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Weekend Estimates (June 10-12)
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=80356		 Page 1 of 2
Author:  Chippy [ Sun Jun 12, 2016 10:41 am ]
Post subject:  Weekend Estimates (June 10-12)
Conjuring 2 - $40.3 mil
Warcraft - $24 mil
Now You See Me 2 - $23 mil

TMNT2 - $14.8 mil
Apocalypse - $10 mil
Me Before You - $9.2 mil
Nice Guys - $2.1 mil
Author:  SolC9 [ Sun Jun 12, 2016 12:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates (June 10-12)
Nothing particularly surprising this weekend. I am a bit surprised Me Before You fell as much as it did.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates (June 10-12)
That's great for TC2 and it seems that the WoM on this will be good so expecting it to close with $110m with this opening or maybe even more.

Warcraft fluttered and as expected aside from midnights it trailed NYSM2 over the weekend. Its doing OK but not huge numbers the sequel even with similar budget will most likely fail. Also while it is hidden mostly but with the marketing the budget of Warcraft should be $250m+ even with $500m WW total I don't think it will make money for the makers involved. The sequel will happen but they need to cut down the budget.

Decent for NYSM2 and the multiple over the weekend is also good. Its not going to have the legs of the original and it opened almost $10m below that with a higher budget but atleast in states it didn't flop as bad as Warcraft.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates (June 10-12)
It sort of makes sense that Me Before You dropped since Conjuring 2 appeals heavily to females. And like all female appealing summer films MBY will have fantastic summer weekdays, as already seen this past week.

Conjuring 2 did great but will likely miss 40 Million for the weekend.

I wonder if they'll cancel the already green-lit Now You See Me 3. I think it did solid with the competition, great even, but that budget is fucking nuts. If they had opened it on a weaker weekend it could have opened to 30+.
Author:  Webslinger [ Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates (June 10-12)
Solid opening for The Conjuring 2. I suppose it's a little underwhelming given that it fell under the first film's opening from three years ago, but with the poor sequel retention rates as of late, it's encouraging to see it bow so close to its predecessor. Even with a stacked summer schedule, it will hopefully be able to at least eke past $100 million.

Warcraft is ridiculously frontloaded, just as anticipated with how little appeal the film itself apparently has for viewers who aren't already deeply entrenched in the source material. With how gigantic it is overseas, its domestic run feels irrelevant.

Now You See Me 2 did better than I was expecting; with the sequel woes as of late, I was expecting it to fall under $20 million. It's not a huge hit or anything, but with international grosses factored in, it should ultimately go down as a respectable performer.

I'm surprised that Me Before You didn't hold better after the very strong weekday performance it posted.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates (June 10-12)
SolC9 wrote:
Nothing particularly surprising this weekend. I am a bit surprised Me Before You fell as much as it did.


NYSM2 and TC2 also has a good female appeal so I think that affected MBY this weekend still it should have held better than this.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates (June 10-12)
Magic Mike wrote:
Conjuring 2 did great but will likely miss 40 Million for the weekend.


That number seems pretty specific, I think it will still hold on to $40m OW.

Magic Mike wrote:
I wonder if they'll cancel the already green-lit Now You See Me 3. I think it did solid with the competition, great even, but that budget is fucking nuts. If they had opened it on a weaker weekend it could have opened to 30+.


Almost everyone is saying that this is a respectable total though I am sure LG/S expected more out of it. NYSM3 would still be released but with most likely a tighter budget.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates (June 10-12)
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Magic Mike wrote:
Conjuring 2 did great but will likely miss 40 Million for the weekend.


That number seems pretty specific, I think it will still hold on to $40m OW.



It's just to get it over 40 Million. Doesn't mean it can't drop more on Sunday.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates (June 10-12)
Its Sunday does seem to be optimistic but I think there will be slight adjustment and WB will keep it over $40m.
Author:  _axiom [ Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates (June 10-12)
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Warcraft fluttered and as expected aside from midnights it trailed NYSM2 over the weekend. Its doing OK but not huge numbers the sequel even with similar budget will most likely fail. Also while it is hidden mostly but with the marketing the budget of Warcraft should be $250m+ even with $500m WW total I don't think it will make money for the makers involved. The sequel will happen but they need to cut down the budget.

They won't be able to cut down the budget and with the frontloading going on I don't think sequel has room to rise. If they ever make it, I doubt it makes more than this one.
Author:  trixie [ Sun Jun 12, 2016 2:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates (June 10-12)
-Conjuring 2 is the first sequel this year that seems to be performing better than expected.
-Warcraft will have an epic drop off next week, overseas numbers is the real story here.
-NYSM 2 held up well this weekend , but it's still meh numbers when considering the budget. I don't think a third film is feasible. That's desperation on the part of Lionsgate.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jun 12, 2016 2:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates (June 10-12)
Warcraft seems to be dropping like a rock in China and has 70% of its WW total from that country alone. Its at $286m WW and made more than 50% of its total in China now. Its not making even $50m domestically and there could be a case that it misses even $500m WW total from a MASSIVE budget. I don't see how its OS numbers are THAT impressive.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jun 12, 2016 2:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates (June 10-12)
_axiom wrote:
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Warcraft fluttered and as expected aside from midnights it trailed NYSM2 over the weekend. Its doing OK but not huge numbers the sequel even with similar budget will most likely fail. Also while it is hidden mostly but with the marketing the budget of Warcraft should be $250m+ even with $500m WW total I don't think it will make money for the makers involved. The sequel will happen but they need to cut down the budget.

They won't be able to cut down the budget and with the frontloading going on I don't think sequel has room to rise. If they ever make it, I doubt it makes more than this one.


Agreed I don't see a sense in making a sequel to this even with OS numbers. I think domestically it will not even do $30m next time. The only unknown factor is China, the sequels to shittier movies have done great numbers there.
Author:  Rolling Thunder [ Mon Jun 13, 2016 12:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates (June 10-12)
Anyone think Warcraft could drop over 75% next weekend?
Author:  zwackerm [ Mon Jun 13, 2016 12:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates (June 10-12)
Rolling Thunder wrote:
Anyone think Warcraft could drop over 75% next weekend?

No, its IM was stronger than BvS, and that didn't even fall 70%.
Author:  _axiom [ Mon Jun 13, 2016 1:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates (June 10-12)
zwackerm wrote:
Rolling Thunder wrote:
Anyone think Warcraft could drop over 75% next weekend?

No, its IM was stronger than BvS, and that didn't even fall 70%.

It had no important new openers in its second week.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Mon Jun 13, 2016 1:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates (June 10-12)
Rolling Thunder wrote:
Anyone think Warcraft could drop over 75% next weekend?


Don't see this being more frontloaded than RE movies though accounting for general OW frontloadedness it should drop higher. I'd say the range is 65%-68% maybe even 70% but not 75%.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Mon Jun 13, 2016 2:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates (June 10-12)
If they make a third Now You See Me I want them to call it Now You 3 Me ;).
Author:  _axiom [ Mon Jun 13, 2016 2:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates (June 10-12)
Magic Mike wrote:
If they make a third Now You See Me I want them to call it Now You 3 Me ;).

Sounds like a porno.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Mon Jun 13, 2016 2:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates (June 10-12)
Magic Mike wrote:
If they make a third Now You See Me I want them to call it Now You 3 Me ;).


I think Now You Don't will be a better title third time around.
Author:  CowboyFromHell [ Mon Jun 13, 2016 4:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates (June 10-12)
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Its Sunday does seem to be optimistic but I think there will be slight adjustment and WB will keep it over $40m.


The actual number is $30.4M

Warner Bros. was way off. lol
Author:  DP07 [ Mon Jun 13, 2016 4:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates (June 10-12)
Rolling Thunder wrote:
Anyone think Warcraft could drop over 75% next weekend?


Given movies like Doom, it is possible.
Author:  _axiom [ Mon Jun 13, 2016 4:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates (June 10-12)
CowboyFromHell wrote:
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Its Sunday does seem to be optimistic but I think there will be slight adjustment and WB will keep it over $40m.


The actual number is $30.4M

Warner Bros. was way off. lol

Ummm, no it's $40.4m
Author:  DP07 [ Mon Jun 13, 2016 4:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates (June 10-12)
CowboyFromHell wrote:
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Its Sunday does seem to be optimistic but I think there will be slight adjustment and WB will keep it over $40m.


The actual number is $30.4M

Warner Bros. was way off. lol


It just couldn't reach their weekend estimate before Sunday.
Author:  CowboyFromHell [ Mon Jun 13, 2016 4:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates (June 10-12)
It's a typo by the-numbers.com website. Which, they still have not corrected.
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