I'm officially excited about Lincoln now, and there's not much else going on right at the moment.

To be the all time most attended bio about an elected (or appointed) political leader specifically, it needs to beat JFK. Yes JFK was about the assassination conspiracy and less about the man himself, but whatever - his name is the title.

Non-elected political figure comparison is too big a gray area - you could start comparing it to The King's Speech somewhat fairly, but unfairly, you could even start talking about Passion of the Christ, 300, etc. If you allow comparison to non-politicians in political/war situations like Schindler's List, you really have to allow a whole ton of other films, but I'll toss it in the comparable list anyway, and by extension, Valkyrie. I'm not including straight War films though otherwise. I'll toss in Fahrenheit 9/11 as well even though it's less about Bush than about 9/11 and the administration in general.

So that list, with emphasis on JFK and strictly American president bios, in approx. 2011 dollars (not listing anything below 20 m):

Schindler's List $183,022,100
Fahrenheit 9/11 $152,784,300
The King's Speech $140,191,800
JFK $134,764,500
Valkyrie $92,103,000
Charlie Wilson's War $75,002,100
The Good Shepherd $70,766,800
Thirteen Days $48,659,800
J. Edgar $29,587,381
W. $28,308,400
Nixon $24,774,100
Frost/Nixon $20,645,000

You've got your Spielberg at the helm, who directed Private Ryan to over 360m in adj. dollars, and Schindler's List to 183m. adj. You've got your Daniel Day Lewis, who isn't a box office name per se but has about four score awards including 2 Best Actor Oscars. You've got your Abraham Lincoln, probably one the 2 or 3 most beloved American leaders of all time. And you've got your Obama from Illinois being the first black president, which is quite symbolic of Lincoln, thus the movie arrives at a very interesting time for it in US history. Obama getting reelected may increase the meaningfulness of the film to people in Dec. 2012.

Should be a lock for 75m at any rate. It all depends on wom of course, but I'm going with JFK or better.

Taking members.

In: (italics means conditional on something TBD)
Ryu
Magnus
Jack Sparrow
MadGez

Out:
ionquack
El Murato

For now I can see this happening but everything will depend on WOM, it could become another J.Edgar of 2012, even though it is unlikely. Need to see more marketing and overall how the movie is being handled by Spielberg, but I would say it has a good shot at it right now.

There will be a lot of interest but I assume it will cover his whole life.

I think a lot of people will be interested in the civil war and his death.

Yeah a tough one but providing it also gets awards buzz it should very well pass $135m.

After J.Edgar's performance I'm leaning towards out. Which matters more, the character or the actor portraying them? Leo is a bigger draw than Day-Lewis, but Lincoln is the bigger historical figure.

People definitely want characters and story first - the filmmakers are a distant 2nd.

With Edgar, Nixon, and W, too much was known already about them for people to need to see a movie version - it'd all been said, seen, and written, and too much of that content is negative. Lincoln is on a different level, and no legendary president has ever received such a film treatment. The King's Speech is a good example of how much interest people will have if the character is interesting, sympathetic, and a good role model.

I bet this will be a fairly big draw in the South as well, which always boosts box office.

Well Lincoln is hated in the South by most whites, maybe it will draw in African-Americans. I think a movie about a Lincoln has huge potential.

no. You have to remember that JFK had a huge ensemble cast. Kevin Costner use to mean something back then

Lincoln just has DDL pulling some strange awkward accent out of his ass and making it sound good by huffing it out

Lincoln does have an all star cast so far listed are Tommy Lee Jones, Sally Field, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Jackie Earle Haley, James Spader, David Strathairn, and Jared Harris. Plus it will have Steven Spielberg's name which is bigger than Oliver Stone. Lincoln is also considered to be the nation's favorite president (he is ranked #1 by the public). I think it has a huge potential. The last miniseries about Lincoln had huge ratings.

Its too bad that Spielberg's name isnt as relevant as it use to be in the 90s and 80s. Its all star cast with the exception of , DDL, JGL and JEH are all washed up. Besides Stone's name in the early 90s still is more relevant than today's Spielbergo. Even then

JFK only did that well because of the conspiracy nonsense and the movie is horrible. It's completely historical inaccurate, and I just found it badly written. Of course I have always found Oliver Stone to be a lousy filmmaker who has only made one good movie in Platoon.

In the end, it will depend on how good the movie is. If it is a great movie and gets great reviews and gets Oscars, it will be a huge hit and could make as much as 200 million. If it stinks it could be another Nixon.

Wow, this isn't even close to true. Yeah, I see a few vehicles with confederate flag/stickers on them down here, but it's a small percent. And I've heard of plenty of "good-ol'-confederate-boys," but again it's a small percent. Even a small percent is abhorrent, but it's nowhere near most.

Well I should have said it depends on where in the south. I would say the deep south don't care for him. I am from South Carolina and lived in Tennessee (other than the metro areas like Nashville) and there are many around here that don't like him. It is different if you go to Virginia, North Carolina or farther west like Louisiana. They have a different view.

Uhh. What?

How is Daniel Day Lewis "all washed up"?

Not that we should bother making sense out of this.

He's saying that DDL is an exception.

I think the cast as a whole will be strong though. Most of them aren't draws, but when put together they'll make an appealing ensemble, especially with such a big subject. I'd want a trailer though before predicting, just to get an idea of how it's being marketed.

I think it is just a badly written sentence. I had to read it twice to figure it out.

This is easily going to happen.

Good call.

I still don't think this is a given.

good call as well.

Very good call, great to see Spielberg in a serious direction effort. Really excited to see this.