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Can FD5 be another RE4 in OS markets?
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=64601		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Fri Aug 12, 2011 11:33 am ]
Post subject:  Can FD5 be another RE4 in OS markets?
Both FD and RE have been long running franchises have similar demo, though none of them was a huge breakout in OS till the last RE came along and surpassed all the expectations last year.

Here are some of the OS grosses for comparison
Final Destination (2000) - $59,549,147
Final Destination 2 (2003) - $43,465,191 (-27%)
Final Destination 3 (2006) - $63,621,107 (+46.5%)
The Final Destination (2009)- $119,689,439 (+88%)

Resident Evil (2002)- $62,321,369
Resident Evil: Apocalypse (2004) - $78,193,382 (+25%)
Resident Evil: Extinction (2007) - $97,069,154 (+24%)
Resident Evil: Afterlife (2010) - $236,093,097 (+144%)

It is obvious that RE is much bigger in OS markets than FD, and it was constantly increasing with inflation and growth of OS markets unless last year RE4 blasted all expectations and made $236m in OS.
FD on the other hand has not so good record in OS. FD2 actually decreased in OS after which they started increasing and last one saw a big increase and crossed $100m OS mark in the process.

Now given the record I don't FD5 increasing as big as RE4's 144% but it can still surprise, if it increases another 88% it should cross $220m OS which would be huge for it. While I don't see that happening specially since the competition is huge, but I can see another 20% increase and get close to $150m OS total.
Author:  The Dark Shape [ Fri Aug 12, 2011 11:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Can FD5 be another RE4 in OS markets?
I think FD4, with its $120m, qualifies as a pretty big OS breakout.
Author:  Bluebomb [ Fri Aug 12, 2011 12:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Can FD5 be another RE4 in OS markets?
Per IMDB (FD5)

Lithuania 12 August 2011
Poland 12 August 2011
Hong Kong 18 August 2011
Indonesia 19 August 2011
Germany 25 August 2011
Malaysia 25 August 2011
Netherlands 25 August 2011
Russia 25 August 2011
Singapore 25 August 2011
Thailand 25 August 2011
Ireland 26 August 2011
UK 26 August 2011
France 31 August 2011
Armenia 1 September 2011
Portugal 1 September 2011
Colombia 2 September 2011
Greece 8 September 2011
Hungary 8 September 2011
Estonia 9 September 2011
Sweden 9 September 2011
Turkey 9 September 2011
Italy 16 September 2011
Finland 23 September 2011
Japan 1 October 2011
Australia 13 October 2011

Short answer: No.

Long answer: Final Destination is trying to break into the summer market with about half the territories releasing in August. Unfortunately, it will go up against some big releases. I don't think it will win in any of the Asian markets as it will go up against something (whether it's an animated release or a sequel). Russia/UK/France's schedules look pretty good so the big territories could very well see increases. It is going up against Cowboys & Aliens in Germany.

I just took a peek at some of the markets it is releasing in September/October and for the most part, the schedules there look pretty empty so from my observations, it seems like releasing this in August was a bad idea even with the summer weekdays. They should have stuck with a September/October release as those are usually the months for horror movies.

Overall, I think that FD5 will still increase from the last sequel although not as much % or gross wise as Resident Evil: Afterlife did since the 88% increase from FD3-FD4 already covered the 3D surcharge.
Author:  BK [ Fri Aug 12, 2011 12:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Can FD5 be another RE4 in OS markets?
Is it a popular franchise?

I don't think OS audiences are very perceptive in their horror tastes and are basically PG-13 slash sheep and this is in 3D.

I don't want it to do well, but it can't hurt me, and this is supposed to be better than the last.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Fri Aug 12, 2011 12:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Can FD5 be another RE4 in OS markets?
I totally agree the release date is pretty bad, not only will it contend with backlog of movies created by HP and TF3, but it will also compete with upcoming teen movies (releasing in August), some of them have horror genre as the backdrop. And yes the 3D boost should not be as big for this one that is why I am predicting about 20% increase from the last entry.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Fri Aug 12, 2011 12:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Can FD5 be another RE4 in OS markets?
The Dark Shape wrote:
I think FD4, with its $120m, qualifies as a pretty big OS breakout.


I think it could be called a bigger total but not a big breakout, FD4 had 3D which was still big at that time and meant good legs since there weren't many 3D titles out I don't think it was a big breakout because but a bigger percentage increase.

If you look at RE4 it did have a 3D boost but the % boost that gives could not have accounted for such high increase. Also the run was pretty leggy and interesting.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Fri Aug 12, 2011 12:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Can FD5 be another RE4 in OS markets?
Jack Sparrow wrote:
I totally agree the release date is pretty bad, not only will it contend with backlog of movies created by HP and TF3, but it will also compete with upcoming teen movies (releasing in August), some of them have horror genre as the backdrop. And yes the 3D boost should not be as big for this one that is why I am predicting about 20% increase from the last entry.


I went back and saw that TFD had Ice Age and HP which were pretty big in OS and G.I Joe which was also okish in OS.

FD5 has TF3 and HP at the similar release dates, plus Apes, the only factor I see is C&A which I believe should be marginally higher than Ugly Truth so the release date isn't that bad. They are actually following the success of their last breakout, seems like August did work for FD movies, so yes there is still a chance for big breakout.
Author:  Bluebomb [ Fri Aug 12, 2011 1:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Can FD5 be another RE4 in OS markets?
The main difference is that FD4 was released at the beginning of September (only 6 markets in August) as opposed to middle-late August for FD5 (13 markets).

I think any male demographic movie (C&A/CA/Apes/Super 8/GL) will pose a threat to FD5.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Fri Aug 12, 2011 1:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Can FD5 be another RE4 in OS markets?
Apes, C&A are bigger threats, CA and Super 8 have already rolled out in more than 30 markets. I don't see how GL will be as big in its remaining markets. It is releasing in bigger markets by end of August as well.
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