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 Which movie will next make into Top 30 Adjusted Domestic? 
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Which movie will next make into Top 30 Adjusted Domestic?
With summer at the end and all the biggies out of the gate I don't see any breakout performance that could top Harry Potter for the yearly crown. This also means that none of the movies will enter Top 100 for inflation adjusted number, the very first since 1998 when Saving Private Ryan topped with $216.5m and all this with 3D boost. (While it is highly unlikely but there is a chance that Deathly Hallows makes $381m and takes out Toy Story from #100).

I think as the years pass these records will have sort of immortality unless something really lifts BO admissions. After 12 years in 21st Century (considering 2000 as well) we have just 2 movies in Top 30, of that one had HUGE 3D Boost and the other one just barely made Top 30.

I am just posting some adjusted totals (I know these might not be accurate but they should be correct for 2000-2011).

RankMovie NameAdjusted GrossUnadjusted GrossRelease Year
1Gone with the Wind$1,610,295,700$198,676,4591939
2Star Wars$1,419,613,200$460,998,0071977
3The Sound of Music$1,135,050,500$158,671,3681965
4E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial $1,130,579,000$435,110,5541982
5The Ten Commandments$1,044,070,000$65,500,0001956
6Titanic$1,022,916,700$600,788,1881997
7Jaws $1,020,788,200$260,000,0001975
8Doctor Zhivago$989,359,600$111,721,9101965
9The Exorcist$881,232,300$232,671,0111973
10Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs$868,730,000$184,925,4861937
11101 Dalmatians$796,340,500$144,880,0141961
12The Empire Strikes Back$782,499,700$290,475,0671980
13Ben-Hur$781,060,000$74,000,0001959
14Avatar$775,124,500$760,507,6252009
15Return of the Jedi$749,653,500$309,306,1771983
16The Sting $710,468,600$156,000,0001973
17Raiders of the Lost Ark$702,490,600$242,374,4541981
18Jurassic Park $687,060,600$357,067,9471993
19The Graduate$682,004,000$104,901,8391967
20Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace$676,061,700$431,088,3011999
21Fantasia$661,856,500$76,408,0971941
22The Godfather$629,012,900$134,966,4111972
23Forrest Gump$626,008,500$329,694,4991994
24Mary Poppins$623,109,100$102,272,7271964
25The Lion King$615,537,400$328,541,7761994
26Grease$613,066,400$188,389,8881978
27Thunderball$596,156,000$63,595,6581965
28The Dark Knight$592,028,200$533,345,3582008
29The Jungle Book$587,228,900$141,843,6121967
30Sleeping Beauty$579,228,200$51,600,0001959
This table brought to you by Excel2BB Converter. Created by Krem for World of KJ

Other movies in Top 100 from 2000-2011
RankMovie NameAdjusted GrossUnadjusted GrossRelease Year
31Shrek 2$566,275,900$441,226,2472004
35Spider-Man$553,793,400$403,706,3752002
45Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest$515,088,100$423,315,8122006
51The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King$490,459,000$377,027,3252003
53Spider-Man 2$479,465,200$373,585,8252004
57The Passion of the Christ$475,847,600$370,782,9302004
58Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith$472,816,900$380,270,5772005
60The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers$459,314,400$341,786,7582002
65Finding Nemo$449,009,700$339,714,9782003
67Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone$445,626,500$317,575,5502001
75The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring$435,990,300$314,776,1702001
79Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen$429,590,400$402,111,8702009
85Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones$426,143,700$310,676,7402002
91Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl$403,671,700$305,413,9182003
96Spider-Man 3$389,846,900$336,530,3032007
99How the Grinch Stole Christmas$383,411,400$260,044,8252000
This table brought to you by Excel2BB Converter. Created by Krem for World of KJ

Which movie do you think will next be in the Top 30?


Mon Aug 15, 2011 4:07 pm
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Deshi Basara
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Post Re: Which movie will next make into Top 30 Adjusted Domestic
Crazily, there will come a time when even the top 30 is immortal. This clear fact of a cutoff for not being able to make the top n beyond a given year has made me distance myself from the adjusted chart more and more over the years.

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Mon Aug 15, 2011 4:25 pm
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Post Re: Which movie will next make into Top 30 Adjusted Domestic
Proud Ryu wrote:
Crazily, there will come a time when even the top 30 is immortal. This clear fact of a cutoff for not being able to make the top n beyond a given year has made me distance myself from the adjusted chart more and more over the years.

Inflation's a bitch!

Media dilution's a prick!


Mon Aug 15, 2011 5:42 pm
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Post Re: Which movie will next make into Top 30 Adjusted Domestic
Bradley has a big dick. Or so I hear.

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Mon Aug 15, 2011 5:45 pm
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Post Re: Which movie will next make into Top 30 Adjusted Domestic
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Mon Aug 15, 2011 6:18 pm
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Post Re: Which movie will next make into Top 30 Adjusted Domestic
Ah that's the table I was looking for, not sure how to incorporate it though. Is it easy?

Also, I am of the belief that anything more than +/- 10 years is incomparable.

It is easy to say that movies back in the 30s/40s/50s etc won't make the same if they were released today but also a lot of things have changed since the 80s and 90s. Not to mention that with technology developing at an increasing pace (sort of) it is a little hard to compare within the same decade but that's what I think is the maximum parameters.

Maybe +/- 5 years is better. So if we're looking at this year's Deathly Hallows 2 winner which according to Gitesh has sold half the amount of tix as Jurassic Park in '93, it would have sold 43.1m so far. That's still below all SMs/LOTRs, three Shreks and MR from my own comparison thread.

Given through my calcs that if Potter's avg. price is $8.29, it is 32c higher than the current average of $7.97. If we average those we get $7.65 as the 2D price. Thus if Potter sold another $20m worth of tickets it would put it at around 45.7m tickets just slightly below Shrek, STT, MR and SM3.

This means that using that ticket sales, it would be beaten by the following this decade:
2001- Potter 1, FOTR, Shrek
2002- SM, TTT, AOTC
2003- ROTK, FN, COTBP, TMR
2004- Shrek 2, SM2, Passion
2005- ROTS
2006- DMC
2007- SM3, STT, Transformers
2008- TDK
2009- Avatar, ROTF
2010- TS3

So, so far, in its comparable decade, Potter 8 would place 23rd place adjusted. Not too shabby I suppose all things considered. In a sense though, it is getting bloody hard to sell a lot of tix. Next year should be the litmus test with Hobbit and TDKR and Avengers/TASM representing some of the franchises on this list.

Part of me thinks the climate has changed once more, no thanks to the shitty economy. One year probably helps the box office as it is the cheapest alternative, but it's been what 3 years? People are just keeping money or they don't have any.

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Mon Aug 15, 2011 11:22 pm
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Post Re: Which movie will next make into Top 30 Adjusted Domestic
BK wrote:
Ah that's the table I was looking for, not sure how to incorporate it though. Is it easy?

Yes BK there is an Excel sheet that you have to download and then use the Macro. It is pretty easy though it is an extra effort if you have bold the text. Here is the link that I downloaded the tool from. Not sure if this is the latest one

download.php?id=2


Tue Aug 16, 2011 12:36 am
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Post Re: Which movie will next make into Top 30 Adjusted Domestic
Magnus wrote:
Only possible candidates in the near-future is TDKR and Avatar 2. Both of which will probably miss it.

That is where you are mistaken, the only foreseeable candidates maybe. But who knows what random original film in the next few years could catch the hearts of everyone.

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Malcolm wrote:
You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself.

Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.


Tue Aug 16, 2011 12:46 am
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Post Re: Which movie will next make into Top 30 Adjusted Domestic
BK wrote:
So if we're looking at this year's Deathly Hallows 2 winner which according to Gitesh has sold half the amount of tix as Jurassic Park in '93...

Number of tickets sold is the one true indicator of a film's adjusted popularity.


Tue Aug 16, 2011 6:05 am
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Post Re: Which movie will next make into Top 30 Adjusted Domestic
I don't think tickets sold, and even adjustion for inflastion, is a fair barometer for a film's popularity if only because people watch a film in so many diverse ways nowadays. I'm not saying that Avatar should be considered the unambiguous biggest movie ever, but neither should Gone with the Wind. Films can't be re-released over and over again like they used to be, and couldn't inflation after 1939 skew the perception of how many tickets were actually sold?


Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:30 am
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Deshi Basara
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Post Re: Which movie will next make into Top 30 Adjusted Domestic
"Popularity" can't really even be discussed in terms of box office no matter how well we adjust the box office. We could name a dozen adjustment factors other than ticket price, but even if we theoretically got it just right, we know that just because someone bought a ticket for the theater didn't mean they like the film.

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Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:36 am
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Post Re: Which movie will next make into Top 30 Adjusted Domestic
Magnus wrote:
Michael A wrote:
Magnus wrote:
Only possible candidates in the near-future is TDKR and Avatar 2. Both of which will probably miss it.

That is where you are mistaken, the only foreseeable candidates maybe. But who knows what random original film in the next few years could catch the hearts of everyone.


There is not a single original film with a big budget in development so I doubt it'll happen in the near-future (i.e. next 4 years).

Keep in mind that films like Avatar and Titanic were HUGE projects. Sure, they were "original" but it wasn't like they were just some random picture. Both of them took a long time to get developed. We would be aware of some sort of project like that right now if it was to come out in the near-future.

So once again, it is you who is mistaken.

Yeah... that's actually totally true, so...

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Mr. R wrote:
Malcolm wrote:
You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself.

Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.


Tue Aug 16, 2011 12:37 pm
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