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| Weekend Estimates http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=70805 |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Sun Jun 09, 2013 9:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | Weekend Estimates |
...trickling in... 1 The Purge $36,400,000 -- 2,536 -- $14,353 $36,400,000 1 Universal 2 Fast & Furious 6 $19,800,000 -44% 3,771 85 $5,251 $202,985,695 3 Universal 3 Now You See Me $19,500,000 -34% 3,020 95 $6,457 $61,374,024 2 Lionsgate / Summit 4 The Internship $18,100,000 -- 3,366 -- $5,377 $18,100,000 1 Fox 5 Epic $12,100,000 -27% 3,594 -300 $3,367 $84,154,556 3 Fox 6 Star Trek Into Darkness $11,700,000 -30% 3,152 -433 $3,712 $200,140,439 4 Paramount 7 After Earth $11,200,000 -59% 3,401 0 $3,293 $46,591,569 2 Sony / Columbia 8 The Hangover Part III $7,380,000 -55% 3,242 -323 $2,276 $102,373,956 3 Warner Bros. 9 Iron Man 3 $5,787,000 -31% 2,351 -544 $2,462 $394,316,665 6 Disney 10 The Great Gatsby (2013) $4,230,000 -35% 2,160 -475 $1,958 $136,175,118 5 Warner Bros. http://www.boxoffice.com/statistics/bo_ ... 2013-06-09 ERC Twitter reports 1 % drop for MUD |
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| Author: | Algren [ Sun Jun 09, 2013 9:48 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Official or not, it can't be bad. |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Sun Jun 09, 2013 10:08 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Linklater held up pretty well: Before Midnight $584,648 45% 52 21 $11,243 $1,518,332 |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Sun Jun 09, 2013 11:33 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
$54.5m for the openers and STID & F&F6 above $200m... |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Sun Jun 09, 2013 11:43 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Joss Whedon's Much Ado About Nothing soared at the specialty box office, grossing $185,000 from five theaters for a location average of $37,000, a victory for the filmmaker and Roadside Attractions. http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/b ... ops-565007 |
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| Author: | Corpse [ Sun Jun 09, 2013 11:45 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Hmm.. any explanation why The Croods increased 16% after losing 92 locations? |
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| Author: | Spidey [ Sun Jun 09, 2013 11:57 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Corpse wrote: Hmm.. any explanation why The Croods increased 16% after losing 92 locations? Maybe the release of The Internship? They are both from Fox. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jun 09, 2013 12:13 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
That's great for Purge and specially for Much Ado About Nothing. I guess Whedon's name is getting to art house audience and theaters as well after Avengers. |
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| Author: | zingy [ Sun Jun 09, 2013 12:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
I imagine The Purge will drop quite a bit from estimates. They're estimating a 12% Sunday drop. But still excellent. |
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| Author: | Libs [ Sun Jun 09, 2013 12:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Huge for The Purge. It will get hacked quickly from here, but a probable $70M+ total is pretty damn impressive with a $3M budget and fierce June competition. The Internship performed mildly as expected. Very impressive holds for the holdovers, After Earth and Hangover 3 aside. Now You See Me looks set for over $100M now. Epic will have another week to own the kids market. Nice for Star Trek, Iron Man 3 and Gatsby. Mud dropped less than 1%. A very impressive sleeper hit. Could hit $25M at this rate. Nice hold for Before Midnight. And awesome premiere for Much Ado About Nothing. |
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| Author: | Brian [ Sun Jun 09, 2013 12:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Nice holds everywwhere, except for After Earth and HO3, AE drop is pretty depressing |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Sun Jun 09, 2013 12:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
I thought After Earth would drop 65%+, so 59% seems pretty great to me. Actually pretty great for everything. Can't even call it the calm before the storm. |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sun Jun 09, 2013 1:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
wtf @ the 10% drop on Sunday though. Should drop a couple million w/ actuals but it's still a fantastic number. |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Sun Jun 09, 2013 2:33 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Magnus wrote: Yeah 70m will probably be a struggle for Purge but who cares. It's doing 65m DOM which more than covers its costs. It's a big hit and should be seen as one of the most impressive openings of the year. Um, do you expect worse legs than for The Happening? The release date is very similar and The Happening reached a 2.11 multiplier despite dropping more than 62% for FIVE weekends in a row. Do you really think The Purse will do even worse? Because with The Happening's legs it will reach $76.8 million. So, I doubt it actually will struggle to $70 million, no? Because I see it at $55-60 million by the end of the next weekend. |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Sun Jun 09, 2013 2:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Dr. Lecter wrote: Magnus wrote: Yeah 70m will probably be a struggle for Purge but who cares. It's doing 65m DOM which more than covers its costs. It's a big hit and should be seen as one of the most impressive openings of the year. Um, do you expect worse legs than for The Happening? The release date is very similar and The Happening reached a 2.11 multiplier despite dropping more than 62% for FIVE weekends in a row. Do you really think The Purse will do even worse? Because with The Happening's legs it will reach $76.8 million. So, I doubt it actually will struggle to $70 million, no? Because I see it at $55-60 million by the end of the next weekend. One 70%+ drop could make it close. |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Sun Jun 09, 2013 2:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
DP07 wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Magnus wrote: Yeah 70m will probably be a struggle for Purge but who cares. It's doing 65m DOM which more than covers its costs. It's a big hit and should be seen as one of the most impressive openings of the year. Um, do you expect worse legs than for The Happening? The release date is very similar and The Happening reached a 2.11 multiplier despite dropping more than 62% for FIVE weekends in a row. Do you really think The Purse will do even worse? Because with The Happening's legs it will reach $76.8 million. So, I doubt it actually will struggle to $70 million, no? Because I see it at $55-60 million by the end of the next weekend. One 70%+ drop could make it close. Okay, let's assume the weekend estimates are correct: It drops 70% on its second weekend to $10.9 million Weekdays: The Happening dropped 55.8% on Monday. Let's assume Thr Purge will drop 60%. That's a $3.67 million Monday. The Happening made Monday-Thursday 3.11 times as much as it did on Monday. So using that on The Purge gives us $11.4 million Monday-Thursday for The Purge. That means, after ten days it stands at $58.7 million. The Happening made 54.3% less during its second set of weekdays than during its first. Let's assume The Purge will make 60% less. That's $4.55 million during its second Monday-Thursday. So that gives the film around $63.3 million going into its third weekend. Let's say it drops another 70% to $3.27 million. That means $66.6 million by the end of its third weekend. Let's say the week-to-week weekdays drop is 60% again. That gives it $1.82 million during its third set of weekdays and $68.4 million going into its fourth weekend. Do you think from that point on it would stll miss $70 million? And keep in mind, I am playing out a scenario here much worse than for The Happening which had unimaginably awful WoM. |
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| Author: | Libs [ Sun Jun 09, 2013 2:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
I think people are overestimating how bad the word-of-mouth for The Purge will be. People might not be liking it all that much but they're also not booing it off the screen like they were with The Devil Inside. I'd be quite surprised if it didn't make at least $70M total. |
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| Author: | zingy [ Sun Jun 09, 2013 2:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
I agree with that. I haven't heard anyone really like it, but also I haven't heard anything strongly negative. The Devil Inside has AWFUL word-of-mouth. This doesn't have a "fuck you" ending like that did, so it's probably not as bad. But that said, of course it'll fall quickly. 2.0 multiplier should be possible considering summer weekdays, though. |
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| Author: | Thegun [ Sun Jun 09, 2013 3:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
I don't think it'll do that poorly either. The rain, in addition to the first date movie in a while, and the purge itself being about a single day a year may have inflated it's Friday gross as well. The sub 2.3 Multiplier is very discouraging, but not room for panic yet. But Superman, This is the End, and general 55% drop no matter what could kill it to a sub 10 million weekend 2. But even with that, I don't see it falling below 70 million either. I'm actually hoping for 80. |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Sun Jun 09, 2013 4:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Amazing hold for Mud! I hope it keeps it up. Father's Day could help it out a bit next weekend too. |
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| Author: | Webslinger [ Sun Jun 09, 2013 11:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
The Purge had a great opening. It appeared clear that the film would debut at #1, but I didn't expect it to top $30 million. Chalk it up to the fantastic job Universal's marketing department did in selling the concept, as well as getting it out over the only somewhat open weekend in June. Of course, it was very frontloaded and legs will be quite weak, but with such a scant budget, it's already a huge winner. Fast & Furious 6 continues to hold somewhat weaker than Fast Five did, but it's so far ahead in total that it's hardly an issue. It will pass Fast Five for the highest total in the franchise by Friday at the latest, and it's probably looking at something near $245 million in total. Now You See Me held quite well. The strong word-of-mouth is driving it, and it appears to be all set to top $100 million. The Internship did okay, I guess. It undoubtedly would have done better had it been released a year or two after Wedding Crashers, but it looked really bland and couldn't ride the star power of its leads, as they definitely aren't as potent at the box office now as they were in the mid-to-late-2000s. It probably won't have a long enough shelf life to top its (relatively) modest $58 million budget, either. An opening like this would have been a cause for alarm a few years ago, but it was so obvious that this movie was arriving past its sell-by date that all it gets is a shrug of the shoulders. Epic had an excellent hold, which helps after last weekend's hard drop. We'll see how it does against Man of Steel next weekend, but it's toast when Monsters University opens in two weeks. Star Trek Into Darkness held on very well this weekend. It's relieving to see it surpass $200 million after the disappointment surrounding its opening three weeks ago, but it's going to see a rough drop against Man of Steel next weekend, thanks to the loss of its IMAX screens. It should finish near $225 million, which would be disappointing but far from disastrous. After Earth sees a huge drop, as expected. At this rate, it's going to be the lowest-grossing Will Smith film since Ali, and the least-attended since The Legend of Bagger Vance. I'm guessing this is going to be strike three for M. Night Shyamalan. The Hangover: Part III continues its fast fade. For comparison, Part II fell a much softer 43.7% in its third weekend. All in all, this weekend wasn't as slow as it seemed it might have the potential to be. Now let's see how Man of Steel shakes things up. :thumbup: |
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