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 Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019) 

Domestic gross
Poll ended at Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:55 am
Less than $450m 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
$450m-500m 6%  6%  [ 2 ]
$500m-550m 6%  6%  [ 2 ]
$550m-600m 16%  16%  [ 5 ]
$600m-650m 28%  28%  [ 9 ]
$650m-700m 13%  13%  [ 4 ]
$700m-750m 16%  16%  [ 5 ]
$750m-800m 9%  9%  [ 3 ]
$800m-850m 3%  3%  [ 1 ]
$850m-900m 3%  3%  [ 1 ]
$900m-950m 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
$950m-1b 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
more than $1b 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 32

 Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019) 
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Excel wrote:
Phantom menace and obviously CLONES were far more hated than TFA and TLJ and yet we all remember SITH blowing up.

The final trailer will tease Luke vs. Palpatine and this will clear $60m previews

TLJ is far more hated at the current time than any other Star Wars movie, at least among fans. It’s really not even close. With had good marketing and looked like what fans actually wanted to see. Episode 9 looks like more of the same.

I see 190 OW and better legs than TLJ for like 575 total.

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Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:25 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
nghtvsn wrote:
Just a thought, so now palpatine isnt dead and he got thrown down a space shaft while getting electrocuted.

Where’s Mace ...

We only heard his laugh. Let’s not get ahead. He could still be dead. It’s probably flashback or hologram recordings. I don’t believe he lived through that fall at end of ROJ. I’m thinking Rey’s getting force tested ala Luke in Empire Strikes back with Vader. This time ole Palppy shows up.

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Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:32 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
I’m hoping for all out ghost force fight, Luke and Yoda vs palpatine and snoke

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Sat Apr 13, 2019 1:47 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Oh wow only 22m views for the trailer? Last Jedi got double that for the first teaser.

Among other big films to recently put out trailers, Joker just did 45m, Lion King is at 24m (for a second trailer), Aladdin did 48m. Sometimes a film's international popularity can create huge view counts that don't necessarily represent it's North American potential, but Star Wars has always been pretty even between domestic and international.

I did my Solo under $100m OW club when the trailer views were really disappointing and I sensed something was off. Under $100m OW seems impossible for this but I definitely think under $150m OW could potentially happen. Too early to tell though, the next trailer could turn things around. We still haven't seen Force Ghost Luke or Palpatine (if he's in it).

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Mon Apr 15, 2019 11:52 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
It had 26 mil views on twitter. And the live panel had almost 2 mil live viewers.

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Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:14 am
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Lol, sub 150 OW.

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Tue Apr 16, 2019 3:51 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Between GOT and End Game, Ep IX got the low end of attention. Doesn't mean the interest won't be there come Dec. 175M+ OW still likely IMO.


Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:41 pm
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Mon Aug 26, 2019 8:48 am
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
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Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:01 am
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Anyone thinking this opens below TFA is out of their minds.

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Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:42 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Chippy wrote:


HOLY FUCK! :whaa: is that cloned Rey? is that a vision? WTF!!!

LOOK AT ALL THOSE IMPERIAL STAR DESTROYERS!!! HOLY FUCK!!!

C3PO 'KILL MODE' IS ACTIVATED! HE'S THE EVIL HIDING IN PLAIN SITE!!!! OH SHIT!

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Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:42 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Hmmm..... Could a certain Sith Lord from the Pre-quels be Rey's Daddy? Switchblade Lightsaber FTW!


Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:46 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
I have zero idea where this is going still.

It could pull a ROTS and ROTJ and increase 20%-25% from the previous installment, which rounded up is about 775m.

Or it could just do TLJ adjusted which would put it at 650m.

Or it could lose a slight bit of audience from TLJ and only get to 600m.

I genuinely think anything in that 600m-775m wouldn't surprise me as of today. It's really hard to know how much of the segment of the audience that was annoyed by TLJ will actually avoid this and more importantly, how much of repeat viewings will matter and what type of legs it will get after Christmas and the holidays.

If I had to guess, I'd say it does 225m OW and 685m finish (and does enough OS to get to $1.5B WW). Just enough to get into top 5 all time DOM, top 10 all time WW.

It's crazy how much we've changed our expectations from three years ago. After Rogue One did 532m DOM, I thought TLJ was certain for 700m+ and the finale would do 800m+. TLJ and Solo now make me question whether the finale can top Incredibles 2.

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Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:45 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Like all 3rd film in a trilogy TROS is guaranteed to top TLJ domestically.

Return of the Jedi +19 million over Empire Strikes Back
Revenge of the Sith +78 million over Attack of the Clone

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Mon Aug 26, 2019 7:40 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
I see an opening around The Last Jedi. I'm gonna go with 225 for now. Legs all depend on reception.


Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:07 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Magnus wrote:
I have zero idea where this is going still.

If I had to guess, I'd say it does 225m OW and 685m finish (and does enough OS to get to $1.5B WW). Just enough to get into top 5 all time DOM, top 10 all time WW.



I think this sounds about right. It opens a bit higher than TLJ (or the same adjusted) which still reflects some audience loss due 3rd instalments of this franchise increasing historically.

It then has better legs and hangs around to get closer to $700m.

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Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:11 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Yeah, maybe people forget how awful AotC was, and RotS didn't really get hurt by that. Sure, it added Vader... for a minute. But this is adding Palpatine. Call it a wash.

I'd say this opens close to $180 mil or more. And finishes above $700 mil.

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Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:09 am
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Compared to the others, opening on the 20th will lower the opening and boost the multiplier.


Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:13 am
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
New updated prediction

TROS - 260/800

Third film in a trilogy always rebounds big :D in a galaxy far far away

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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
DP07 wrote:
Compared to the others, opening on the 20th will lower the opening and boost the multiplier.


yeah that def. will be a factor though I also think it would open closer to 240m if it had a similar release date of TLJ so I think a 220m-225m OW would show a deflated number.

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Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:54 am
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Core fans are extremely relieved that JJ is back to hopefully fix the disaster of TLJ, so it could set a new record 3 day. It's not just the end of a trilogy - it's essentially the conclusion of a 40+ year saga that has been at the apex of pop culture the whole time.

Then again, it does have to compete with Cats, lol.

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Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:25 am
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
I don’t buy this opens bigger than TLJ.

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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
zwackerm wrote:
I don’t buy this opens bigger than TLJ.


I don't buy you not buying this opening bigger than TLJ

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Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:18 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Not beating TLJ I think is not realistic unless a lot of very bad press happens. If all goes well it can crack 300m.

More schools will be out all day on Dec 20 than they were Dec 18 (TFA) let alone Dec 15 (TLJ). Endgame did not even open on a special day - just a typical school day. On top of that I'm sure they'll try to push the preview window to new earliness levels.

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Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:55 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
The problem though is that many will be using that weekend to travel so they won't have time ot see hte movie / being so close to Xmas means that people will be more willingly to wait until their with their families to see it (unlike TLJ, in which Xmas was 10 days later and thus a much bigger wait).

Granted, this won't affect MOST people but it will affect enough people that it'll shave 10m-20m off its OW if it was released in a similar time that TLJ was.

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Listen to Magnus he knows his shit.
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Magnus is the fucking voice of reason.
That's scary.
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You're incredibly overrated and and if they made a Pixar film about you it would gross less than The Good Dinosaur.


Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:50 pm
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