100-55-50 would have it miss the record. So out.
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| Star Wars: TFA 45% Sat drop club http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=77268 |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Sun May 03, 2015 5:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Star Wars: TFA 45% Sat drop club |
With the fanbase, I'm certain it will be much higher than Avengers 2. I doubt it will be as frontloaded as Harry Potter, but the prequels became dramatically more frontloaded over time. Also December can deflate the opening, but it should deflate opening day less with the fans, so that could result in a greater Sat drop than would be the case in other months. What do you say? |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Sun May 03, 2015 5:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Star Wars: TFA 45% Sat drop club |
Out. I see 25% or less. It will have decent legs throughout the holidays. Only the fanboys will rush out to see it. It has families as well as more casual audiences that will wait for Christmas or after. |
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| Author: | Excel [ Sun May 03, 2015 5:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Star Wars: TFA 45% Sat drop club |
Maybe in May. No way in December. A more interesting club would be what % of it's OD the sneaks/midnights make, which will be huge. I could see 30 million midnights for a 60 million opening day ala Potter followed by a big bump on Saturday to say, 40 million, then down to 30 or so on Sunday, for example. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sun May 03, 2015 10:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Star Wars: TFA 45% Sat drop club |
I don't see this beating Hobbit's December OW record in a day...not possible and its NOT dropping 45% on its first Saturday even with frontloading. |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Sun May 03, 2015 10:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Star Wars: TFA 45% Sat drop club |
100-55-50 would have it miss the record. So out.
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Sun May 03, 2015 11:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Star Wars: TFA 45% Sat drop club |
Flava'd vs The World wrote: 100-55-50 would have it miss the record. So out. Missing the record is a given duh. It won't get within 75 million of it. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Mon May 04, 2015 12:58 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Star Wars: TFA 45% Sat drop club |
Out. |
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| Author: | Rev [ Mon May 04, 2015 5:58 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Star Wars: TFA 45% Sat drop club |
Hell No!  seriously dude
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| Author: | DP07 [ Fri Dec 18, 2015 1:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Star Wars: TFA 45% Sat drop club |
So, like I said, the Dec. won't help it hold OW. The effect will kick in on the weekdays and into the second week. I don't think it will drop more than 25% on Sunday, so it probably needs a weekend over 240m to avoid a 45% drop Sat. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Fri Dec 18, 2015 1:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Star Wars: TFA 45% Sat drop club |
In now. |
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| Author: | Heinrich Himmler [ Fri Dec 18, 2015 1:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Star Wars: TFA 45% Sat drop club |
zwackerms and Excels last hope... |
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| Author: | BJ [ Fri Dec 18, 2015 1:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Star Wars: TFA 45% Sat drop club |
out |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Fri Dec 18, 2015 1:49 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Star Wars: TFA 45% Sat drop club |
I don't think there has ever been a drop from previews to Friday. I'm not sure if that would hurt its chances or help it. Depends on how much the frontloading means for Sat. |
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| Author: | Biggestgeekever [ Fri Dec 18, 2015 5:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Star Wars: TFA 45% Sat drop club |
DP07 wrote: I don't think there has ever been a drop from previews to Friday. I'm not sure if that would hurt its chances or help it. Depends on how much the frontloading means for Sat. I think a 45+% drop is going to probably necessitate a minimal increase or even a slight drop from Friday business. Which is possible, but has become very uncommon since the Aurora shooting. |
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| Author: | Kadence [ Fri Dec 18, 2015 5:52 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Star Wars: TFA 45% Sat drop club |
Looks like it'll be a close call. Excel wrote: Maybe in May. No way in December. A more interesting club would be what % of it's OD the sneaks/midnights make, which will be huge. I could see 30 million midnights for a 60 million opening day ala Potter followed by a big bump on Saturday to say, 40 million, then down to 30 or so on Sunday, for example. $130?!? Holy crap! I thought I was being pessimistic when I thought a few months back this would "only" hit $170-190 on account of it being December 
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| Author: | Thegun [ Fri Dec 18, 2015 5:56 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Star Wars: TFA 45% Sat drop club |
Jack Sparrow wrote: I don't see this beating Hobbit's December OW record in a day...not possible and its NOT dropping 45% on its first Saturday even with frontloading. It's not even gonna be close, could beat it by nearly 50-60% more. Absolutely insane. |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Sat Dec 19, 2015 5:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Star Wars: TFA 45% Sat drop club |
So, it needs about 66.3m. This can be close. |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Sat Dec 19, 2015 10:19 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Star Wars: TFA 45% Sat drop club |
zwackerm wrote: Flava'd vs The World wrote: 100-55-50 would have it miss the record. So out. Missing the record is a given duh. It won't get within 75 million of it. 
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Sat Dec 19, 2015 10:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Star Wars: TFA 45% Sat drop club |
DHD is saying 5% drop minus previews and 50% drop with previews. So this club is on. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sat Dec 19, 2015 11:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Star Wars: TFA 45% Sat drop club |
Thegun wrote: Jack Sparrow wrote: I don't see this beating Hobbit's December OW record in a day...not possible and its NOT dropping 45% on its first Saturday even with frontloading. It's not even gonna be close, could beat it by nearly 50-60% more. Absolutely insane. I know its just insane how frontloaded this franchise is overall. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sat Dec 19, 2015 11:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Star Wars: TFA 45% Sat drop club |
Keyser Söze wrote: DHD is saying 5% drop minus previews and 50% drop with previews. So this club is on. That is just projection but yeah given the HEAVY preview number 45% doesn't seem like a big drop. Previews made 45% of the Friday business. |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Sun Dec 20, 2015 4:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Star Wars: TFA 45% Sat drop club |
43% est. Well, that was interesting. Probably will be confirmed by actuals, but it may be even closer. |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Sun Dec 20, 2015 4:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Star Wars: TFA 45% Sat drop club |
Jack Sparrow wrote: Keyser Söze wrote: DHD is saying 5% drop minus previews and 50% drop with previews. So this club is on. That is just projection but yeah given the HEAVY preview number 45% doesn't seem like a big drop. Previews made 45% of the Friday business. Well that depends on how you look at it: is it frontloaded because of previews, or did it get those previews because it is frontloaded? But yeah, this club was based on the idea of huge previews. |
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| Author: | Biggestgeekever [ Sun Dec 20, 2015 5:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Star Wars: TFA 45% Sat drop club |
It's over, man. If anything, the trend seems to be for a mega opener's Friday to be overestimated by a million or so. |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Sun Dec 20, 2015 5:38 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Star Wars: TFA 45% Sat drop club |
Sometimes when Sunday is underestimated, Saturday is overestimated. |
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