On Christmas Day, as Star Wars continues to rule the galaxy, two star-driven Oscar hopefuls open: Concussion from Sony and Joy from 20th Century Fox. Both are rather tepidly reviewed, but could still easily muscle their way to high-profile acting nominations (both are up for Golden Globes). And both will presumably have healthy theatre counts of at least 2,700, if not 3,000-plus.

Which will earn more on opening day?

I have this feeling Concussion may be a quasi-dud. Not an epic misfire, but soft. Will Smith's potency as a draw is in doubt. The topic is not very appealing on a commercial level (nor is the title, honestly...Concussion). And certainly competition will be fierce. It feels rather odd to me as a Christmas release. Not because dark or very serious films cannot come out on the holiday, but rather it seems ripe to be overshadowed, à la The Gambler last year.

Joy should do solidly (Fox is running a very snazzy, uptempo ad campaign), though I believe it will fall short of, say, Unbroken's 15m first day.

My opening-day predictions -

Joy: 9.4 million
Concussion: 5

I believe The Revenant could have done 14 or 15 million on Christmas Day if released wide.

Joy easily.

Concussion seems like a non event a d as you said title and subject matter hardly scream break out over Christmas.

.

Joy

What red-blooded American wants to see a movie about the most negative aspect to football on Christmas Day?

Joy will beat Concussion, IMO, though I suspect none of the Christmas Day releases this year will come all that close to Unbroken or Into the Woods' numbers last year.

Point Break seems like a flop and Daddy's Home...meh.

Joy. I agree about Concussion, doesn't seem like a breakout.

Top 5 on Christmas should be:
1. Star Wars
2/3 Daddy's Home or Joy
4/5 Concussion/Alvin

Point Break is gonna floooop.

Silver Linings Playbook and American Hustle were big hits and must have garnered the Russell/Lawrence/Cooper combo lots of goowill. Depending on the theatre count, I could see a $10-12 million opening day for Joy.

Despite not being very well-received Joy still looks to be the much more entertaining film, with a much larger appeal. Concussion will only interest a small group, and therefor it will be no contest.

ill probably go with Joy. Dont think either will break out in a major way since The Big Short is also going wide on the same week. All three are basically fighting for the same adult audiences who dont care about SW.

Or have already seen Star Wars.

The Revenant really should've opened wide on Christmas, not a strong crop of openers. I know everyone's afraid of Star Wars but as 2009 shows big movies can co-exist at this time.

It should have. Or The Hateful Eight.

The Revenant probably would have opened wide on Christmas if it were from any other studio, but as Fox has both that and Joy, I imagine they didn't want to overlap.

Definitely Joy. Really thinking Concussion will disappoint.

Yeah Joy should get this, but I doubt either will breakout anyways. Concussion did have potential at one point, but the marketing has been very subdued and unappealing.

Joy - $8m (Good not great)
Concussion - $4m (Flop)