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Weekend Estimates
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Author:  mark66 [ Sun Nov 17, 2013 10:36 am ]
Post subject:  Weekend Estimates
http://www.boxoffice.com/statistics/bo_ ... 2013-11-17

...trickling in...
Author:  Algren [ Sun Nov 17, 2013 11:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
Gravity $6,280,000 -26% $240,555,614

Still dropping well and kicking ass.
Author:  mark66 [ Sun Nov 17, 2013 11:58 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
Once again, a nice multiplier for THOR...
Author:  mark66 [ Sun Nov 17, 2013 12:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
DALLAS did fantastic...
Author:  Jonathan [ Sun Nov 17, 2013 12:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
mark66 wrote:
DALLAS did fantastic...


It's expanding wonderfully - it should do really well next week in semi-wide release. I think it's on track for at least a $20 million total.

12 Years' PTA dropped 43% from last weekend. Heftier than I would've hoped, though I wonder if TBMH hurt it some. It should still finish with at least $40 million by the end of the year. How much farther it goes after that will depend on how much of an awards boost it receives.
Author:  mark66 [ Sun Nov 17, 2013 12:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
NEBRASKA did fine...
Author:  Libs [ Sun Nov 17, 2013 12:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
Audience breakdown for The Best Man Holiday:
75% female, 87% African-American, 63% 35 and older.

Pretty good weekend all around. Obviously a fantastic performance for The Best Man. Thor held pretty well. Excellent drops for pretty much everything, which I would've hoped for given there was only one new release.

Dallas Buyers Club is doing really well.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sun Nov 17, 2013 12:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
Last Vegas' legs are fantastic. I think it is tapping into similar audiences that made films like Quartet and The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel such success stories. Older audiences definitely need more films aimed at them. There is some untapped potential there. Last Vegas is now looking good for a $60+ million total.

Nice drop for About Time. With some luck it could crawl to $20 million.
Author:  _axiom [ Sun Nov 17, 2013 12:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
Last Vegas is easily becoming CBS Films' highest grossing movie and it will likely remain on top for at least next two years considering how boring their release schedule looks.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sun Nov 17, 2013 1:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
I am pretty sure they'll push for a sequel.
Author:  Dil [ Sun Nov 17, 2013 1:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
So Thor is playing exactly like a family film after all. Even with CF coming out next week it should still be the number one choice for family audiences.

Great opening for BMH and the drops all around are solid in general.
Author:  Bradley Witherberry [ Sun Nov 17, 2013 1:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
Dr. Lecter wrote:
I am pretty sure they'll push for a sequel.

Last Alamos: Gone Nuclear
Author:  Jonathan [ Sun Nov 17, 2013 1:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
- 20 Blue Is the Warmest Color IFC $274,000 +9.7% 108 +37 $2,537 $1,152,000 - 4

This is probably its peak weekend, though it should still be able to pass $2 million at least. I was hoping it would break out more, but it's still a very nice run for the kind of film it is.

This weekend is down nearly 50% from last year, but considering the lack of a $138 million opener that's to be expected. But if we compare this to the post-Thanksgiving weekend of last year it's up 15%. I think that's important since Thanksgiving is a week later and the pre-Thanksgiving weekend is next weekend. If that makes sense.
Author:  _axiom [ Sun Nov 17, 2013 1:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
Dr. Lecter wrote:
I am pretty sure they'll push for a sequel.

I really don't see sequel doing better than this. Last Vegas is performing well, but it's not doing anything groundbreaking. It's not a mini Hangover and a sequel wouldn't pull a mini Hangover 2.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sun Nov 17, 2013 1:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
_axiom wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
I am pretty sure they'll push for a sequel.

I really don't see sequel doing better than this. Last Vegas is performing well, but it's not doing anything groundbreaking. It's not a mini Hangover and a sequel wouldn't pull a mini Hangover 2.


Since then has this kind of thinking stopped a sequel from coming?

The sequel woukd inevitably go down, but if they keep the budget at $30 million or less, they could still have another easy success.
Author:  TServo2049 [ Sun Nov 17, 2013 1:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
For those who think a sequel to Last Vegas would be an "easy success," I have two words: Red. 2.

We don't need a sequel to Last Vegas. We need more original stories that attract the same demographic in the same way as Last Vegas. (But it's Hollywood, so the more likely scenario is a bunch of films trying, and failing, to be "the next Last Vegas".)

To me, Last Vegas is playing sort of like a smaller-scale Space Cowboys. It may even match that film's unadjusted total (but not its admissions - Space Cowboys adjusts to $135 million, which could qualify for the "Holy adjusted gross shit" thread).
Author:  _axiom [ Sun Nov 17, 2013 1:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
Dr. Lecter wrote:
_axiom wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
I am pretty sure they'll push for a sequel.

I really don't see sequel doing better than this. Last Vegas is performing well, but it's not doing anything groundbreaking. It's not a mini Hangover and a sequel wouldn't pull a mini Hangover 2.


Since then has this kind of thinking stopped a sequel from coming?

The sequel woukd inevitably go down, but if they keep the budget at $30 million or less, they could still have another easy success.

All true. But I always hope Hollywood will eventually wise up about making unnecessary sequels. :|
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sun Nov 17, 2013 1:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
TServo2049 wrote:
For those who think a sequel to Last Vegas would be an "easy success," I have two words: Red. 2.

We don't need a sequel to Last Vegas. We need more original stories that attract the same demographic in the same way as Last Vegas. (But it's Hollywood, so the more likely scenario is a bunch of films trying, and failing, to be "the next Last Vegas".)

To me, Last Vegas is playing sort of like a smaller-scale Space Cowboys. It may even match that film's unadjusted total (but not its admissions - Space Cowboys adjusts to $135 million, which could qualify for the "Holy adjusted gross shit" thread).


Red 2 had a $90 million budget. That's the big difference here. A sequel is worth it, if they keep the budget on the same level as for the first.
Author:  Thegun [ Sun Nov 17, 2013 1:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
Last Vegas was hilarious. A sequel would be great. ANd it could potentially do better, especially if this keeps the WOM it's getting, does well on demand and red Box, and they fast track it. Comedies are much easier sell than say action comedy sequels.
Author:  Jonathan [ Sun Nov 17, 2013 2:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
If a Wild Hogs sequel never materialized, I doubt a Last Vegas sequel will. I'm sure they'll try, but the actors all seem like busy people.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sun Nov 17, 2013 2:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
I'm extremely impressed by how well Dallas Buyers Club is expanding.
Author:  jmovies [ Sun Nov 17, 2013 3:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
What a horrible number for Charlie Countryman.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sun Nov 17, 2013 3:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
jmovies wrote:
What a horrible number for Charlie Countryman.


That's not unexpected with it being on-demand as well.
Author:  Jonathan [ Sun Nov 17, 2013 3:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
Magic Mike wrote:
jmovies wrote:
What a horrible number for Charlie Countryman.


That's not unexpected with it being on-demand as well.


It also had kinda terrible reviews.
Author:  Webslinger [ Sun Nov 17, 2013 5:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
Thor held a little bit better than I was expecting. Its hold isn't as strong as that of the first Thor, but it did hold up better than Iron Man 3 did over its second weekend. Another big drop is all but assured against Catching Fire next weekend, but it should still be in line for solid business over Thanksgiving. It should land somewhere in the vicinity of $215-225 million, depending upon how hard it gets hit over the next few weeks. Wherever it ends up in that range, it will be a healthy jump over its predecessor, and it can attribute most - if not all - of that jump to the popularity of The Avengers.

The Best Man Holiday had a great opening. I had no idea that the original Best Man had such a big following, even with the degrees of popularity some of the stars picked up in the intervening 14 years. Even though it's rated R, the Christmas angle probably doesn't hurt at this time of year, either. Legs will probably be "meh," but it's already a huge winner against a modest budget and equally modest expectations. Kudos for Universal for going for this one and selling it as well as they did.

Last Vegas had an excellent hold. It should continue to display great staying power, and could finish around or over $80 million. It's only a few million away from usurping The Woman in Black as the highest-grossing CBS Films release to date.

Free Birds also held well again. It probably has a couple more good holds in it (Thanksgiving should be enough to cancel out the difference despite direct competition from Frozen), but it's toast after that. Nevertheless, it has done well for a second-or-third-tier animation offering.

Bad Grandpa continues to hold far better than I imagined it would. It's a bit mind-boggling that it will cross $100 million with gas still left in the tank.

Gravity is still holding on really well. It's tough to pinpoint how greatly Catching Fire's arrival will affect it, but the fact that it already shed its IMAX screens bodes well for it in that regard.

Ender's Game recovered after last weekend's abysmal hold, but it's in for a world of hurt next weekend.

12 Years a Slave didn't hold quite as well as I had anticipated it would, but it's still performing pretty well considering the subject matter and the scope of its release. As long as Fox Searchlight doesn't let it fall apart in late November like Lionsgate did with Precious four years ago, its long-term prospects should be in good shape.

Captain Phillips is still managing great holds, and is on the cusp of $100 million. It's certainly in the running for the most overlooked run of the year.

About Time held well, even if it's not catching on quite as well as Universal might have hoped. Its overseas performance should make up for the "meh" business here.

This weekend trails last year's by a substantial margin, but... duh. Even if The Wolf of Wall Street had stayed here and broken out with $40 million or more, that still wouldn't be enough to cover the difference that is Twilight and its $141 million start. At least the Catching Fire juggernaut will do a ton to propel next weekend's take.
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