MoS will miss $300M
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| Friday Numbers http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=71171 |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 10:04 am ] |
| Post subject: | Friday Numbers |
Trickling in...https://twitter.com/BoxOffice Pacific Rim - $14.62 million ($4,464 PTA) Fruitvale Station - $127,445 ($18,206 PTA) |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 10:10 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers |
Damn frontloadeD for Pacific Rim. I expect $35-38 million over the weekend. With an "A-"-CinemaScore it might crawl to $100 million. Basically, a performance similar to that of Cowboys & Aliens. |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 10:11 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers |
Not quite as awful as last night indicated for Pacific Rim, but not as awesome as Thursday night indicated. $30 million is assured at least, but it really needed at least $40 million (or close to that) to avoid the "money-loser" label. Great start for Fruitvale! Should have a $50k+ PTA this weekend, or the third best of the year behind Spring Breakers and Place Beyond the Pines, this had one more market to deal with than those two. It's a heavier movie than your average summer indie, but the lack of any sort of straight dramas in wide release since Gatsby could be a big benefit - and there won't be any until Jobs and The Butler in mid-August (which both look awful BTW). With strong reviews, Oscar buzz and a hot topic, it could go far. |
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| Author: | SolC9 [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 10:13 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers |
Dr. Lecter wrote: Damn frontloadeD for Pacific Rim. I expect $35-38 million over the weekend. With an "A-"-CinemaScore it might crawl to $100 million. Basically, a performance similar to that of Cowboys & Aliens. Unless it drops more than 15% on Saturday, it shouldn't miss 36M. But it's not going to do much better than that. |
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| Author: | pro1986 [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 10:19 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers |
Fruitvale is truly a movie to look out for when it goes wide in the 26. |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 10:28 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers |
SolC9 wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Damn frontloadeD for Pacific Rim. I expect $35-38 million over the weekend. With an "A-"-CinemaScore it might crawl to $100 million. Basically, a performance similar to that of Cowboys & Aliens. Unless it drops more than 15% on Saturday, it shouldn't miss 36M. But it's not going to do much better than that. Hm? Subtract $3.6 million in previews and Pacific Rim actually made just $11.02 million on Friday. It could increase 10% on Saturday, to $12.1 million and drop 30% on Sunday to $8.5 million and make $35.2 million over the weekend. Best-case scenario, it increases 30% without previews, to $14.3 million and then drops around 30% on Sunday. That'd give it a $39 million weekend. |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 10:28 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers |
http://www.boxoffice.com/statistics/bo_ ... 2013-07-13 There seems to be no Drive-In effect for MOS... |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 10:35 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers |
pro1986 wrote: Fruitvale is truly a movie to look out for when it goes wide in the 26. I just double-checked, and the only non-action/animated/comedy movies to get a wide release since 42 opened back in mid-April have been Great Gatsby, Now You See Me, Before Midnight and Bling Ring. And considering that the first two were aimed at younger audiences more than older and that the last two were total non-events when they went wide, that definitely gives Fruitvale a big shot at breaking out of the Weinsteins handle it well. At the very least it should be good for matching Beasts of the Southern Wild's $12 million gross, I think. |
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| Author: | SolC9 [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 10:36 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers |
I don't think it will drop more than 25% on Sunday, and possibly as low as 20%. 14.62M Friday + previews 12.4M Saturday (-15% from the total reported Friday number) 9.3M Sunday (-25% drop) = 36.32M So unless it drops more than 15% from it's reported Friday gross on Saturday, I don't see it missing 36M. Sorry I wasn't clear. |
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| Author: | Libs [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 10:51 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers |
Grown Ups 2 was huge as I expected. I dunno why anyone is surprised at this. The original one had crazy legs, and this just promised more of the same. It also didn't have a restrictive R rating (That's My Boy) or look like the worst movie in recorded history (Jack & Jill). Pacific Rim still did better than I expected. Massive premiere numbers for Fruitvale Station. I see this expanding pretty well on its way to several Oscar nominations. |
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| Author: | Kenspy [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 10:56 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers |
Magnus wrote: PR is essentially C&A. Could crawl to 100m but the plethora of July releases could hurt it a lot. I don't think that comparison is fair...C&A is at 44% on Rotten Tomatoes and is sitting at 6.1 on IMDb. Pacific Rim is at 72% and will probably be 7.5 on IMDb. There will be MUCH better word of mouth for Pacific Rim. |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 11:22 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers |
Jon wrote: pro1986 wrote: Fruitvale is truly a movie to look out for when it goes wide in the 26. I just double-checked, and the only non-action/animated/comedy movies to get a wide release since 42 opened back in mid-April have been Great Gatsby, Now You See Me, Before Midnight and Bling Ring. And considering that the first two were aimed at younger audiences more than older and that the last two were total non-events when they went wide, that definitely gives Fruitvale a big shot at breaking out of the Weinsteins handle it well. At the very least it should be good for matching Beasts of the Southern Wild's $12 million gross, I think. The Purge is action then? |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 11:26 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers |
Quote: BoxOffice @BoxOffice 9m KEVIN HART: LET ME EXPLAIN: $1.60M Friday (est) / $22.98M Domestic Total / 892 Locations / $1,791 Location Avg. THE WAY WAY BACK: $304,000 Friday (est) / $1.05M Domestic Total / 79 Locations / $3,848 Location Avg. #TheWayWayBack That would actually be a pretty decent for Let Me Explain, honestly. Considering his fanbase and the usual rush for urban films, a 57% day-to-day drop is pretty decent, and could translate to a sub-50% drop for the weekend. It should finish with $30-35 million, making it the second most-successful stand-up film since the '80s, even adjusted for inflation. An underrated success story of the summer, I think. Solid expansion for TWWB. Won't be a big summer indie breakout, but it's looking good for at least $15-20 million, which is pretty solid all around considering reviews are only, well, solid. |
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| Author: | TServo2049 [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 11:30 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers |
mark66 wrote: There seems to be no Drive-In effect for MOS... That's because drive-ins aren't double-featuring MOS with PR. I've checked various drive-ins' websites, and most of them aren't even showing it anymore. With the crowded summer, and a fair share of movies doing better business than MOS, there's enough product that they're not double-featuring MOS with PR like they were Oz with IM3, GI Joe with STID, 42 with MOS, and IM3 with MU. (I'm not sure if WB even offered a PR/MOS double feature to drive-ins.) I still think Excel was wrong that MOS and PR should have been swapped - if PR had opened on June 14, its second weekend would have been absolutely decimated by WWZ. At least in this slot, it has a chance at better legs (in relative terms), since next weekend's direct competition will be Red 2 and RIPD, whose combined openings almost certainly won't match WWZ's $66m. |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 11:31 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers |
Dr. Lecter wrote: Jon wrote: pro1986 wrote: Fruitvale is truly a movie to look out for when it goes wide in the 26. I just double-checked, and the only non-action/animated/comedy movies to get a wide release since 42 opened back in mid-April have been Great Gatsby, Now You See Me, Before Midnight and Bling Ring. And considering that the first two were aimed at younger audiences more than older and that the last two were total non-events when they went wide, that definitely gives Fruitvale a big shot at breaking out of the Weinsteins handle it well. At the very least it should be good for matching Beasts of the Southern Wild's $12 million gross, I think. The Purge is action then? Ah, missed that one. Though like Gatsby and NYSM it was aimed mostly at youth. Man, studios really dropped the ball on movies aimed at adults this summer, didn't they? |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 11:36 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers |
BOM: http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?s ... -12&p=.htm |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 11:36 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers |
Jon wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Jon wrote: pro1986 wrote: Fruitvale is truly a movie to look out for when it goes wide in the 26. I just double-checked, and the only non-action/animated/comedy movies to get a wide release since 42 opened back in mid-April have been Great Gatsby, Now You See Me, Before Midnight and Bling Ring. And considering that the first two were aimed at younger audiences more than older and that the last two were total non-events when they went wide, that definitely gives Fruitvale a big shot at breaking out of the Weinsteins handle it well. At the very least it should be good for matching Beasts of the Southern Wild's $12 million gross, I think. The Purge is action then? Ah, missed that one. Though like Gatsby and NYSM it was aimed mostly at youth. Man, studios really dropped the ball on movies aimed at adults this summer, didn't they? Well, if you look at age distribution, The Heat skewed pretty old actually. |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 11:40 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers |
My projections from these: Despicable Me 2 - $44.6 million Grown Ups 2 - $44 million Pacific Rim - $37.7 million The Heat - $13.2 million The Lone Ranger - $11.6 million Monsters University - $10.4 million World War Z - $9.2 million |
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| Author: | choubachou [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 11:41 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers |
MoS will miss $300M
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 11:42 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers |
Horrendous hold for The Lone Ranger. |
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| Author: | TServo2049 [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 11:46 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers |
Maybe I was right, and this is the weekend where the summer demand burns off, and the gap between this summer and last summer starts to close. Even though this weekend will certainly be bigger than the same one last year (when Ice Age 4 opened), the weekend-to-weekend drop will be greater. When BO.com's predictions came out, they totaled over $200m. Now, their early estimates don't even add up to $190m. The total actuals could end up anywhere between $185m-195m. Still a good weekend, but it's getting more obvious that this July will not increase from the last. It could end up with an sub-10% increase, like in 2009 (6.8%) or 2002 (an anemic 2.5%). I'm crossing my fingers that this month doesn't decrease from June, something that hasn't happened since 1983-84... |
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| Author: | Libs [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 11:54 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers |
The holdovers all got hacked, percentage wise. Last Friday was a pretty big day with so many people off. Despicable Me 2: -56% The Heat: -51.1% Lone Ranger: -68.2% Monsters U: -54.6% World War Z: -56.7% White House Down: -60.5% Man of Steel: -66.2% This is the End: -57.8% |
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| Author: | David [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 11:56 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers |
World War Z's run is so impressive. Short of Avatar, it is the run every studio is surely hoping for when they green-light a big-budget film with an "original" genre concept, such as Pacific Rim. |
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| Author: | Biggestgeekever [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 12:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers |
If it wasn't before, it's definitely game over now for MOS and $300m. Ouch for all the holdovers, really. |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Sat Jul 13, 2013 12:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers |
Magnus wrote: David wrote: World War Z's run is so impressive. Short of Avatar, it is the run every studio is surely hoping for when they green-light a big-budget film with an "original" genre concept, such as Pacific Rim. Inception is the standard for that actually. I am going to assume he meant films that could spawn sequels. |
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