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| August 12-14 Predictions http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=64559 |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Sat Aug 06, 2011 9:27 am ] |
| Post subject: | August 12-14 Predictions |
You know the drill |
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| Author: | Libs [ Sat Aug 06, 2011 9:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: August 12-14 Predictions |
Final Destination 5 - 25 The Help - 24 (5 days) 30 Minutes or Less - 14 Glee Live - 5 |
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| Author: | David [ Sat Aug 06, 2011 10:42 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: August 12-14 Predictions |
Final Destination 5 - 27 mil. 30 Minutes or Less - 23 The Help - 18 (5 day) Glee - 6 |
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| Author: | A. G. [ Sat Aug 06, 2011 11:01 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: August 12-14 Predictions |
It probably won't win the weekend due to the extra cash from 3D but I think 30 Minutes will surprise on the upside. It has something most comedies this year haven't had, a funny trailer. |
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| Author: | Libs [ Sat Aug 06, 2011 11:10 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: August 12-14 Predictions |
A. G. wrote: It probably won't win the weekend due to the extra cash from 3D but I think 30 Minutes will surprise on the upside. It has something most comedies this year haven't had, a funny trailer. Personally, I think it looks quite funny but will be hurt by so many R-rated comedies this summer. I think at least part of The Change-Up's underperformance can be attributed to this too. I hope I'm wrong. I know everyone expects me to say this but I expect The Help to come in on the high side of expectations too. There's gonna be some fightin' if I see anyone predicting under $10M or something. And I'm expecting a RT score of at least 70-75% right now, probably higher. |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Sat Aug 06, 2011 12:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: August 12-14 Predictions |
From various accounts, The Help is an Oscar contender in certain categories, and I believe the film fills a market void, as we have seen only either action, R-rated comedy, or family films lately. $20m 5-day is certainly possible. |
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| Author: | Rolling Thunder [ Sat Aug 06, 2011 12:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: August 12-14 Predictions |
$10m is too low, but I do see The Help flopping. Take your best swing, Libs. |
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| Author: | Libs [ Sat Aug 06, 2011 1:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: August 12-14 Predictions |
Rolling Thunder wrote: $10m is too low, but I do see The Help flopping. Take your best swing, Libs. Well. Why, exactly, do you see it flopping? Are you aware of the book's incredible popularity? It is certainly just as popular a novel as Eat Pray Love and The Time Traveler's Wife were (it's #1 on Amazon right now and has been near the top for months), and this movie will have significantly better reviews. It also appeals to an ethnically diverse audience. |
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| Author: | 2001 [ Sat Aug 06, 2011 1:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: August 12-14 Predictions |
FD5 - 30m Apes - 55% drop |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Sat Aug 06, 2011 1:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: August 12-14 Predictions |
Will be a 3-way race for #1. Apes - -49% FD5 - $25M 30 Minutes or Less - $24M The Help - something 30 Minutes has a huge premise and an America that is currently not afraid of terrorism. I'd love to see it take #1, but that is unlikely with the very consistent Final Destination franchise along with a big second week from Apes. |
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| Author: | curtis20 [ Sat Aug 06, 2011 1:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: August 12-14 Predictions |
Somehing tells me The Help will be a huge break out. Reviews are looking great and the Book Has a huge fanbase. It should see some great legs if it keeps getting raves. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sat Aug 06, 2011 3:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: August 12-14 Predictions |
Next weekend might become very interesting if FD5 underperforms by a margin say $25m-$27m, Apes has a very good hold say -48% for around $25m-$28m and then 30 minutes gets close for $24m-$26m. This could end up being another photo finish weekend, though I see FD5 winning in the end. The Help should do well for about $18m 5-day |
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| Author: | Rolling Thunder [ Sat Aug 06, 2011 4:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: August 12-14 Predictions |
Libs wrote: Rolling Thunder wrote: $10m is too low, but I do see The Help flopping. Take your best swing, Libs. Well. Why, exactly, do you see it flopping? Are you aware of the book's incredible popularity? It is certainly just as popular a novel as Eat Pray Love and The Time Traveler's Wife were (it's #1 on Amazon right now and has been near the top for months), and this movie will have significantly better reviews. It also appeals to an ethnically diverse audience. I'm obviously not the target demo and am probably underestimating how the book will translate to ticket sales, but from the previews alone, it looks slow moving and boring. Do you think this is a great release date for it? |
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| Author: | Dil [ Sat Aug 06, 2011 5:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: August 12-14 Predictions |
Final Destination 5 - $27M 30 Minutes or Less - $16M The Help - $18M (5 day) Glee - $7M I can't see FD5 going under $25M and it definitely has alot of potential to even reach $30M if it can get a respectable surge from IMAX 3D. I also want 30 Minutes Or Less to do more, but seeing how badly TCU is doing tells me R rated comedies are fading fast, but if more teens rush out to see it I could see it slightly overperforming. |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Sat Aug 06, 2011 8:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: August 12-14 Predictions |
Final Destination 5 - $23M 30 Minutes or Less - $17M The Help - $27M (5 day) Glee - $7M The Help will be big. It will skew female and older so hence why it hasnt registered so much here and on the general movie sites. 30 Mins could break-out but I think auds are comedy-ied out at this moment. I feel FD will be on the lower end of expectations. |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Sat Aug 06, 2011 9:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: August 12-14 Predictions |
I'm not really feeling 30 Minutes or Less. Thinking sub-$15m ATM. |
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| Author: | The Dark Shape [ Sat Aug 06, 2011 10:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: August 12-14 Predictions |
What is 30 Minutes or Less? I haven't so much as seen a trailer or TV spot. |
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| Author: | The Dark Shape [ Sat Aug 06, 2011 10:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: August 12-14 Predictions |
I admit I breeze out on ads, but I watch The Daily Show and Colbert Report every night and don't remember seeing one (and definitely not in theaters). |
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| Author: | Libs [ Sat Aug 06, 2011 10:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: August 12-14 Predictions |
Rolling Thunder wrote: Libs wrote: Rolling Thunder wrote: $10m is too low, but I do see The Help flopping. Take your best swing, Libs. Well. Why, exactly, do you see it flopping? Are you aware of the book's incredible popularity? It is certainly just as popular a novel as Eat Pray Love and The Time Traveler's Wife were (it's #1 on Amazon right now and has been near the top for months), and this movie will have significantly better reviews. It also appeals to an ethnically diverse audience. I'm obviously not the target demo and am probably underestimating how the book will translate to ticket sales, but from the previews alone, it looks slow moving and boring. Do you think this is a great release date for it? Yes, you are underestimating how the book will translate to ticket sales. Heh. The Help is a huge book...and I strongly believe a large African-American audience will come out for it. And the release date is fine. They opened it here because, as referenced earlier, Eat Pray Love and The Time Traveler's Wife both succeeded in this slot the past two years. |
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| Author: | The Dark Shape [ Sat Aug 06, 2011 10:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: August 12-14 Predictions |
Weren't Eat Pray Love and The Time Traveler's Wife both considered disappointments relative to expectations? I remember some fairly high OW predictions for both based on book popularity. |
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| Author: | Libs [ Sat Aug 06, 2011 10:52 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: August 12-14 Predictions |
The Dark Shape wrote: Weren't Eat Pray Love and The Time Traveler's Wife both considered disappointments relative to expectations? I remember some fairly high OW predictions for both based on book popularity. $80M and $63M aren't disappointments. At least in my book. Some people predicted higher than those totals but that shouldn't lessen the reality of how they actually performed. I just expect The Help to be one of these films labeled a "surprise female hit" by box office analysts at the trade magazines and such who forget women like to go see movies and stuff. What a concept. Also, as someone mentioned upthread, reviews/early word so far have been quite strong (at least that I've read), and Oscar buzz is definitely there for some of the actresses (Viola Davis, in particular). Also also, this was tracking earlier in the week: Quote: THE HELP, coming out on Wednesday 8/10, is tracking really well, especially for a movie suited more for Oscar season than blockbuster summer. 40% of moviegoers are definitely interested in seeing the Emma Stone/Viola Davis period piece, including 53% of women over 25 and 45% of women under 25. |
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| Author: | Chippy [ Sat Aug 06, 2011 11:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: August 12-14 Predictions |
They should make a movie about your book. And then we'll see what a disappointment really is! |
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| Author: | Libs [ Sat Aug 06, 2011 11:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: August 12-14 Predictions |
Chippy wrote: They should make a movie about your book. And then we'll see what a disappointment really is! I wish this made sense in any capacity. |
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| Author: | David [ Sat Aug 06, 2011 11:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: August 12-14 Predictions |
...has Libs written a book? |
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| Author: | Libs [ Sat Aug 06, 2011 11:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: August 12-14 Predictions |
Gunslinger wrote: ...has Libs written a book? I have not, thus the attempt at an insult makes little sense. |
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