No one wants to see Alvin and the Chipmunks 4 apart from 5 year olds. And a lot of those five year olds would rather see Star Wars. The ones that don't see Star Wars will see The Good Dinosaur. I think we could have a Frozen/Walking with Dinosaurs type situation here.

The Good Dinosaur

Weekend 1- 70 million
Weekend 2- 32.2 million, -54%
Weekend 3- 21.9 million, -32%
Weekend 4- 14.7 million, -33%

Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip
Weekend 1- 12 million

girl, nope.

If that is true, explain why the first three Alvin films averaged $190 million domestically.

The third took a huge nosedive, and the 4th will take another nosedive. Less than Annie total, probably. Maybe less than Pixels. Adults are really catching on to the difference between quality and shit family entertainment.

This isn't much of a stretch, IMO. It is the most depressed weekend of the holidays, and a 12-15 million debut could still lead to 85-90 million total.

It won't happen, but I see zwack's point. I also have no idea why FOX would be dumb enough to open it against Star Wars. Sisters I get because it's perfect counter programming, but Star Wars is already a kids movie. Are they hoping to get the toddler crowd? It's not like parents are dumb/inconsiderate enough to bring babies to a cultural event like Star Wars, oh wait...I guess they're hoping for overflow?

By the way, how happy must FOX be opening Alvin (or anything) against their former juggernaut?

Frozen made 19 million 4th weekend off a 67 million opening. This could totally happen.

Sellouts.

I would just watch the Good Dinosaur then. Or go home out of devastation. Alvin looks like crap.

Not a point. Plenty of craps made for kids have been "1st choices".
Did everyone stop going to Drek 2 shows when HP3 opened?

The only reason why this club may succeed is that enough people are tired and uninterested in THIS kind of crap. Which, in my opinion, is at least questionable.

To you, sure it does. But for 5 year olds, I am sure it looks stupidly hilarious.

5 year olds don't buy movie tix.

Oh stop trying to be Chippy version 2.

They do not physically buy tickets, no, but they are the ones choosing which film to see. Do you honestly think a parent just strides into another movie with her child upset because they wanted to see Alvin instead? Nope. Doesn't happen. Parents will always say "so which one do you want to see?", and that's how Alvin will get enough bums on seats. Add into the mix that Star Wars will be sold out in many places. Choice is easy; "do you want to see Good Dinosaur that you saw last week or do you want to see Alvin?" (bearing in mind that the parent will most likely make Alvin seem more appealing because they do not want to sit through Good Dinosaur again!

I won't be that kind of parent.

algren, how will there be many star wars sell outs when you expect a total of 260m for it? star wars should have a rather soft opening weekend then, like 65-75m.

When a family film is hugely appealing (Frozen, Inside Out, Despicable Me 2), it plays for weeks and weeks. soemtimes overshadowing new releases (Walking with Dinosaurs, Turbo, The Smurfs 2). I highly doubt significantly more kids are interested in Alvin 4 than Smurfs 2. The holiday legs will help it get to 80-90 million, but the third came out a long time ago, and the ones that saw those are too old now. It's an entirely new generation of preschoolers

Frozen made 19m 4th weekend, beating the OW of WWD by nearly 3X, Inside Out made 17 million (against Minions!), Despicable Me 2 beat the OW of Turbo. I see no reason for Alvin to do more than Annie OW from last year.

This is also based on The Good Dinosaur being a huge crowd pleaser with ecstatic WOM like Frozen or Inside Out. even if its only on the level of Brave, it should still be close.

Obviously parents steered their kids away from Smurfs in favor of DM2, and I see no reason they won't steer them from ALvin in favor of TGD, unless it were Cars 2 level bad, which Alvin is guaranteed to be.

Not in. I think A&C4 will do close to 20m if not more

For someone who just had a child, Algren doesn't seem to understand how parenting works.

I don't expect a total of $260m for it at all. Oh, you saw my prediction and think you know me? lol. Lecter can explain if he wants to. If not, then I guess you'll never know.

Quite possibly the funniest thing I have read all year, and the best thing is that you won't even be able to see how foolish and uninformed that makes you.

wow, I forgot how well the first 2 did. I'm gonna say that this won't happen. There is a much wider gap from the last movie than usual but I think it'll be able to still open decently, especially if parents don't want to take their kids to a crowded Star Wars screening.

No. The whole idea is based on TGD have WoM like Frozen or IO. I just don't see the signs pointing to that right now. Also Alvin is still a decent choice for families even with SW as direct competition both these can survive together. Another thing to note that TGD would also face MUCH bigger competition with SW taking away families, I can't see a low-30's drop for it.

I think Fox is just trying to get their foot in the door in time for Xmas. They know the Alvin fad has gone, but the Holidays are a tide that lift all boats. The last one made 133m four years ago, they probably figure this one is good for around what the third Night at the Museum did last year.

This is all to say it could actually open to 10m and still make 80m or something.

Even if WOM isn't as strong as IO or Frozen, it's hard to imagine as an original Pixar movie it won't be pretty damn well received. Even Brave level WOM would be good enough.

I disagree about more competition. Sure SW will be huge, but there are no other films even considered locks for 100 million. Frozen never would have gotten 400 million without crossover appeal, which means even The Wolf of Wall Street, American Hustle, and Anchorman were sucking air out of the room, not to mention Hobbit. All of those films together equal way more than SW will make, and while one may argue that's not direct competition, 70% of SW ticket buyers so far have been men 18-49, which was a main target for all of the aforementioned films.

This club at least has a chance to happen. Unlike SW 100m OD, which is absolutely ridiculous and not happening in your dizziest of daydreams.