A final tally would be about 185-200...again, great numbers but not Nemo type numbers.

Just a thought.
Author:  jb007 [ Tue May 24, 2005 12:57 am ]
Post subject: 
I use my daughter's reactions for assessing kids' movies. She can hardly wait for this to open. I think it will do well. It will not do as well as I had envisioned till a month ago because of ROTS.

$55/Low 200's.
Author:  MadGez [ Tue May 24, 2005 1:08 am ]
Post subject: 
I just can see this making any more than $220m. That would be the absolute cap for me. It wil probably be more like $175-$190m - which will still be a great gross but not the megablockbuster some are expecting.
Author:  Terminator1997 [ Tue May 24, 2005 1:12 am ]
Post subject: 
it's getting less than stellar reviews so far, but this is a pretty review-proof film, considering kids could care less about them, but it may turn off some adults.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/madagascar/

right now i'll say $52/$190
Author:  BJ [ Tue May 24, 2005 1:33 am ]
Post subject: 
agreed it will underperform for opening wknd do to star wars but I expect awesome legs and a multiplyer in the 5.0 range
Author:  Box [ Tue May 24, 2005 2:06 am ]
Post subject: 
I'm both very very happy, and somewhat saddened to hear that. Happy, because I'm a Pixar whore and loathe DW, and sad because I predicted really high for this film.
Author:  Mesjarch [ Tue May 24, 2005 4:21 am ]
Post subject: 
Well it's all rotten in the cream of the crop at Rottentomatoes so far. :roll:
Author:  zingy [ Tue May 24, 2005 6:20 am ]
Post subject: 
It'll make a respectable amount, just less than The Incredibles, probably. I see no way how this can pass $300 million, though.
Author:  xXVincentxX [ Tue May 24, 2005 6:36 am ]
Post subject: 
It will do great, but nothing compared to Shrek 2.

58/220
Author:  Michael. [ Tue May 24, 2005 7:59 am ]
Post subject: 
Should really perform, this film has been buzzed since before Shark Tale even saw a theater. Its marketing is fantastic and the trailers were very very effective in theaters.

Id say around $230m.
Author:  baumer72 [ Tue May 24, 2005 8:19 am ]
Post subject: 
I guess we are all predicting between 175 and 230 for the film. That is very good obviously, but I just don't think it is going to be that mammoth hit that some have predicted. I have heard many people here saying that they think 300 mill is possible. I just don't see that.
Author:  Mesjarch [ Tue May 24, 2005 9:57 am ]
Post subject: 
Zingaling wrote:
It'll make a respectable amount, just less than The Incredibles, probably. I see no way how this can pass $300 million, though.


Well it better for DW or it won't be even close to ROTS on the weekend. So far it getting worse :wink:
Author:  JMorphin [ Tue May 24, 2005 9:59 am ]
Post subject: 
I dunno, I still think it still has a shot at #1 for the year, just edging ROTS. ROTS had a great opening, but so what? History shows that big weekends are followed by big drops, Spiderman being the exception (because of no real competition 2nd weekend). I just don't see ROTS holding well with Madagascar and Longest Yard opening. Madagascar has wide wide appeal, just like the Pixar movies and Shrek. This is no Robots. And this movie is not depending on the old adult audience as much, so reviews won't matter too much either. And summer weekdays are going to boost this beast. I'm not saying it will make as much as Finding Nemo total, but with the success of the Shrek movies and moderate hit of Shark Tale, I just don't see this movie underperforming just because there's one big movie in the marketplace already. Last year proved that we can have multiple big movies, so I say Madagascar has a shot at 90 million 4-day, though right now I have it at 88. I actually don't think the marketing has been weak at all. People have been asking about Madagascar for MONTHs at my theater :wink:
Author:  Anita Hussein Briem [ Tue May 24, 2005 10:17 am ]
Post subject: 
Madagascar will open well, with all the marketing and whatnot. However, its legs may prove inferior if the film is as bad as critics say; kids can spread negative WOM too. Remember the 95%+ ratings Pixar movies garner; this is a far cry from such immaculate perfection.
Author:  bABA [ Tue May 24, 2005 10:20 am ]
Post subject: 
i think its important to understand for many complaining about the lack of advertising is that we don't sit and watch children's shows. whenever i switch on teletoons or YTV for some stupid kiddie show i like watching, the commercials are littered .. otherwise .. they're not.

Other than finding nemo, i never really saw commericials for any kiddie flicks cept at theatres.
Author:  Bradley Witherberry [ Tue May 24, 2005 11:08 am ]
Post subject: 
jb007 wrote:
I use my daughter's reactions for assessing kids' movies. She can hardly wait for this to open. I think it will do well. It will not do as well as I had envisioned till a month ago because of ROTS.

$55/Low 200's.


The kids I've seen it with were underwhelmed - I'm staying with the under performing camp - 47/198...
Author:  Anonymous [ Tue May 24, 2005 11:41 am ]
Post subject: 
I've never had love for this film. It just doesn't look very good. Hopefully, I'll be surprised on Friday.
Author:  movies35 [ Tue May 24, 2005 11:41 am ]
Post subject: 
Nobody is talking about it and there are hardly any tv spots. It should open around $40 million and end up with $120 million.
Author:  Riggs [ Tue May 24, 2005 11:50 am ]
Post subject: 
I see this movie making less than Shark Tale. It just looks like a bomb to me. $38/$111
Author:  movies35 [ Tue May 24, 2005 12:09 pm ]
Post subject: 
Riggs27 wrote:
I see this movie making less than Shark Tale. It just looks like a bomb to me. $38/$111


Yeah, those are definetely "bomb" kind of numbers :???:
Author:  A. G. [ Tue May 24, 2005 12:39 pm ]
Post subject: 
185-200 would be excellent for this film. I expect this to be the "number 1 was never number 1 movie" of the year. Not winning any weekends but flying below radar and doing decently and having good legs.

It looks dumb to me but hey, kids do not have highly sophisticated senses of humor. The movie has got talking animals and at least attempts to be cute and light, that might be enough. Putting myself in the shoes of a parent who might take a child to this, one could do worse, it doesn't look painful for a parent to sit through the way some kids movies are.

Prediction: better than Shark Tale but not as big as Nemo. 185-200 sounds about right.
Author:  MGKC [ Tue May 24, 2005 12:43 pm ]
Post subject: 
Riggs27 wrote:
I see this movie making less than Shark Tale. It just looks like a bomb to me. $38/$111

I guarantee that it's impossible for this movie to have a multiplier less than 3.
Author:  baumer72 [ Tue May 24, 2005 12:50 pm ]
Post subject: 
Archie Gates wrote:
185-200 would be excellent for this film. I expect this to be the "number 1 was never number 1 movie" of the year. Not winning any weekends but flying below radar and doing decently and having good legs.

It looks dumb to me but hey, kids do not have highly sophisticated senses of humor. The movie has got talking animals and at least attempts to be cute and light, that might be enough. Putting myself in the shoes of a parent who might take a child to this, one could do worse, it doesn't look painful for a parent to sit through the way some kids movies are.

Prediction: better than Shark Tale but not as big as Nemo. 185-200 sounds about right.


That's how I feel also. Obviously very good numbers, but just not huge ones like Nemo.
Author:  DP07 [ Tue May 24, 2005 12:57 pm ]
Post subject: 
Hitokiri Battousai wrote:
Madagascar will open well, with all the marketing and whatnot. However, its legs may prove inferior if the film is as bad as critics say; kids can spread negative WOM too. Remember the 95%+ ratings Pixar movies garner; this is a far cry from such immaculate perfection.


Yes, but who is to say the reviews are an indication of WOM? Shark Tale had a low RT score, yet studio polling had it at 82% saying it was good or excellent, and that was followed up by good legs, an oscar nomination, and strong DVD sales.
Author:  DP07 [ Tue May 24, 2005 1:01 pm ]
Post subject: 
JMorphin wrote:
I dunno, I still think it still has a shot at #1 for the year, just edging ROTS. ROTS had a great opening, but so what? History shows that big weekends are followed by big drops, Spiderman being the exception (because of no real competition 2nd weekend). I just don't see ROTS holding well with Madagascar and Longest Yard opening. Madagascar has wide wide appeal, just like the Pixar movies and Shrek. This is no Robots. And this movie is not depending on the old adult audience as much, so reviews won't matter too much either. And summer weekdays are going to boost this beast. I'm not saying it will make as much as Finding Nemo total, but with the success of the Shrek movies and moderate hit of Shark Tale, I just don't see this movie underperforming just because there's one big movie in the marketplace already. Last year proved that we can have multiple big movies, so I say Madagascar has a shot at 90 million 4-day, though right now I have it at 88. I actually don't think the marketing has been weak at all. People have been asking about Madagascar for MONTHs at my theater :wink:


I agree as I think there is still a chance at it becoming the top film of the year. Chances are though that 2 or 3 films will beat it, however, I think it stands an excellent shot at both 70m for the 3 day, and 300m in total.
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