Lol, sub 150 OW.

Between GOT and End Game, Ep IX got the low end of attention. Doesn't mean the interest won't be there come Dec. 175M+ OW still likely IMO.

195
595
1.15

Anyone thinking this opens below TFA is out of their minds.

HOLY FUCK! is that cloned Rey? is that a vision? WTF!!!

LOOK AT ALL THOSE IMPERIAL STAR DESTROYERS!!! HOLY FUCK!!!

C3PO 'KILL MODE' IS ACTIVATED! HE'S THE EVIL HIDING IN PLAIN SITE!!!! OH SHIT!

Hmmm..... Could a certain Sith Lord from the Pre-quels be Rey's Daddy? Switchblade Lightsaber FTW!

Like all 3rd film in a trilogy TROS is guaranteed to top TLJ domestically.

Return of the Jedi +19 million over Empire Strikes Back
Revenge of the Sith +78 million over Attack of the Clone

I see an opening around The Last Jedi. I'm gonna go with 225 for now. Legs all depend on reception.

I think this sounds about right. It opens a bit higher than TLJ (or the same adjusted) which still reflects some audience loss due 3rd instalments of this franchise increasing historically.

It then has better legs and hangs around to get closer to $700m.

Yeah, maybe people forget how awful AotC was, and RotS didn't really get hurt by that. Sure, it added Vader... for a minute. But this is adding Palpatine. Call it a wash.

I'd say this opens close to $180 mil or more. And finishes above $700 mil.

Compared to the others, opening on the 20th will lower the opening and boost the multiplier.

New updated prediction

TROS - 260/800

Third film in a trilogy always rebounds big in a galaxy far far away

Core fans are extremely relieved that JJ is back to hopefully fix the disaster of TLJ, so it could set a new record 3 day. It's not just the end of a trilogy - it's essentially the conclusion of a 40+ year saga that has been at the apex of pop culture the whole time.

Then again, it does have to compete with Cats, lol.

I don’t buy this opens bigger than TLJ.

I don't buy you not buying this opening bigger than TLJ

Not beating TLJ I think is not realistic unless a lot of very bad press happens. If all goes well it can crack 300m.

More schools will be out all day on Dec 20 than they were Dec 18 (TFA) let alone Dec 15 (TLJ). Endgame did not even open on a special day - just a typical school day. On top of that I'm sure they'll try to push the preview window to new earliness levels.

The Last Jedi? Out-opening Rogue One would be a more realistic expectation...

Let's get back to this conversation AFTER the Final Trailer drops in October.

People did not like TLJ and Star Wars is over saturated and no longer an event. Hype has gotten less with each subsequent episode and I don’t think the finale effect works unless the previous entries were really well liked. TFA wasn’t hated but it seems relatively forgotten compared to Ep 4-6 and even 1-3 even if people like it more than 1-2.

Do we remember DreamWorks sequels and their oversaturation with TV shows. This could be in the same boat with a new TV show coming just a month before. Even if they end the main trilogy here this isn't the last star wars movie by any means and most people know that. I also have concerns on the hook of this movie. Seeing Kylo and Rey fight it out isn't exciting when we have seen that in last two movies. It's still a Star wars movie so it will open big but I'm not expecting record breaking numbers or even $200m opening from this.

The fact that Palpatine has some role is a massively bigger hook than anything else involving Rey or Kylo.

People will show up more than anything for the links to the original characters and to (presumably) get the answers to all the questions that this trilogy has given rise to. The action scenes at this point are more secondary. Most of the box office of TFA is attributed to nostalgia for the original trilogy.

People didn't like TLJ. That's why it made $620 mil. Everyone knows only bad movies make $600+ mil.

It had a way worse multiple than TFA that certainly means something.

It means it didn't have as great a multiplier as the biggest domestic movie of all time. What an insane standard to hold it up to.