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 Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019) 

Domestic gross
Poll ended at Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:55 am
Less than $450m 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
$450m-500m 6%  6%  [ 2 ]
$500m-550m 6%  6%  [ 2 ]
$550m-600m 16%  16%  [ 5 ]
$600m-650m 28%  28%  [ 9 ]
$650m-700m 13%  13%  [ 4 ]
$700m-750m 16%  16%  [ 5 ]
$750m-800m 9%  9%  [ 3 ]
$800m-850m 3%  3%  [ 1 ]
$850m-900m 3%  3%  [ 1 ]
$900m-950m 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
$950m-1b 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
more than $1b 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 32

 Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019) 
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
I'm also starting think an opening closer to $180-$190M is more likely now too. If it does do $200M+ though with good WOM it should still be able to top TLJ's domestic total.


Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:40 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
I still think this explodes but damn did they fuck out but not making one more film. It doesn't feel ready for an ending at all

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Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:58 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Honestly agreed. All the characters are severely underdeveloped, and I loved TFA and TLJ for the most part.


Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:59 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
They feel underdeveloped cause TLJ is a failure to properly make any new character interesting outside Rey/Kylo. Poe and Finn are still mildly interesting at best. Like, if Poe and Finn die in this movie, is anyone outside die hard fans gonna feel much from it?

Yes, the smaller gap between film and the influx of non-episode SW films has made SW feel less epic. But TLJ really is still the biggest culprit.

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Thu Nov 28, 2019 2:53 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Frozen 2 shows that a holiday the following week can deflate an opening, but SW is a totally different sort of franchise. Like, how much did thanksgiving deflate the twilight openers? Not much.


Thu Nov 28, 2019 3:09 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
I would say HP is a better comparison.

Also, even if you equate it to a 5% difference, that’s potentially +/- 10m. I would say it’s probably more like a potential 10% difference so see it opening potentially 20m lower.

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MadGez wrote:
Listen to Magnus he knows his shit.
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Magnus is right
trixster wrote:
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Loyal wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Magnus is the fucking voice of reason.
That's scary.
bABA wrote:
fuck Magnus
zwackerm wrote:
You're incredibly overrated and and if they made a Pixar film about you it would gross less than The Good Dinosaur.


Thu Nov 28, 2019 3:31 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
The TV spot that just played during football was pretty epic mainly cause it used Duel of Fates. While I don’t personally want too much marketing as I want to be as unexposed to the film as I can be, I do think Disney has to go all out in December and market the fuck out of it. They will have to create hype to get people outside the base excited

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MadGez wrote:
Listen to Magnus he knows his shit.
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
Magnus is right
trixster wrote:
magnus is my hero
Loyal wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Magnus is the fucking voice of reason.
That's scary.
bABA wrote:
fuck Magnus
zwackerm wrote:
You're incredibly overrated and and if they made a Pixar film about you it would gross less than The Good Dinosaur.


Thu Nov 28, 2019 4:00 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Nobody knows or cares that this is the end. It reminds of how they hyped THE DARK KNIGHT RISES as the "finale" when 75% of it's audience were just tuning in with the prior episode which set up so many openings. Not sure why so many feel compelled to stick with the "trilogy" thing.

I loved THE LAST JEDI but only a fool would't realize it was really just the end of the story started in TFA. It def felt we were about to enter the middle phase of the story, not end it.

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Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:24 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Magnus wrote:
They feel underdeveloped cause TLJ is a failure to properly make any new character interesting outside Rey/Kylo. Poe and Finn are still mildly interesting at best. Like, if Poe and Finn die in this movie, is anyone outside die hard fans gonna feel much from it?

Yes, the smaller gap between film and the influx of non-episode SW films has made SW feel less epic. But TLJ really is still the biggest culprit.


This is dumb.

TFA/TLJ/TROS are part of a 9 film saga. With the two main characters being very wholly developed. They did a great job with Han in TFA, Luke in TLJ. And clearly this was supposed to end with a huge Leia moment. Because that's what the saga is about.

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Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:05 am
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
it’s dumb that they screwed up a brand so strong as SW in two years.

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MadGez wrote:
Listen to Magnus he knows his shit.
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
Magnus is right
trixster wrote:
magnus is my hero
Loyal wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Magnus is the fucking voice of reason.
That's scary.
bABA wrote:
fuck Magnus
zwackerm wrote:
You're incredibly overrated and and if they made a Pixar film about you it would gross less than The Good Dinosaur.


Fri Nov 29, 2019 1:07 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
the only thing they screwed up was Solo. and that's almost entirely because they fired Lord/Miller. TLJ got massive reviews and massive box office. it's easily the best film of the series.

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shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element

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Fri Nov 29, 2019 1:09 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
if you think TLJ didnt damage the brand you're naive. The fact that we're even debating whether this will break 600m (it will but its still a debate) is evident of that.

This should be frankly doing in the 750m-800m range but we're so unsure of how the reception of TLJ affected audiences that we don't feel confident in going to that place.

_________________
MadGez wrote:
Listen to Magnus he knows his shit.
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
Magnus is right
trixster wrote:
magnus is my hero
Loyal wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Magnus is the fucking voice of reason.
That's scary.
bABA wrote:
fuck Magnus
zwackerm wrote:
You're incredibly overrated and and if they made a Pixar film about you it would gross less than The Good Dinosaur.


Fri Nov 29, 2019 1:50 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
It didn't damage the brand. The fact that it's direct sequel is about to open to $200 mil and outgross it literally proves that. Oh, also, Mandalorian is a HUGE hit.

But sure, the brand is "damaged". get your incel ass out of here.

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shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element

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chippy is correct

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Fri Nov 29, 2019 1:59 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
TLJ is Hated by far more than just the “incel” crowd. I’m literally the only person I know who likes it. Even I admit it’s deeply flawed. While it may not have significantly hurt the brand, it did little to excite people for Episode 9.

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Fri Nov 29, 2019 2:03 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
It's not though. That's not even close to being true. The numbers don't even back that up.

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shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element

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Fri Nov 29, 2019 2:06 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Chippy wrote:
It's not though. That's not even close to being true. The numbers don't even back that up.

What numbers are you talking about? The box office? It didn’t exactly have a strong multiplier.

Who are you talking to that loves the film so much? Critics? Critics and audiences aren’t always gonna like the same thing.

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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Chippy wrote:
IThe fact that it's direct sequel is about to open to $200 mil and outgross it literally proves that.


you seem to be confusing the fact that the SW brand is still massive vs. the brand getting damaged.

Like, the peak of this franchise was so huge that Endgame with a 357m OW couldn't even get within 75m of its domestic record. This is going to post big numbers.

That doesn't change the fact that this film feels right now to be doing way lower than the end of a SW trilogy should be doing given the history.

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MadGez wrote:
Listen to Magnus he knows his shit.
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
Magnus is right
trixster wrote:
magnus is my hero
Loyal wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Magnus is the fucking voice of reason.
That's scary.
bABA wrote:
fuck Magnus
zwackerm wrote:
You're incredibly overrated and and if they made a Pixar film about you it would gross less than The Good Dinosaur.


Fri Nov 29, 2019 2:12 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
zwackerm wrote:
Chippy wrote:
It's not though. That's not even close to being true. The numbers don't even back that up.

What numbers are you talking about? The box office? It didn’t exactly have a strong multiplier.


*insert Michael Scott "THANK YOU" gif*

_________________
MadGez wrote:
Listen to Magnus he knows his shit.
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
Magnus is right
trixster wrote:
magnus is my hero
Loyal wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Magnus is the fucking voice of reason.
That's scary.
bABA wrote:
fuck Magnus
zwackerm wrote:
You're incredibly overrated and and if they made a Pixar film about you it would gross less than The Good Dinosaur.


Fri Nov 29, 2019 2:13 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Magnus wrote:
zwackerm wrote:
Chippy wrote:
It's not though. That's not even close to being true. The numbers don't even back that up.

What numbers are you talking about? The box office? It didn’t exactly have a strong multiplier.


*insert Michael Scott "THANK YOU" gif*


Yep, y'all got me. A 2.8 multiplier off a $220 mil OW. YOU GOT ME! (Endgame had a 2.4 multiplier, IW had a 2.63, they must be the most hated films of all time)

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trixster wrote:
shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element

trixster wrote:
chippy is correct

Rev wrote:
Fuck Trump


Fri Nov 29, 2019 2:22 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
TLJ and Rogue One had similar preview/OW ratio and had similar daily drops over their first six days, indicating that there wasn't a significant difference in their natural upfront/frontloadedness.

Yet, TLJ gets a 2.81 multiplier and RO got a 3.43. And if you dig deeper, TLJ OW (minus previews) to total (minus previews) was 3.28. Rogue One, which opened the same spot similar ratio was 3.71.

Rogue One had good/very good WOM. TLJ being below it in all measurable metrics is a strong indication that TLJ did not have a similar reception.

_________________
MadGez wrote:
Listen to Magnus he knows his shit.
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
Magnus is right
trixster wrote:
magnus is my hero
Loyal wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Magnus is the fucking voice of reason.
That's scary.
bABA wrote:
fuck Magnus
zwackerm wrote:
You're incredibly overrated and and if they made a Pixar film about you it would gross less than The Good Dinosaur.


Fri Nov 29, 2019 2:23 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Magnus wrote:
Chippy wrote:
IThe fact that it's direct sequel is about to open to $200 mil and outgross it literally proves that.


you seem to be confusing the fact that the SW brand is still massive vs. the brand getting damaged.

Like, the peak of this franchise was so huge that Endgame with a 357m OW couldn't even get within 75m of its domestic record. This is going to post big numbers.

That doesn't change the fact that this film feels right now to be doing way lower than the end of a SW trilogy should be doing given the history.


The most anticipated film in the Star Wars series got the box office at a perfect time... and couldn't come within $100 mil OW of the 21st Marvel film.

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trixster wrote:
shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element

trixster wrote:
chippy is correct

Rev wrote:
Fuck Trump


Fri Nov 29, 2019 2:23 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Magnus wrote:
TLJ and Rogue One had similar preview/OW ratio and had similar daily drops over their first six days, indicating that there wasn't a significant difference in their natural upfront/frontloadedness.

Yet, TLJ gets a 2.81 multiplier and RO got a 3.43. And if you dig deeper, TLJ OW (minus previews) to total (minus previews) was 3.28. Rogue One, which opened the same spot similar ratio was 3.71.

Rogue One had good/very good WOM. TLJ being below it in all measurable metrics is a strong indication that TLJ did not have a similar reception.


Rogue One had great WOM, you sniveling fool. Mouth breathers can't shut up about how much they love that film.

_________________
trixster wrote:
shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element

trixster wrote:
chippy is correct

Rev wrote:
Fuck Trump


Fri Nov 29, 2019 2:24 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
you're confusing upfront demand with overall demand. Endgame had more upfront demand than TFA (and was also better suited for people to rush out by being released at the end of April vs. being released one week before Xmas).

I don't think we can say there was a difference between the two films in overall demand. TFA was insanely anticipated.

_________________
MadGez wrote:
Listen to Magnus he knows his shit.
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
Magnus is right
trixster wrote:
magnus is my hero
Loyal wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Magnus is the fucking voice of reason.
That's scary.
bABA wrote:
fuck Magnus
zwackerm wrote:
You're incredibly overrated and and if they made a Pixar film about you it would gross less than The Good Dinosaur.


Fri Nov 29, 2019 2:26 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Chippy wrote:
Magnus wrote:
TLJ and Rogue One had similar preview/OW ratio and had similar daily drops over their first six days, indicating that there wasn't a significant difference in their natural upfront/frontloadedness.

Yet, TLJ gets a 2.81 multiplier and RO got a 3.43. And if you dig deeper, TLJ OW (minus previews) to total (minus previews) was 3.28. Rogue One, which opened the same spot similar ratio was 3.71.

Rogue One had good/very good WOM. TLJ being below it in all measurable metrics is a strong indication that TLJ did not have a similar reception.


Rogue One had great WOM, you sniveling fool. Mouth breathers can't shut up about how much they love that film.


even if we take that premise to be true (I don't think it is), it actually still proves that TLJ didn't have great WOM according to THE NUMBERS.

_________________
MadGez wrote:
Listen to Magnus he knows his shit.
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
Magnus is right
trixster wrote:
magnus is my hero
Loyal wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Magnus is the fucking voice of reason.
That's scary.
bABA wrote:
fuck Magnus
zwackerm wrote:
You're incredibly overrated and and if they made a Pixar film about you it would gross less than The Good Dinosaur.


Fri Nov 29, 2019 2:27 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Nowhere did I say it got great WOM. But sure.

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trixster wrote:
shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element

trixster wrote:
chippy is correct

Rev wrote:
Fuck Trump


Fri Nov 29, 2019 2:31 pm
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