| World of KJ http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/ |
|
| Weekend Estimates http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=74560 |
Page 1 of 2 |
| Author: | mark66 [ Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:02 am ] |
| Post subject: | Weekend Estimates |
...trickling in... http://www.boxoffice.com/statistics/bo_ ... 2014-06-01 |
|
| Author: | Jonathan [ Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:29 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Magnus wrote: Zilla got a 12.23m weekend according to BO.com. Either it's Friday was under estimated or it got a really really strong IM. Still think 200m ain't a lock for it but it probably now is going to get close enough that WB will push it. RTH said that it had a $5.3 million Saturday, which would be close to a 60%+ increase. Definitely a lot better than I was expecting. |
|
| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:38 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
How long until Grown Ups 3 is announced? |
|
| Author: | Jonathan [ Sun Jun 01, 2014 11:10 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Godzilla needs a 3.07 multiplier to make it to $200 million, while TASM2 needs a 2.92 multiplier. Both are probably going to need their studios to push them to the marks, although I'm not too optimistic about Godzilla making it anymore. |
|
| Author: | Jonathan [ Sun Jun 01, 2014 11:38 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Quote: MALEFICENT opened with an estimated $70.0M this weekend. #Maleficent Very nice start. With Snow White's multiplier it gets to $193.2 million, but the family appeal is stronger, and it seems like WOM is stronger as well, so I think $200 million is actually pretty likely right now, as long as it doesn't continue this summer's uber-frontloading trend. |
|
| Author: | Corpse [ Sun Jun 01, 2014 11:41 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Maleficent, Godzilla, and Spider-Man will finish within $1 million of one another. |
|
| Author: | Jonathan [ Sun Jun 01, 2014 11:48 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
BOM Disney is estimating a 21.6% Sunday drop for Maleficent, which seems incredibly optimistic. So it'll probably fall below $70 million in the actuals, but that's still a strong opening. Chef and Belle are leading very solid runs in semi-wide release. If Chef expands again it should finish with at least $15 million, while Belle should be on track for a $10-12 million total. Captain America is only $10,000 away from passing The Lego Movie for #1 movie of 2014, a title it'll hold for at least another month. I still don't think CA3 should surrender the first weekend of May 2016 because of BvS, but the April release worked so well for CA2 I don't think it'd be a bad idea to do early April again. |
|
| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Sun Jun 01, 2014 11:51 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Corpse wrote: Maleficent, Godzilla, and Spider-Man will finish within $1 million of one another. I doubt it. Maleficent will probably see a 55% drop this upcoming weekend and then another 50% drop the next when it loses all its Imax theaters. I think it has to split them with Edge of Tomorrow this weekend too. A ~2.5 multiplier gets it around $175M which seems reasonable to me. |
|
| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jun 01, 2014 11:56 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Damn those early Friday numbers had me so hopeful for X-Men. |
|
| Author: | BK [ Sun Jun 01, 2014 11:57 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Don't think Maleficient can withstand Fault/Dragon combo. In fact, in the next two weekends, pretty much an entire target audience is appealed to. Action/Sci-Fi/Romance/Drama/Comedy/Animation/Adventure/Kids/Adults/Teenage Girls/Men/College Kids/High School Kids/etc etc |
|
| Author: | Jonathan [ Sun Jun 01, 2014 12:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
I think people are slightly overestimating Fault's effect on Maleficent next weekend. The female demo will be taken away, but it's still going to have the family demo all to itself, which should counter that. HTTYD2 will be rough, but after that it has clear sailing for a few weeks - the only other family film in the month after HTTYD2 is Earth to Echo, which seems like a non-event. Also, weekday numbers are going to start being really strong for it. Snow White and the Huntsman never had a drop better than 39% when it was in wide release and still managed a 2.76 multiplier. |
|
| Author: | BK [ Sun Jun 01, 2014 12:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Well, maybe WOM is good. I think it dropped to 74% on Flixster but went back up to 77%. I just don't know if it is. I mean, people seem lukewarm and lukewarm resulted in Godzilla legs. Of course it won't be as bad, but still, this has a lot more competition than Oz and Alice. We will see what people really think. |
|
| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jun 01, 2014 12:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Female is a bigger demo for Maleficent plus Fault is PG-13 movie its definitely will have good amount of children (aka taken by their moms). |
|
| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sun Jun 01, 2014 12:49 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
lol at Godzilla and Spider-Man. Deserved. Maleficent has 2 more weekends of direct competition. Its weekdays will probably be great though. Now that Million Ways has already fizzled I'm fairly more confident 22 Jump Street will open with 60+ million. |
|
| Author: | Biggestgeekever [ Sun Jun 01, 2014 12:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Maleficent's flixster rating is actually pretty good for the genre. It's going to finish noticeably higher than Oz, Alice, or Snow White, so I think it'll have at least a 2.8 multiplier. $195-$210m. A Million Ways, on the other hand, has a terrible flixster score. $40m finish if it's lucky. |
|
| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sun Jun 01, 2014 12:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
I think it'd be amusing if 22 Jump Street opened above Dragon, which I kind of think might happen. |
|
| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jun 01, 2014 12:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
It looks like Godzilla's run to $200m would be even more difficult than that of TASM2 which would still do $198m now. |
|
| Author: | Riggs [ Sun Jun 01, 2014 12:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
I hope Edge of Tomorrow is going to benefit from all those crappy numbers left and right. |
|
| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jun 01, 2014 12:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
publicenemy#1 wrote: I think it'd be amusing if 22 Jump Street opened above Dragon, which I kind of think might happen. Nah. Don't see 22JS opening above $60m which HTTYD2 should clear. |
|
| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sun Jun 01, 2014 1:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
22JS will do 60+. It's been enough time since Neighbors (which I keep forgetting did 49 million, crazy) for that audience to see 22JS, and Million Ways flopped so that's not a problem. |
|
| Author: | Biggestgeekever [ Sun Jun 01, 2014 1:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Magnus wrote: Dragon 2 and 22 Jump Street are positoned for graat success. If they combine for less than 130m I'll be disappointed. |
|
| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jun 01, 2014 1:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Same here for Dragon 2 opening. I think the best it can do is double to opening of the original ($87.4m) but anything above that doesn't sound right to me and even that might not happen IMO. |
|
| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Sun Jun 01, 2014 1:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
I don't think Dragon will open to less than $75-80 million. That should be the floor. |
|
| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jun 01, 2014 1:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
The opening of Maleficent this weekend does show that kids are ready to get a new movie so yes based on that HTTYD2 could open HUGE. I won't even dare to say that the potential is there to see a Shrek2 kind of increase over OW but right now I don't see that happening. |
|
| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Sun Jun 01, 2014 1:56 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is a near lock to pass $200 million because it will definitely get to $198 million and Sony will push it from there. Godzilla needs to avoid a 50% drop next weekend, otherwise it is not hitting $200 million. A Million Ways to Die in the West's opening is about as embarrassing as Blended's opening. BTW, I still can't believe that Heaven is for Real is gonna get to around $90 million. I mean, wow! |
|
| Page 1 of 2 | All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ] |
| Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group http://www.phpbb.com/ |
|