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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Sat Sep 22, 2012 12:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Next movie to break out or overperform? |
Ever since the Aurora shooting and TDKR's release not a single movie overperformed at the box-office. At best we got expected average results, several films did below expectations however. Only one August release wound up crossing $100 million (The Bourne Legacy) and let's face it, even its performance wasn't that much to write home about. Now we've got another weekend with four potent wide openers of which probably none will make $51 million over the weekend or $50 million in total. Honestly, the last movie that really overperformed/positively surprised me was the Ted/Magic Mike combo. In June! After that, everything either did as expected or disappointed. Maayyybe The Odd Life of Timothy Green to an extent as well, albeit on a small scale. Hell, even Hope Springs, the well-reviewed Meryl Streep film that had little direct competition isn't doing anywhere close to her other recent hits like Julie & Julia or It's Complicated. So what's the next film you expect ton finally break the trend and really overperform? I'm afraid we might not see anything until November. Sure, Taken 2 will do well, but even in its case I don't see anything higher than $35-45 million which I wouldn't call overperforming. Maybe Argo if marketed well, but at the moment I see it pulling The Town-numbers. I think Wreck-It Ralph could break out with a $65+ million opening, though. |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Sat Sep 22, 2012 12:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Next movie to break out or overperform? |
Looper has a chance. They've done a great job with the 30 second tv spots, clearly explaining what the movie is about. Original movies are scary though. So thats why I say Taken 2 wil bust out with $50M+. Liam Neeson returning to his now iconic role will bring people out. |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Sun Sep 23, 2012 1:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Next movie to break out or overperform? |
Well, I guess Taken 2, but that's not really unexpected. |
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| Author: | David [ Sun Sep 23, 2012 1:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Next movie to break out or overperform? |
Part of me believes Frankenweenie might explode, but Hotel Transylvania playing the same card (however more crudely) seven days before is troubling. |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Sun Sep 23, 2012 1:38 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Next movie to break out or overperform? |
Yeah, they're too close together. And Frankenweenie not being in color could turn some off. I really want to see it though and hope it does well. |
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| Author: | O [ Sun Sep 23, 2012 3:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Next movie to break out or overperform? |
Since the first weekend of May, perhaps the only overperformers I'd consider: Madagascar 3 Ted Magic Mike I expect Taken 2 will be the first film to overperform, though expectations are already at $50 m +... Strange how bad the box office has been post Quarter 1 this year more or less, despite how good the year looked on paper. |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Sun Sep 23, 2012 7:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Next movie to break out or overperform? |
The Big 3 films kind of killed the BO for other films - look at the few weeks post Hunger Games, Avengers and TDKR. Offcourse, the shootings also seem to have hurt the BO and its still being felt. Add in terrible release date strategies and what should have been a lock for $11B yearly total is now looking unlikely. |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Sun Sep 23, 2012 7:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Next movie to break out or overperform? |
I think Argo has a chance of over-performing if it does above $75m. Taken 2 will probably slightly disappoint but I guess if it does over $100m it will overperform. |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Sun Sep 23, 2012 8:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Next movie to break out or overperform? |
I wouldn't say 100 Million for Taken 2 is over-performing. I'd say it's expected. |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Sun Sep 23, 2012 10:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Next movie to break out or overperform? |
Anything over the first Taken would be over-performing. |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Mon Sep 24, 2012 4:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Next movie to break out or overperform? |
Having seen the film, I don't see it outperforming the first movie... |
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| Author: | Gopher [ Mon Sep 24, 2012 6:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Next movie to break out or overperform? |
I think Looper will break out and take some of Taken 2's buzz away. |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Mon Sep 24, 2012 9:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Next movie to break out or overperform? |
I can see Taken opening sub $30m. |
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| Author: | Excel [ Mon Sep 24, 2012 9:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Next movie to break out or overperform? |
Taken 2 will be boom or bust. I see Argo doing really well too, like 35 million +. |
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| Author: | David [ Mon Sep 24, 2012 9:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Next movie to break out or overperform? |
Argo will have strong legs, but I doubt it's huge out of the gate. |
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| Author: | Libs [ Mon Sep 24, 2012 9:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Next movie to break out or overperform? |
I could see a The Town or The Departed-esque opening for Argo if it picks up enough buzz in the next couple of weeks. |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Mon Sep 24, 2012 10:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Next movie to break out or overperform? |
Dr. Lecter wrote: Having seen the film, I don't see it outperforming the first movie... Was it bad? It looks like such a total rehash of the first film. I'm wondering if audiences will fall for it. Excel wrote: I see Argo doing really well too, like 35 million +. No way it opens that high. |
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| Author: | Mau [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 12:59 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Next movie to break out or overperform? |
Taken 2 taking the october OW record. |
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| Author: | Excel [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 10:33 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Next movie to break out or overperform? |
I think people are under estimating Afflecks drawing power. He has a big fanbase pre 2003 meltdown, and The Town was a biiig hit on DvD. Argo is getting a ton of advertising, and the ads look pretty good. I'd be surprised at a sub 30 million opening weekend, myself. |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 2:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Next movie to break out or overperform? |
I loved Gone Baby Gone and The Town, but I really have no interest in Argo personally. I don't think it has the level of appeal that The Town did. |
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| Author: | i.hope [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 10:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Next movie to break out or overperform? |
Argo reminds me of Syriana and Blood Diamond. It should do something along the same lines as those movies, i.e ($11 - 15 million OW). |
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| Author: | bl1222 [ Wed Sep 26, 2012 6:56 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Next movie to break out or overperform? |
Argo will open between Syriana and The Town but have ridiculously great legs if it lives up to the positive early reviews. |
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| Author: | BJ [ Wed Sep 26, 2012 11:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Next movie to break out or overperform? |
fingers crossed for looper |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Thu Sep 27, 2012 9:21 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Next movie to break out or overperform? |
Looper deserves to break-out. Its too damn good. |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Thu Sep 27, 2012 12:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Next movie to break out or overperform? |
If Looper crosses an $85 million total somehow, I'll call this overperforming. |
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