TLJ is far more hated at the current time than any other Star Wars movie, at least among fans. It’s really not even close. With had good marketing and looked like what fans actually wanted to see. Episode 9 looks like more of the same.

I see 190 OW and better legs than TLJ for like 575 total.

We only heard his laugh. Let’s not get ahead. He could still be dead. It’s probably flashback or hologram recordings. I don’t believe he lived through that fall at end of ROJ. I’m thinking Rey’s getting force tested ala Luke in Empire Strikes back with Vader. This time ole Palppy shows up.

I’m hoping for all out ghost force fight, Luke and Yoda vs palpatine and snoke

Oh wow only 22m views for the trailer? Last Jedi got double that for the first teaser.

Among other big films to recently put out trailers, Joker just did 45m, Lion King is at 24m (for a second trailer), Aladdin did 48m. Sometimes a film's international popularity can create huge view counts that don't necessarily represent it's North American potential, but Star Wars has always been pretty even between domestic and international.

I did my Solo under $100m OW club when the trailer views were really disappointing and I sensed something was off. Under $100m OW seems impossible for this but I definitely think under $150m OW could potentially happen. Too early to tell though, the next trailer could turn things around. We still haven't seen Force Ghost Luke or Palpatine (if he's in it).

It had 26 mil views on twitter. And the live panel had almost 2 mil live viewers.

Lol, sub 150 OW.

Between GOT and End Game, Ep IX got the low end of attention. Doesn't mean the interest won't be there come Dec. 175M+ OW still likely IMO.

195
595
1.15

Anyone thinking this opens below TFA is out of their minds.

HOLY FUCK! is that cloned Rey? is that a vision? WTF!!!

LOOK AT ALL THOSE IMPERIAL STAR DESTROYERS!!! HOLY FUCK!!!

C3PO 'KILL MODE' IS ACTIVATED! HE'S THE EVIL HIDING IN PLAIN SITE!!!! OH SHIT!

Hmmm..... Could a certain Sith Lord from the Pre-quels be Rey's Daddy? Switchblade Lightsaber FTW!

I have zero idea where this is going still.

It could pull a ROTS and ROTJ and increase 20%-25% from the previous installment, which rounded up is about 775m.

Or it could just do TLJ adjusted which would put it at 650m.

Or it could lose a slight bit of audience from TLJ and only get to 600m.

I genuinely think anything in that 600m-775m wouldn't surprise me as of today. It's really hard to know how much of the segment of the audience that was annoyed by TLJ will actually avoid this and more importantly, how much of repeat viewings will matter and what type of legs it will get after Christmas and the holidays.

If I had to guess, I'd say it does 225m OW and 685m finish (and does enough OS to get to $1.5B WW). Just enough to get into top 5 all time DOM, top 10 all time WW.

It's crazy how much we've changed our expectations from three years ago. After Rogue One did 532m DOM, I thought TLJ was certain for 700m+ and the finale would do 800m+. TLJ and Solo now make me question whether the finale can top Incredibles 2.

Like all 3rd film in a trilogy TROS is guaranteed to top TLJ domestically.

Return of the Jedi +19 million over Empire Strikes Back
Revenge of the Sith +78 million over Attack of the Clone

I see an opening around The Last Jedi. I'm gonna go with 225 for now. Legs all depend on reception.

I think this sounds about right. It opens a bit higher than TLJ (or the same adjusted) which still reflects some audience loss due 3rd instalments of this franchise increasing historically.

It then has better legs and hangs around to get closer to $700m.

Yeah, maybe people forget how awful AotC was, and RotS didn't really get hurt by that. Sure, it added Vader... for a minute. But this is adding Palpatine. Call it a wash.

I'd say this opens close to $180 mil or more. And finishes above $700 mil.

Compared to the others, opening on the 20th will lower the opening and boost the multiplier.

New updated prediction

TROS - 260/800

Third film in a trilogy always rebounds big in a galaxy far far away

yeah that def. will be a factor though I also think it would open closer to 240m if it had a similar release date of TLJ so I think a 220m-225m OW would show a deflated number.

Core fans are extremely relieved that JJ is back to hopefully fix the disaster of TLJ, so it could set a new record 3 day. It's not just the end of a trilogy - it's essentially the conclusion of a 40+ year saga that has been at the apex of pop culture the whole time.

Then again, it does have to compete with Cats, lol.

I don’t buy this opens bigger than TLJ.

I don't buy you not buying this opening bigger than TLJ

Not beating TLJ I think is not realistic unless a lot of very bad press happens. If all goes well it can crack 300m.

More schools will be out all day on Dec 20 than they were Dec 18 (TFA) let alone Dec 15 (TLJ). Endgame did not even open on a special day - just a typical school day. On top of that I'm sure they'll try to push the preview window to new earliness levels.

The problem though is that many will be using that weekend to travel so they won't have time ot see hte movie / being so close to Xmas means that people will be more willingly to wait until their with their families to see it (unlike TLJ, in which Xmas was 10 days later and thus a much bigger wait).

Granted, this won't affect MOST people but it will affect enough people that it'll shave 10m-20m off its OW if it was released in a similar time that TLJ was.