I think that Wrinkle will lose about 100m. Something can probably lose more

Some of that gaggle of films coming out in December really need to find better release dates. Mortal Engines and Alita in particular.

Alita "already found its better release date", lol. I was set for July. I think it's staying put now.

With the release date in December I think Alita could leg its way to a bigger total but its production budget seems to be considerably higher as well. So I'd say domestically Alita but WW it maybe close but RPO.

I got Avatar vibes with the Alita trailer. Watch it again and you might too...in the beginning. Yet, I think RPO will trounce Alita, domestically and overseas

RPO should do OK number.

Alita moved??

WTF! December 21!!!!!!
Aquaman, Bumblebee & now Alita all opening same day. Not cool!

Akita..hmmm

Akita would be a better name. Sounds more Japanese. Like Akira.

Welp. Ready Player One didn't flop.


Alita has a solid release date but it screams flop in theaters and then becomes a cult hit. May do well overseas.

Alita will likely gross similar to Ready Player One

That would be great! Totally won’t happen but it’d be a huge plus for the industry. The “big budget movie without an established brand” types could really use a win.

Movie seems like it is being dumped though. I haven’t seen any ads during the NFL playoffs.

It’s been over a year since the first trailer dropped. Sheesh.

There's a new one that got me hyped.

Ready Player One
Domestic - 137m
International - 441m

Alita Battle Angel
Domestic - 100/150m
International - 600/700m

Yeah I don't see Alita doing RPO numbers domestically, but OS it could be a completely different story. That's where its going to make most of its money anyways.

First big tv spot was ... rough. Its almost all corny deep voice narration guy. FROM THE PRODUCERS OF AVATAR COMES THE MOST EPIC 3D EVENT. PREPARE FOR BATTLE.

I saw a trailer yesterday and thought ‘this will bomb domestically but could very likely do extremely well overseas”

The only caveat is the director. Cameron has a pulse on what people want. Our zeitgeist. It’s a big reason why Avatar made $2.7bn and $1.9bn respectively.

It's not 2009 anymore. Issa bomb.

Also in my defense, RPO would've lost money without the insane Chinese performance.

The lack of competition may end up helping Alita. If reviews are good and the marketing improves - it has a chance at $100m.

I wonder if the general public is savvy enough to know the distinction between "From the Producers of Avatar and Titanic" or "Produced by the Makers of Avatar and Titanic"

vs.

"From the Director of Avatar and Titanic"

I think they are. "From the filmmakers of 'Lord of the Rings'" didn't do ANYTHING for Mortal Engines.

The GP may be dumb about a lot of things but they understand the gravitas that the word 'Director' carries. When it's a word salad or other terms like 'Filmmaker', 'Producers', etc., it doesn't carry the same weight in people's eyes.

Yep the studios have been trying to use the "from the makers/producers of" trick for years and it rarely works. Certainly doesn't these days.

Though I do think the lack of strong competition and early good word may help Alita avoid bombing (i.e. over $100m domestic and much more OS).

I have Alita going full Mortal Engines and opening under 10 million

I love when Shack makes a prediction. I have fond memories that the sun might shine, and didn't think it would happen