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 Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019) 

Domestic gross
Poll ended at Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:55 am
Less than $450m 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
$450m-500m 6%  6%  [ 2 ]
$500m-550m 6%  6%  [ 2 ]
$550m-600m 16%  16%  [ 5 ]
$600m-650m 28%  28%  [ 9 ]
$650m-700m 13%  13%  [ 4 ]
$700m-750m 16%  16%  [ 5 ]
$750m-800m 9%  9%  [ 3 ]
$800m-850m 3%  3%  [ 1 ]
$850m-900m 3%  3%  [ 1 ]
$900m-950m 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
$950m-1b 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
more than $1b 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 32

 Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019) 
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Superfreak
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Nobody knows or cares that this is the end. It reminds of how they hyped THE DARK KNIGHT RISES as the "finale" when 75% of it's audience were just tuning in with the prior episode which set up so many openings. Not sure why so many feel compelled to stick with the "trilogy" thing.

I loved THE LAST JEDI but only a fool would't realize it was really just the end of the story started in TFA. It def felt we were about to enter the middle phase of the story, not end it.

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Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:24 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Magnus wrote:
They feel underdeveloped cause TLJ is a failure to properly make any new character interesting outside Rey/Kylo. Poe and Finn are still mildly interesting at best. Like, if Poe and Finn die in this movie, is anyone outside die hard fans gonna feel much from it?

Yes, the smaller gap between film and the influx of non-episode SW films has made SW feel less epic. But TLJ really is still the biggest culprit.


This is dumb.

TFA/TLJ/TROS are part of a 9 film saga. With the two main characters being very wholly developed. They did a great job with Han in TFA, Luke in TLJ. And clearly this was supposed to end with a huge Leia moment. Because that's what the saga is about.

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Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:05 am
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
the only thing they screwed up was Solo. and that's almost entirely because they fired Lord/Miller. TLJ got massive reviews and massive box office. it's easily the best film of the series.

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Fri Nov 29, 2019 1:09 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
It didn't damage the brand. The fact that it's direct sequel is about to open to $200 mil and outgross it literally proves that. Oh, also, Mandalorian is a HUGE hit.

But sure, the brand is "damaged". get your incel ass out of here.

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Fri Nov 29, 2019 1:59 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
TLJ is Hated by far more than just the “incel” crowd. I’m literally the only person I know who likes it. Even I admit it’s deeply flawed. While it may not have significantly hurt the brand, it did little to excite people for Episode 9.

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Fri Nov 29, 2019 2:03 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
It's not though. That's not even close to being true. The numbers don't even back that up.

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Fri Nov 29, 2019 2:06 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Chippy wrote:
It's not though. That's not even close to being true. The numbers don't even back that up.

What numbers are you talking about? The box office? It didn’t exactly have a strong multiplier.

Who are you talking to that loves the film so much? Critics? Critics and audiences aren’t always gonna like the same thing.

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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Magnus wrote:
zwackerm wrote:
Chippy wrote:
It's not though. That's not even close to being true. The numbers don't even back that up.

What numbers are you talking about? The box office? It didn’t exactly have a strong multiplier.


*insert Michael Scott "THANK YOU" gif*


Yep, y'all got me. A 2.8 multiplier off a $220 mil OW. YOU GOT ME! (Endgame had a 2.4 multiplier, IW had a 2.63, they must be the most hated films of all time)

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Fri Nov 29, 2019 2:22 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Magnus wrote:
Chippy wrote:
IThe fact that it's direct sequel is about to open to $200 mil and outgross it literally proves that.


you seem to be confusing the fact that the SW brand is still massive vs. the brand getting damaged.

Like, the peak of this franchise was so huge that Endgame with a 357m OW couldn't even get within 75m of its domestic record. This is going to post big numbers.

That doesn't change the fact that this film feels right now to be doing way lower than the end of a SW trilogy should be doing given the history.


The most anticipated film in the Star Wars series got the box office at a perfect time... and couldn't come within $100 mil OW of the 21st Marvel film.

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Fri Nov 29, 2019 2:23 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Magnus wrote:
TLJ and Rogue One had similar preview/OW ratio and had similar daily drops over their first six days, indicating that there wasn't a significant difference in their natural upfront/frontloadedness.

Yet, TLJ gets a 2.81 multiplier and RO got a 3.43. And if you dig deeper, TLJ OW (minus previews) to total (minus previews) was 3.28. Rogue One, which opened the same spot similar ratio was 3.71.

Rogue One had good/very good WOM. TLJ being below it in all measurable metrics is a strong indication that TLJ did not have a similar reception.


Rogue One had great WOM, you sniveling fool. Mouth breathers can't shut up about how much they love that film.

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Fri Nov 29, 2019 2:24 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Nowhere did I say it got great WOM. But sure.

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Fri Nov 29, 2019 2:31 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
TLJ deserved much better audience reaction than it received.

'Tis a shame.


Fri Nov 29, 2019 3:22 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
What concerns me most are international numbers. Typically OS audiences will still come out for spin offs of major franchises yet Solo BOMBED everywhere. Couldn't even get to $200m total.

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Sat Nov 30, 2019 3:15 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Jiffy wrote:
TLJ deserved much better audience reaction than it received.

'Tis a shame.


The think normal audiences enjoyed it and the scape Twitterverse reaction carrying over to the general public is being drastically overstated AS ALWAYS.

THE LAST JEDI is basically seen as
-A Badass title
-Badass Kylo Ren moment
-Badass Luke Skywalker moment
-Generally good flick

I know of many people who would say it is their ave SW Film since the OT, including myself. Had they just figured out something better for Finn/Poe and adjusted it to so Leia flew into the ships instead of Laura Dern AND just fucking kept Luke alive at the end, they would have equalled EMPIRE in terms of reception. Instead it was just badass instead of classics.

I still think this does huge epic numbers. It was never going to top ENDGAME opening in December but I think it def. beats DA FORCE AWAKENS

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Wed Dec 04, 2019 1:25 am
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Excel wrote:
[

THE LAST JEDI is basically seen as
-A Badass title
-Badass Kylo Ren moment
-Badass Luke Skywalker moment
-Generally good flick

Lol.

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Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:10 am
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Rogue One: 532.2 million
Solo: 213.8 mil

That's the biggest evidence of TLJ damaging the brand

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Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:47 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
It's not. Because, again, Mandalorian is doing boffo business.

Solo bombed because nobody wanted a Star Wars movie that soon, it was a troubled production, it had some no-name for the title character, and people didn't like it. It had no hook outside of the character, who was being played by another actor.

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Thu Dec 05, 2019 5:49 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Mandalorian is almost free to watch, of course it’s gonna do well.

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Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:24 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
"almost free" lol ok

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Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:29 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Chippy wrote:
It's not. Because, again, Mandalorian is doing boffo business.

Solo bombed because nobody wanted a Star Wars movie that soon, it was a troubled production, it had some no-name for the title character, and people didn't like it. It had no hook outside of the character, who was being played by another actor.


A lot of these weaknesses apply to Rogue One. So something happened between Rogue One and Solo

In my opinion if Solo was the spin off after Force Awakens and Rogue One was the spin off after the Last Jedi, their grosses quite possibly are reversed or close to it

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Thu Dec 05, 2019 7:39 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Why is TLJ more damaging than what AOC clones was. That was received even worse and still Sith had ginormous buzz and crushed midnight record by more than double. I dont see any issues. Plus JJ makes critics/ audience pleasing movies. I am sure buzz will further go up once the reviews are out.

I am tracking ticket sales at just reserved shows at AMC/CIN and SW9 has almost sold 1.5m tickets between the 2 chains. I dont see any issues for this movie. it will hit 50m previews and probably OW around TLJ. I think 700m will happen unless JJ pulls in a RIan J kind of response which is unlikely.

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Thu Dec 05, 2019 7:39 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Shack wrote:
Chippy wrote:
It's not. Because, again, Mandalorian is doing boffo business.

Solo bombed because nobody wanted a Star Wars movie that soon, it was a troubled production, it had some no-name for the title character, and people didn't like it. It had no hook outside of the character, who was being played by another actor.


A lot of these weaknesses apply to Rogue One. So something happened between Rogue One and Solo

In my opinion if Solo was the spin off after Force Awakens and Rogue One was the spin off after the Last Jedi, their grosses quite possibly are reversed or close to it


Not even close to the same. Rogue One was the first spin off, advantage. It was a direct tie to A New Hope, advantage. It included Darth Vader, advantage. It was a year after the previous Star Wars release, advantage. It used nostalgia to market itself, by reusing previous scores from previous films.

No way does Rogue One bomb like Solo if they are reversed. It would've grossed less than it did because of the release date, but Solo no way would've matched it.

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Thu Dec 05, 2019 7:43 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
I feel like the TLJ backlash definitely had a negative impact on Solo, but what hurt it the most IMO was not having Harrison Ford actually play Han fucking Solo. I mean they should have been smart enough to figure that out before that movie was even green lit, but nope they decided to roll the dice anyways and it completely blew up in their faces. People just don't care about the character if you don't have the same iconic actor playing him.

Also, the more years that go by the more I think we are definitely going to start appreciating the performance of RO, especially for a spin-off even though they did milk the hell of out of that Vader/ANH nostalgia. There is no telling what the state of Star Wars is going to be after TROS, but even if it ends on a positive note I don't see any future Star Wars films coming close to $600M let alone $500M unless they somehow come up with another appealing unique/original idea.


Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:04 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
This backlash for film with a 91% RT and an A cinemascore is hilarious. The only people that got angry are the ones that are still going to be there for this one opening night. GA had no problems with it.

Can't speak to the future of SW. But this is about the safest bet for a film since TFA or even Endgame.

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Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:23 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
I think the film had a decent reception at first but I feel the intense negativity on twitter, YT and the fanbase, in general, made people rethink the film shortly after...

Like the reception was really solid but it got more negative i found online over time.

Like if someone liked the TLJ then heard their Star Wars friend talk about "all the issues with the movie", that likely changed peoples mind a bit.

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