KJ's Late 2012 Box Office Contest - Planning Thread

For now, this is just a thread for ideas and thoughts on what we should predict for the box office contest on the last few months of 2012.

My plan is to have the game span movies released between September 28th, 2012 (Looper/Hotel Transylvania weekend) to December 26th, 2012 (Django Unchained/The Great Gatsby weekend).

It'll be interesting to see how the forum's predictions for the holiday seasons pan out as we'll be predicting them earlier than normal. (The last game is usually only for Nov and Dec.) I should have the game by late August, with the deadline being September 27th.

Locks to predict:
Django Unchained
Frankenweenie
Hotel Transylvania
Les Miserables
Looper
Paranormal Activity 4
Rise of the Guardians
Skyfall
Taken 2
The Great Gatsby
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part II
Wreck-It Ralph

That's 13 set movies, which leaves room for 12 more which I will include in a poll:

Alex Cross - A detective is told that a member of his family has been murdered. He vows to track down the killer.
Director: Rob Cohen
Stars: Tyler Perry, Matthew Fox and Rachel Nichols

Anna Karenina - Set in late-19th-century Russia high-society, the aristocrat Anna Karenina enters into a life-changing affair with the affluent Count Vronsky
Director: Joe Wright
Stars: Keira Knightley, Jude Law and Aaron Johnson

Argo - As the Iranian revolution reaches a boiling point, a CIA 'exfiltration' specialist concocts a risky plan to free six Americans who have found shelter at the home of the Canadian ambassador.
Director: Ben Affleck
Stars: Ben Affleck, Bryan Cranston and John Goodman

Cloud Atlas - An exploration of how the actions of individual lives impact one another in the past, present and future, as one soul is shaped from a killer into a hero, and an act of kindness ripples across centuries to inspire a revolution.
Directors: Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski
Stars: Tom Hanks, Halle Berry and Hugh Grant

Flight - An airline pilot saves a flight from crashing, but an investigation into the malfunctions reveals something troubling.
Director: Robert Zemeckis
Stars: Denzel Washington, Melissa Leo and Don Cheadle

Gambit - An art curator decides to seek revenge on his abusive boss by conning him into buying a fake Monet, but his plan requires the help of an eccentric and unpredictable Texas rodeo queen.
Director: Michael Hoffman
Stars: Colin Firth, Cameron Diaz and Alan Rickman

Here Comes the Boom - A high school biology teacher looks to become a successful mixed-martial arts fighter in an effort to raise money to prevent extra-curricular activities from being axed at his cash-strapped school.
Director: Frank Coraci
Stars: Kevin James, Salma Hayek and Henry Winkler

Jack Reacher - A homicide investigator digs deeper into a case involving a trained military sniper who shot five random victims. Based on a book in Lee Child's crime series.
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Stars: Tom Cruise, Rosamund Pike and Robert Duvall

Life of Pi - The story of an Indian boy named Pi, a zookeeper's son who finds himself in the company of a hyena, zebra, orangutan, and a Bengal tiger after a shipwreck sets them adrift in the Pacific Ocean.
Director: Ang Lee
Stars: Suraj Sharma, Irrfan Khan and Adil Hussain

Monsters Inc (in 3D) - Monsters generate their city's power by scaring children, but they are terribly afraid themselves of being contaminated by children, so when one enters Monstropolis, top scarer Sulley finds his world disrupted.
Directors: Pete Docter, David Silverman
Stars: Billy Crystal, John Goodman and Mary Gibbs

Parental Guidance - When his daughter goes away for work, a grandfather finds himself having to take care of his three grandkids using 21st century methods -- though he soon resorts to an old-school style of parenting.
Director: Andy Fickman
Stars: Billy Crystal, Bette Midler and Marisa Tomei

Playing for Keeps - A former professional athlete with a weak past tries to redeem himself by coaching his son's soccer team, only to find himself unable to resist when in scoring position with his players' restless and gorgeous moms.
Director: Gabriele Muccino
Stars: Gerard Butler, Jessica Biel and Dennis Quaid

Red Dawn - A group of teenagers look to save their town from an invasion of North Korean soldiers.
Director: Dan Bradley
Stars: Chris Hemsworth, Isabel Lucas and Josh Hutcherson

Silent Hill: Revelation 3D - When her father disappears, Heather Mason is drawn into a strange and terrifying alternate reality that holds answers to the horrific nightmares that have plagued her since childhood.
Director: Michael J. Bassett
Stars: Adelaide Clemens, Sean Bean and Radha Mitchell

The Big Wedding - A long-divorced couple fakes being married as their family unites for a wedding.
Director: Justin Zackham
Stars: Robert De Niro, Diane Keaton and Katherine Heigl

The Guilt Trip - An inventor and his mom hit the road together so he can sell his latest invention.
Director: Anne Fletcher
Stars: Seth Rogen, Barbra Streisand and Adam Scott

The Man with the Iron Fists - In feudal China, a blacksmith who makes weapons for a small village is put in the position where he must defend himself and his fellow villagers.
Director: RZA
Stars: Russell Crowe, Cung Le and Lucy Liu

The Master - A 1950s-set drama centered on the relationship between a charismatic intellectual known as "the Master" whose faith-based organization begins to catch on in America, and a young drifter who becomes his right-hand man.
Director: Paul Thomas Anderson
Stars: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Joaquin Phoenix and Amy Adams

This is 40 - A look at the lives of Pete and Debbie a few years after the events of Knocked Up.
Director: Judd Apatow
Stars: Paul Rudd, Leslie Mann and Jason Segel

I'm sure I missed some good ones as the poll has a limit of 20 options, so if you vote for "Other," please specify in a post!

Also, if you have any ideas for potential box office questions with great match-ups or potentially divisive answers, please post as well!

Fun Size

Other: Sinister, Won't Back Down

Casey, Lincoln should be a lock to predict.

I voted for:

Anna Karenina
Argo
Cloud Atlas
Flight
Jack Reacher
Life of Pi
The Man with the Iron Fists
The Master
and Other: Seven Psychopaths

Random ideas for questions:

Ben Affleck's current directorial average (Gone Baby Gone, The Town) is 56 million. Will Argo gross more or less than this?

Which total will be larger: Flight + Jack Reacher or Skyfall?

Which total will be larger: Frankenweenie + Monsters, Inc. 3-D or Rise of the Guardians?

Which will open higher on Christmas Day: Django Unchained or The Great Gatsby?

Will Zero Dark Thirty finish with at least five times (85 million) The Hurt Locker's domestic total?

Red Dawn is never coming out, so predicting it is pointless.

I voted for Argo, Cloud Atlas, Flight, Here Comes The Boom, Jack Reacher, Life of Pi, The Man With The Iron Fists, The Master and This Is Forty. Would also add Bigelow's movie if it comes out.

I'd also beware predicting The Guilt Trip. No trailer yet, and it's hardly an Oscar contender. I could see it being pushed to February or March of next year.

I agree. Releasing a Seth Rogen movie against a Judd Apatow movie never seemed like a good idea.

Is this for sure then? I only remember seeing a promo pic for it, but no trailer yet. I could see this being delayed sadly due to Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter's marketing being fresh in audience's mind.

With such an impressive cast and director as well as great potential, I'm a little surprised we haven't seen more from it.

Agreed on Red Dawn and The Guilt Trip. Too risky to predict.

They just set a release date a few days ago.

I doubt they would delay it a full year. It would destroy the film's reputation.

I don't see Red Dawn being delayed again with hot stars like Hemsworth and Hutchinson.

I very, very badly want Anna Karenina included. Vote for it, people.

Flight, Cloud Atlas, Life of Pi should definitely be in.

Will they not move Argo into September since GS moved out?

Not excited for but Reacher, THis is 40, Here COmes the Boom seem like typical contenders.

Is that it? Seems like the rest don't have trailers dor are limited releases.

Suggestion questions:
Will Jack Reacher's total reach > or < than 40% of Mission Impossible 4's total?

I disagree with one of BK's points.

There shouldn't be any bias against limited releases, during this season in particular. Seven of the last ten Best Picture winners opened in select cities at first.

With films such as Anna Karenina and The Sessions, it's a roll of the dice. Maybe they become Oscar heavyweights and expand well, maybe they don't. This injects a degree of enhanced suspense into the proceedings.

Oh, another note: The Master isn't eligible. It's coming out in September.

Killing Them Softly with Brad Pitt and James Gandolfini, however, is a viable choice.

Red Dawn is coming out in Nov. the teaser for the trailer is online it was on entertainment tonight.!