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bl1222
Veteran
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:36 pm
Posts: 3900
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 Re: Weekend Actuals As expected, Taken 2 took the top spot but easily had the best opening since The Dark Knight Rises. Pitch Perfect did very well while Frankenweenie flopped. Meanwhile, Hotel Transylvania and Looper saw solid drops especially the latter considering the competition.
Fox’s PG-13 action sequel, Taken 2 easily opened at #1 with an enormous $49.5M. At 3,661 theaters, the Liam Neeson action starrer averaged a tremendous $13,525 per location. By comparison, the thriller doubled its predecessor ($24.7M/$145M total) when it premiered on Super Bowl weekend back in 2009. This marks as Neeson’s third #1 hit in a row in a leading actor.52% of the audience skewed male while the film skewed older as 56% represented the audience of over 25. This performance behaved more like a summer film as many action films tend to flop in the month where most horror films and sometimes adult-oriented films succeed. In fact, for the second weekend in a row, we rarely see $40M+ openers back-to-back especially in the fall. Despite the negative reviews, it earned a B+ in CinemaScore and 76% of Flixster users recommending it. It will take a big miracle to even reach its predecessor, let alone adjusted ($162m) domestically. However, it should repeat #1 until Paranormal Activity 4 comes out. Plus, Fox reported the budget at only $45M, and should see a solid total of $120 million with $200M+ overseas. The senior citizen of “Channing Tatum” = Liam Neeson!
After breaking records last weekend, Sony’s $85M Hotel Transylvania saw a decline of a mere 36.4% to $27M boosting its total to a strong $76.7M in only 10 days. Its second weekend alone more than doubled its new competition (Frankenweenie)’s first weekend and should easily pass $100 million next weekend, the first film to achieve that mark in 2 months. The theme of Halloween will definitely help its legs especially with excellent WOM and the primary choice for families for the rest of the month. Based on this, a total in the $150 million range seems probable for the $85M PG-rated animated adventure.
Universal’s female-oriented comedy, “Pitch Perfect” expanded to 2,770 venues and premiered in third place with $14.8M after doing well in 6th place last weekend in limited release averaging a healthy $5,360 with holdover locations retaining an impressive 74% of its audience from last weekend. Retaining that much shows that not only that the outstanding WOM (86% of Flixster users recommending it) has already spread well but also the studio’s strategy going on limb to go limited before going wide paid off. A whopping 81% of the audience skewed female, moviegoers under the age of 30 represented the audience, and the audience of younger than 25 resembled 55% of the audience, which brought in a variety of age groups such as teens and young adults. Now, it has brought in $21.7M which already includes its limited release grosses. With zero competition targeting females until Twilight comes out, it looks headed for a total in the north of $65 million.
Fourth place definitely does not go to Frankenweenie. It goes to last weekend’s surprise hit, Sony’s universally-acclaimed sci-fi thriller, Looper that enjoyed a great hold of 41.8% despite strong competition with a second weekend of $12.1M giving it $40.2M in ten days. Source Code, a similar movie to it had an identical drop of 41.6% to $8.7M with $28.2M in the same pace on its way to $54.7M. With similar WOM but better Flixster ratings (90% vs. 81%), it should finish with at least $70 million against a $30 million budget. Add in $100 million + overseas and Sony has a success.
Disney’s Frankenweenie directed by Tim Burton sees his second disappointment in a row with $11.4M in 3,004 theaters. Averaging a poor $3,798 per theater, the $39M black and white 3D creepy cartoon failed to excite audiences and released right after last weekend’s family breakout, Transylvania. Despite a better studio, it fell 18.4% below Focus’ ParaNorman ($14.1M/$55M+) and would need a miracle to even reach that total. However, it received excellent reviews and good WOM (B+ in CinemaScore and 83% of Flixster users recommending it) and its domestic total should come in around its budget.
September 21 (excluding Dredd)’s releases continue to perform close together but End of Watch ($4M/48.8% drop/$32.8M total/$42M projected final total) should easily win out of Trouble with the Curve ($3.8M/$29.7M total/$38M projected final total) and House at the End of the Street ($3.76M/$27.6M/$34M projected final total). For End of Watch, it did very well given that it had poor tracking. The excellent reviews and the presence of Jake Gyllenhaal (Source Code) must have propelled to number one. As for Trouble with the Curve, it should have done better given the star power of Clint Eastwood but the bad reviews hurt its chances of mimicking Moneyball’s success. Plus, baseball movies do horrible overseas, which will makes its performance even worse. As for House at the End of the Street, it could have done better consider Jennifer Lawrence from the Hunger Games’ presence but the performance represents as “profitable but not a blockbuster”.
For the second week in a row, Weinstein’s critically-acclaimed drama, “The Master” enjoyed the smallest decline in the top ten with a 30.6% drop to $1.9M. However, it only gives it a total of $12.3M and compared to its limited release opening, it failed to connect with mainstream audiences (84% Fresh with critics on RT but only 62% of Flixster users recommending it). With the film dying out, it will barely make more than half of its $35M budget, which marks it as Amy Adams’ 2nd disappointment in a row along with “Curve”.
Disney’s re-release Finding Nemo 3D rounded out the top ten. Spending $5M to convert in 3D, it suffered the worst decline in the top ten with a 59.8% drop with $1.62M and already has $39M in the bank on its way to a final total of $41 million.
For interest, Summit’s The Perks of Being a Wallflower expanded to 221 locations and did $1.57M for an average of a solid $7,088 per venue (only lost 34.5% of its PTA from last weekend) raising its total to $3.3M. With the movie seem to live up to the WOM and reviews (85% Fresh, 94% of Flixster users recommending it, and an A CinemaScore), it could finish in the range of $25 million.
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