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Monday Numbers
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=81734		 Page 1 of 2
Author:  mark66 [ Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:49 am ]
Post subject:  Monday Numbers
DLH:

$17.7m R1
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:58 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Monday Numbers
Magnus wrote:
I hope this Monday number kills the silly notion that this is going to have better legs than TFA and get 600m+.


The drop is exactly as expected. TFA opened later in the year. In this time of the year, every day matters, as far as daily grosses go.
Author:  Rev [ Tue Dec 20, 2016 12:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monday Numbers
As long as it breaks 500m :thumbsup:
Author:  mark66 [ Tue Dec 20, 2016 12:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monday Numbers
Magnus wrote:
It's a 53% drop. TFA dropped 33.8%. Yes, this was 12/19 and that was 12/21 but the difference of two days does not make up for that 20% difference.


DLH:
With only 37% of K-12 schools off yesterday, along with 76% colleges per ComScore, it was always expected that Rogue One‘s Monday would be off a bit from Sunday, especially with fewer kids on break at this point in time versus a year ago (73% K-12, 87% college). These figures will increase as we get closer to the holiday weekend.

Are you sure the difference of two days does not make up for that 20 % difference?
Author:  Proud Ryu [ Tue Dec 20, 2016 12:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monday Numbers
Magnus wrote:
It's a 53% drop. TFA dropped 33.8%. Yes, this was 12/19 and that was 12/21 but the difference of two days does not make up for that 20% difference.

Rogue One will get good holiday legs but it is not going to do better than TFA legs and it is not going to break 600m.


Two days actually could make a very big difference. There could be a huge discrepancy between the number of schools being done on those two dates. The 19th - 21st is the big transition period.

There's no evidence that WOM is worse, so the numbers indicate more schools in session. WOM would not account for those differences. To me it implies a bigger multiplier.
Author:  Chippy [ Tue Dec 20, 2016 12:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monday Numbers
I'm sure.
Author:  Proud Ryu [ Tue Dec 20, 2016 1:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monday Numbers
Median 1 day % changes on Monday

12/17 -63%
12/18 -62%
12/19 -47%
12/20 -45%
12/21 -41%
12/22 -36%
12/23 -31%

Huge drop off there on 12/19, not counting this year. So depending on when most schools end, it can be quite a difference.
Author:  Chippy [ Tue Dec 20, 2016 1:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monday Numbers
But you just proved yourself wrong. The median for 12/19 is 47%. SW dropped 53%.
Author:  mark66 [ Tue Dec 20, 2016 2:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monday Numbers
Chippy wrote:
But you just proved yourself wrong. The median for 12/19 is 47%. SW dropped 53%.

We don't know yet this year's median drop...
Author:  Jonathan [ Tue Dec 20, 2016 2:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monday Numbers
11th biggest non-holiday Monday ever, and the fifth biggest outside of June/July, behind only The Force Awakens 2x (first and second Mondays), The Avengers, and Avatar's second Monday. So far so good.
Author:  The Dark Shape [ Tue Dec 20, 2016 2:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monday Numbers
Magnus wrote:
I hope this Monday number kills the silly notion that this is going to have better legs than TFA and get 600m+.


After an OW that was nearly double the original HOBBIT's, ROGUE ONE's first Monday is more than double AUJ's $7.7m first Monday.

THE HOBBIT made $303m domestically. Still think $600m is out of the question? :emo:
Author:  Chippy [ Tue Dec 20, 2016 2:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monday Numbers
If it follows I Am Legend's trajectory, it's looking at $578 mil.
If it follows Hobbit's trajectory, it's looking at $657 mil.

Minimum it does, IMO, is $515 mil. So somewhere between that and $657 mil.
Author:  Jonathan [ Tue Dec 20, 2016 2:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monday Numbers
We need a movie to fill in that massive gap between TDK and Avengers on the all time domestic chart, so hopefully it lands between those two. We need a $550-600 million grosser!
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Tue Dec 20, 2016 3:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monday Numbers
Magnus wrote:
It's a 53% drop. TFA dropped 33.8%. Yes, this was 12/19 and that was 12/21 but the difference of two days does not make up for that 20% difference.

Rogue One will get good holiday legs but it is not going to do better than TFA legs and it is not going to break 600m.


This time of the year, two days make a gigantic difference. Do your research.
Author:  FILMO [ Tue Dec 20, 2016 3:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monday Numbers
HBO-ROGUE ONE will not beat The Force Awakens! hehehehehe
Author:  Chippy [ Tue Dec 20, 2016 3:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monday Numbers
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Magnus wrote:
It's a 53% drop. TFA dropped 33.8%. Yes, this was 12/19 and that was 12/21 but the difference of two days does not make up for that 20% difference.

Rogue One will get good holiday legs but it is not going to do better than TFA legs and it is not going to break 600m.


This time of the year, two days make a gigantic difference. Do your research.


Proud Ryu wrote:
Median 1 day % changes on Monday

12/17 -63%
12/18 -62%
12/19 -47%
12/20 -45%
12/21 -41%
12/22 -36%
12/23 -31%

Huge drop off there on 12/19, not counting this year. So depending on when most schools end, it can be quite a difference.


Maybe look at the chart, Dr.

This fell right about inline with the normal 19th drop. TFA fell WAY better than the 21st drop.
Author:  mark66 [ Tue Dec 20, 2016 3:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monday Numbers
More numbers trickling in...

http://www.the-numbers.com/daily-box-office-chart
Author:  Chippy [ Tue Dec 20, 2016 4:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monday Numbers
TFA dropped inline or BETTER than most films it's Monday.

RO dropped the 2nd worst.
Author:  Libs [ Tue Dec 20, 2016 5:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monday Numbers
BOM:

1 ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY $17,595,150 -53.3% $172,676,831
2 MOANA $2,350,827 -46.6% $165,271,804
3 OFFICE CHRISTMAS PARTY $1,326,878 -47.5% $32,982,673
4 FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM $940,678 -44.4% $208,663,096
5 COLLATERAL BEAUTY $921,107 -54% $8,023,192
6 LA LA LAND $637,898 -47.8% $5,980,155
7 MANCHESTER BY THE SEA $605,000 -51% $14,709,319
8 ARRIVAL $487,412 -47.5% $87,153,737
9 DOCTOR STRANGE $408,378 -42.7% $226,669,317
10 TROLLS $292,371 -41.3% $141,719,188

11 ALLIED $218,607 -45.5% $38,750,700
12 NOCTURNAL ANIMALS $209,512 -49.5% $9,037,966
13 HACKSAW RIDGE $196,948 -34.7% $63,051,568

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/char ... -19&p=.htm
Author:  the lesser evil [ Tue Dec 20, 2016 5:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monday Numbers
Drops are about the same as in 2011, when the 19th was also on a Monday and that weekend's openers saw harsher drops than holdovers.

The coming two weeks are going to have such odd daily numbers with Christmas and New Year's falling on a Sunday...
Author:  Proud Ryu [ Tue Dec 20, 2016 5:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monday Numbers
The data mark posted suggests a lot more schools were in session this monday than in the past on the 19th. Maybe an extra snow/cold day or two, or different policies.

The gap in medians between 2015 and 2016 is bigger than usual between Dec 19 and 21. Look at Peanuts which increased 17% - a telling indicator of schools being out.

TFA also would have benefited a lot more from spillover than any other film in recent memory.

It's hard to see why R1 couldn't be leggier than TFA so far.
Author:  Chippy [ Tue Dec 20, 2016 6:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monday Numbers
Just because TFA had schools out its first Monday doesn't mean RO is going to have better legs. If you look at everything out right now, RO had a worse drop than almost everything. TFA had one of the better drops of everything.
Author:  Proud Ryu [ Tue Dec 20, 2016 6:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monday Numbers
But films playing heavy to youth would have an extra good Monday with schools off and an extra "bad" one with schools on.

In any case it's very early to tell.
Author:  Chippy [ Tue Dec 20, 2016 6:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monday Numbers
So wouldn't RO get it's extra "good" Monday on the 2nd, and this would be the "bad" Monday?
Author:  Darth Indiana Bond [ Tue Dec 20, 2016 7:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Monday Numbers
Even on the dullest of days the jewels on the crown of Star Wars shine bright in the court of blockbusters
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