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Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
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Author:  Chippy [ Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)

"Instead of supporting that star wars thing, I'm going to support this star wars thing"

brilliant.

Author:  Barrabás [ Wed Oct 16, 2019 12:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)

Thatguy wrote:
No smoking gun you could argue, but a lot of circumstantial evidence that fans just aren't that enthusiastic about Star Wars anymore.


Idk, Solo bombing like it did is pretty conclusive evidence that the franchise is damaged.

Author:  Thegun [ Wed Oct 16, 2019 4:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)

I don't know, the troubled production, lackluster marketing, and overall meh quality may have had something to do with that. Had it had more international appeal, it wouldn't have been that bad. I think Solo flopping only helped ROS, I think most people forget it exists. Hell I'd even argue most people forgot Rogue One exists at this point.

Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)

Thegun wrote:
I don't know, the troubled production, lackluster marketing, and overall meh quality may have had something to do with that. Had it had more international appeal, it wouldn't have been that bad. I think Solo flopping only helped ROS, I think most people forget it exists. Hell I'd even argue most people forgot Rogue One exists at this point.


I don't think so.

Author:  lilmac [ Fri Oct 18, 2019 10:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)

Had Solo waited until December it would have crossed $350m

Author:  Thegun [ Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)

Of Course, The stench of failure was all around it. But it's international numbers would have still been bad. It's kind of rough when A. You're recasting the best character of the biggest franchise of all time, and B. You're end up being a simple caper film marketed worse than Ocean's 8.

Had they got Ford just to film Intro and Outro scenes or even something like Days of Future Past, the film would have had a lot more buzz to it. They really did a terrible job with Chewie and Han meeting, and they were hoping for so much with the tease with Darth Maul. Disney really went all in with too many avenues, and nothing paid off.

Author:  Barrabás [ Fri Oct 18, 2019 10:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)

The overseas number for Solo has to be one of the most tragic figures in box office history. From 1B+ with The Force Awakens to less than $200m.

Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)

Tickets on sale, got mine easily on Atom. Went on AMC and there's a wait time like Endgame lol

Author:  lilmac [ Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)

I cannot wait!!!!!! Get in my eyeballs!

#hype

Author:  Barrabás [ Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)

Ok the new trailer is pretty good. Implying 3CPO is going to die is a low blow in terms of emotional manipulation but it may work.

Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:10 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)

The hype is there and ticket sales look good so I'm sensing Last Jedi opening, which would be good considering how much backlash it got.

Think legs will be better than Last Jedi but don't see anything over 650m. We'll see.

Author:  Keyser Söze [ Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)

Presales have been phenomenal. AMC is too busy to get data but Cinemark just for Thursday/Friday has done great.

Thursday - 81715/228012(2210 shows).
Friday - 38835/504627 (3646 shows)

Show counts will be triple this number by release date at the minimum. Plus I have seen umpteen sellouts in several Drafthouse, AMC, Regal etc across the country.

Author:  Chippy [ Tue Oct 22, 2019 2:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)


Author:  MadGez [ Tue Oct 22, 2019 2:22 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)

This will continue the trend of the third SW film increasing. $700m is still in play.

Author:  Chippy [ Tue Oct 22, 2019 2:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)

It's such a great trailer. Hits everything you wanted from a final trailer. The 3PO moment and the final line from Luke/Leia.

Author:  lilmac [ Tue Oct 22, 2019 4:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)

I just need it to make $1 additional over TLJ to keep the trend intact. Prediction: $645m DOM. Not comfortable going higher because this years been weird, Endgame notwithstanding.

Author:  Magnus [ Wed Nov 27, 2019 3:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)

Deadline has tracking at 205m. That feels valid given the signs. It’s also very TBD on how much closer being to Xmas will deflate OW.

Author:  Omni [ Wed Nov 27, 2019 4:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)

If it opens to 200+ so close to Christmas, beating TLJ will be an absolute lock.

Author:  Magnus [ Wed Nov 27, 2019 5:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)

I would tend to agree barring toxic WOM. I see a 3-3.3 multiplier.

Author:  DP07 [ Wed Nov 27, 2019 7:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)

I expect the release date will cause a bigger Saturday drop. Fanboys won’t care, they will see it opening day no matter what.

Author:  Magnus [ Wed Nov 27, 2019 7:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)

Yes but despite popular belief Star Wars gross isn’t just fanboys. In fact, the difference between Rogue One and Solo is full proof of thjs. Rogue One got fanboys and casual fans. Solo only had diehards. The difference is 300m+.

The casual folks are much more inclined to wait given that almost everyone will basically be off the week after given how the calender is set up.

Author:  MadGez [ Wed Nov 27, 2019 7:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)

I think it will now open close to TLJ but a little under. However, it will out gross TLJ. Should make about $650m, possibly more.

Author:  Rev [ Wed Nov 27, 2019 8:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)

BULLSHIT!

This is opening closer to 250m than 220m (TLJ) at the low end. Fuck Deadline's tracking.

Author:  MadGez [ Wed Nov 27, 2019 8:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)

Just like Frozen 2 - the OW numbers mean a little less being so close to the holiday. The Christmas period will be immense for this - especially with Jumanji burning off demand earlier this time.

Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Wed Nov 27, 2019 9:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)

I think it's opening under 200m tbh. Just a feeling. But if the reception is good it should beat TLJ total.

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