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Actual Friday Estimates
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=74551		 Page 1 of 3
Author:  Jonathan [ Sat May 31, 2014 9:52 am ]
Post subject:  Actual Friday Estimates
Trickling in from Twitter...

@BoxOffice
A MILLION WAYS TO DIE IN THE WEST opened with an estimated $6.1M on Friday. #AMillionWaysToDieInTheWest

@BoxOffice
NEIGHBORS took in an estimated $2.4M on Friday. Domestic total now stands at $123.29M. #Neighbors
Author:  Jonathan [ Sat May 31, 2014 9:58 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Actual Friday Estimates
The lack of legs for Neighbors has been kinda weird. It seemed like WOM has been solid, it's on track for three 44%+ drops in a row. Despite a massive opening it'll finish within the range everyone expected pre-opening ($140-160 million).
Author:  Jonathan [ Sat May 31, 2014 10:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Actual Friday Estimates
Quote:
GODZILLA took in an estimated $3.31M on Friday. Domestic total now stands at $165.74M. #Godzilla

BLENDED took in an estimated $2.38M on Friday. Domestic total now stands at $23.58M. #Blended


Godzilla will be the the first $90+ million opener to fail to make $200 million. Yeesh.
Author:  Libs [ Sat May 31, 2014 10:17 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Actual Friday Estimates
Pretty blah opening for Million Ways.

Godzilla's word-of-mouth is either really bad or it's just being hurt by all the competition.

The box office looks like it's time for Slaylene Woodley and The Fault in Our Stars next weekend.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sat May 31, 2014 10:21 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Actual Friday Estimates
Libs wrote:
Godzilla's word-of-mouth is either really bad or it's just being hurt by all the competition.



Both. Also, I think it opened above expectations and now pays the price. The amazing marketing just made it more frontloaded.
Author:  Algren [ Sat May 31, 2014 10:23 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Actual Friday Estimates
But if the movie had been great, the WOM would have countered that frontloadedness.
Author:  Excel [ Sat May 31, 2014 10:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Actual Friday Estimates
Godzilla doesn't have bad word of mouth. I think folks have complaints about the movie but nobody is saying "Godzilla sucked" or "godzilla was horrible".

so-so wom + competition + always going to be frontloaded + great marketing = horrible legs.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sat May 31, 2014 11:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Actual Friday Estimates
That's awful for Godzilla.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sat May 31, 2014 11:07 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Actual Friday Estimates
Because it sucks even when the movie is good.
Author:  SolC9 [ Sat May 31, 2014 11:10 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Actual Friday Estimates
Magnus wrote:
Why is it so hard for people to accept that Godzilla WOM sucks


Of the 10 or so people I've talked to at work that saw Godzilla, only 1 said it sucks. That was balanced by the 1 that said it was awesome. The rest were in the okay to good range. A movie like this needs strong consensus that it's a must see in order to break out of it's monster movie fanbase that rushed out OW. This movie just doesn't have that consensus, thus the massive drops.
Author:  mark66 [ Sat May 31, 2014 11:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Actual Friday Estimates
Remember the times when a sequel opened to $92m, was disliked by most and still managed to gross $282m?

Oh well, 2003 is eons away...
Author:  Jonathan [ Sat May 31, 2014 11:25 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Actual Friday Estimates
mark66 wrote:
Remember the times when a sequel opened to $92m, was disliked by most and still managed to gross $282m?

Oh well, 2003 is eons away...


Although that movie also made $144.4 million in its first five days, compared to Godzilla's $107.8 million. From those numbers Godzilla's legs will only be moderately worse (1.95 multiplier vs. 1.76).
Author:  mark66 [ Sat May 31, 2014 11:32 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Actual Friday Estimates
$24.25m MALEFICENT

For a while I was worried it would open below DIVERGENT ($22.78m)...
Author:  Jonathan [ Sat May 31, 2014 11:34 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Actual Friday Estimates
Quote:
MALEFICENT opened with an estimated $24.25M on Friday. #Maleficent

X-MEN: DAYS OF FUTURE PAST took in an estimated $9.4M on Friday. Domestic total now stands at $138.87M. #XMEN #DOFP


Very solid opening day number, should finish the weekend somewhere in the middle of everyone's expectations. It also received an "A" from Cinemascore, above Alice in Wonderland (A-) and Oz (B+), which seems like an early strong indicator for WOM.

I was hoping for better from X-Men, but considering how frontloaded the franchise has always been I guess that was silly. Also, pretty much everything this month has been ridiculously frontloaded due to the competition from everything. Such dumb scheduling.
Author:  Biggestgeekever [ Sat May 31, 2014 11:34 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Actual Friday Estimates
http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?s ... -30&p=.htm

Pretty much the worst possible numbers I would have thought, for everything. Very depressing weekend.

It's hard to call Million Ways a bomb when it's not a $100+m budgeted blockbuster, but it's at the very least incredibly disappointing. I was contemplating a sub $20m opening before, but I didn't think it would sink this low.
Author:  _axiom [ Sat May 31, 2014 11:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Actual Friday Estimates
Magnus wrote:
Why is it so hard for people to accept that Godzilla WOM sucks

The same reason people can't accept that X-Men will never have good legs no matter WOM. They're too blinded by the love/like they have towards those movies.
Author:  Biggestgeekever [ Sat May 31, 2014 11:47 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Actual Friday Estimates
I think the legs on display so far this summer has vindicated CA2's April release as the best scheduling decision in the last few years. I think it would have still held better than ASM2, Godzilla, or X-men if it, say, started off the summer, but it certainly wouldn't have gotten those sub-40% drops that it did. Disney could have muscled their way into the June or July, but instead they played it smart and it really paid off.
Author:  Algren [ Sat May 31, 2014 11:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Actual Friday Estimates
_axiom wrote:
Magnus wrote:
Why is it so hard for people to accept that Godzilla WOM sucks

The same reason people can't accept that X-Men will never have good legs no matter WOM. They're too blinded by the love/like they have towards those movies.

Yep. And the sad thing is that this is not a new revelation. This has been going on for decades.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sat May 31, 2014 11:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Actual Friday Estimates
_axiom wrote:
Magnus wrote:
Why is it so hard for people to accept that Godzilla WOM sucks

The same reason people can't accept that X-Men will never have good legs no matter WOM. They're too blinded by the love/like they have towards those movies.


First Class had surprisingly good legs.
Author:  Algren [ Sat May 31, 2014 11:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Actual Friday Estimates
We truly are in a new Disney era.
Author:  David [ Sat May 31, 2014 11:56 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Actual Friday Estimates
Can Maleficent reach 200 million with this type of opening day?
Author:  Jonathan [ Sat May 31, 2014 12:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Actual Friday Estimates
David wrote:
Can Maleficent reach 200 million with this type of opening day?


Snow White and the Huntsman had a 2.76 multiplier despite minimal family appeal and unspectacular WOM. If Maleficent can avoid a 55%+ drop next weekend (not impossble), it's in the cards still.
Author:  Bradley Witherberry [ Sat May 31, 2014 12:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Actual Friday Estimates
Excel wrote:
nobody is saying "Godzilla sucked" or "godzilla was horrible".

That is not true.
Author:  Algren [ Sat May 31, 2014 12:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Actual Friday Estimates
David wrote:
Can Maleficent reach 200 million with this type of opening day?

Considering the terrible legs this Summer so far, no it definitely can not.
Author:  David [ Sat May 31, 2014 12:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Actual Friday Estimates
I was interested in answers from reasonable people, Algren. ;)
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