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mark66
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:41 pm
Posts: 13041
Location: Augsburg (2,038 years young)
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 What kind of opening is needed for SW7 to beat Avatar? What amount of money does SW7 need to earn opening weekend to outgross AVATAR's $760m?
I think a $230m opening weekend guarantees a new domestic No. 1
$200m is 90 %
$175m is 75 %
and $150m is 50 %
What do you think?
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| Sat Aug 29, 2015 7:43 am |
 
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 67039
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Re: What kind of opening is needed for SW7 to beat Avatar? $300m
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| Sat Aug 29, 2015 7:49 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am
Posts: 22679
Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: What kind of opening is needed for SW7 to beat Avatar? I was thinking about $190m and a 4 multiplier.
Though $150m and a 5-ish multiplier is feasible also.
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| Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:03 am |
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stormborn_trooper
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 12:59 pm
Posts: 71
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Re: What kind of opening is needed for SW7 to beat Avatar? It needs legs more than opening. Avatar had 77M opening. Guess what legs, that took it to 760M, must have been like. Both Avengers and Jurassic World had 200M+ openings and topped out in low-mid 600s. Long story short, openers that had over 100M starting advantage ended up with over 100M below Avatar when all was said and done.
I expect SW7 to be great which should provide long legs.
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| Sat Aug 29, 2015 1:53 pm |
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nghtvsn
Extraordinary
Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 7:13 pm
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Location: Warren Theatre Oklahoma
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Re: What kind of opening is needed for SW7 to beat Avatar? The bigger the better. Jurassic came within 100 million with a 208 opening.
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| Sat Aug 29, 2015 1:57 pm |
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stormborn_trooper
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 12:59 pm
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Re: What kind of opening is needed for SW7 to beat Avatar? nghtvsn wrote: The bigger the better. Jurassic came within 100 million with a 208 opening. 100M is a huge gap and the bigger opening the bigger drop. System always balances itself out so certain milestones, that looked locked and loaded initially, become less likely and then locked not to happen.
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| Sat Aug 29, 2015 2:23 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm
Posts: 20345
Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: What kind of opening is needed for SW7 to beat Avatar? 214 million.
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| Sat Aug 29, 2015 3:07 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 21890
Location: Places
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Re: What kind of opening is needed for SW7 to beat Avatar? 295
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| Sat Aug 29, 2015 4:18 pm |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm
Posts: 21641
Location: Walking around somewhere
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Re: What kind of opening is needed for SW7 to beat Avatar? Anything over 120 million would be the right for it(I mean shit it'll be making like 35-60 million a day for like 10 days straight.) It's all about the legs after the holidays.
This is going to be hands down the craziest holiday season of all time. I need to start Christmas shopping now, because it was crazy when hobbit did 80 million and sucked. Imagine if SW rocks and does 160+ OW. Heads will explodes, pigs will fly, and yes Big foot will come in on a UFO.
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| Sat Aug 29, 2015 4:23 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
Posts: 32102
Location: the last free city
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Re: What kind of opening is needed for SW7 to beat Avatar? It'll do $220m OW and that will be enough to set the all-time record 
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| Sat Aug 29, 2015 5:19 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
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Re: What kind of opening is needed for SW7 to beat Avatar? If it's good 175 mil opening can probably do it. I think OW record and Avatar goes down.
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| Sun Aug 30, 2015 4:39 am |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am
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Location: Classified
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Re: What kind of opening is needed for SW7 to beat Avatar? It is gonna Avatar no matter what it opens to. The better question would what does it need to become the first $800m grosser. I think 250 at the very least.
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| Wed Sep 02, 2015 4:36 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
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Re: What kind of opening is needed for SW7 to beat Avatar? JW had summer days for a long time in its run and while SW7 will have initial bigger days I just don't see it getting to $100m with a smaller opening so I guess $210m-$220m will do it.
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| Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:24 pm |
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mark66
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:41 pm
Posts: 13041
Location: Augsburg (2,038 years young)
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Re: What kind of opening is needed for SW7 to beat Avatar? bump...
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| Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:43 pm |
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Kenspy
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Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 12:09 pm
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Re: What kind of opening is needed for SW7 to beat Avatar? If it's a good enough movie (perhaps 90-95% on RT), it will beat Avatar no matter where it opens.
Conversely I think if it is tepidly received (like 60-80% on RT), it'll fall short of Avatar no matter where it opens.
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| Tue Oct 20, 2015 1:16 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
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Re: What kind of opening is needed for SW7 to beat Avatar? Still $300m.
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| Tue Oct 20, 2015 1:43 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
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Location: the last free city
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Re: What kind of opening is needed for SW7 to beat Avatar? Rev wrote: It'll do $220m OW and that will be enough to set the all-time record Fuck Avatar $760m + This bitch is aiming for $1 billion domestic gross
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| Tue Oct 20, 2015 1:54 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am
Posts: 22679
Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: What kind of opening is needed for SW7 to beat Avatar? Avatar really needs to be beaten. It's so forgettable. I think SW7 is looking at around a 180m OW which would be enough.
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| Tue Oct 20, 2015 2:33 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
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Re: What kind of opening is needed for SW7 to beat Avatar? Nah, Avatar feels like a #1 movie of all-time. Just as Titanic and E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial did. The seventh Star Wars flick really doesn't.
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| Tue Oct 20, 2015 4:22 am |
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Chippy
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
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Re: What kind of opening is needed for SW7 to beat Avatar? This is going to need $210+ OW to get past $760 mil.
Do you all realize Avatar made $760 mil? I think you all need to remember.
Seven Hundred. Sixty. Million. Dollars.
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| Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:28 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
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Re: What kind of opening is needed for SW7 to beat Avatar? MadGez wrote: Avatar really needs to be beaten. It's so forgettable. I know. Zero pop culture footprint 6 years out. _________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:37 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: What kind of opening is needed for SW7 to beat Avatar? MadGez wrote: Avatar really needs to be beaten. It's so forgettable. I think SW7 is looking at around a 180m OW which would be enough. I don't think a sequel should ever top the all-time chart. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:51 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
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Re: What kind of opening is needed for SW7 to beat Avatar? Also, just a reminder...
Jurassic World, had pretty good/great WOM, opened with the biggest OW of all time and DIDN'T BEAT TITANIC.
Titanic is OVER $100 MILLION SHORT OF AVATAR.
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| Tue Oct 20, 2015 11:11 am |
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Cynosure
The Dark Knight
Joined: Sun Apr 12, 2015 7:30 am
Posts: 760
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Re: What kind of opening is needed for SW7 to beat Avatar? Algren wrote: Nah, Avatar feels like a #1 movie of all-time. Just as Titanic and E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial did. The seventh Star Wars flick really doesn't. Dr. Lecter wrote: MadGez wrote: Avatar really needs to be beaten. It's so forgettable. I think SW7 is looking at around a 180m OW which would be enough. I don't think a sequel should ever top the all-time chart. This. If this becomes the all-time domestic #1 it'll be the worst box office news in quite a while. Thankfully, I think fans are deluding themselves.
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| Tue Oct 20, 2015 1:31 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 21890
Location: Places
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Re: What kind of opening is needed for SW7 to beat Avatar? Chippy wrote: Also, just a reminder...
Jurassic World, had pretty good/great WOM, opened with the biggest OW of all time and DIDN'T BEAT TITANIC.
Titanic is OVER $100 MILLION SHORT OF AVATAR. Inside Out took a lot away from JW, TBF. 250M or it aint happening. _________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Tue Oct 20, 2015 4:22 pm |
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