The Dark Knight Rises OW Record Club Of The Storm Is Here
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
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 Re: The Dark Knight Rises $200+ million OW Club Biggestgeekever wrote: I can no longer follow this thread, so I'm going to make three statements:
1) The Dark Knight sold more tickets on OW than Spider-Man 3. This is a pure fact and will never change, ever.
2) There are more people willing to see a Batman film in theaters than there are for Harry Potter films. Even the final Potter could not sell more tickets on OW than The Dark Knight, and it came up well short of its total.
3) There is no historical precedent for a film coming off a $500+ million grosser with such incredible WOM. The closest thing you're going to get is Spider-Man 3 or else you have to go so far back that any comparison is null and void. _________________http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dmXF3CE04A This kills TDKR At the box office next summer.. Get used to this
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| Thu Jan 12, 2012 1:04 am |
 
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DP07
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises $200+ million OW Club Thegun wrote: Biggestgeekever wrote: Thegun wrote: That would require a 15% increase over Potter. That has never happened with films from year to year. The last film to do that was DMC over Spiderman. But that needed 4 years of inflation, a huge popularity increase, and a dead summer. TDK has reached its peak audience, much more competition, and less than a year of inflation.
I still think it should take the record though. But stay in the 4-8% increase that other films do when its a year later. 180 seems like the magic number for it, but I would not be surprised if it was less.
History will prevail again! Spider-Man increased 27% over Harry Potter 1 despite releasing just 6 months after... what's that about history prevailing again? Well when I've quoted history, I've never been wrong. If you want to really compare the marketplace from 10 years ago, whatever floats your boat. But since Lost World really started showing the explosion of opening weekends, here are the increases. Lost World 38% increase Potter 25.7% increase Spiderman 27% increase DMC 18% Spiderman 3- 11.4% TDK 4.8% Potter 6.7% There is a definite trend showing. The film marketplace just isn't the same it was even 5 years ago. Potter had a lot of momentum, inflation, and 3D going for yet. Yes this is the last Nolan Batman, but it would be hard to argue on the opening weekend perspective that TDKR is more hyped than the last Potter. With the way the industry is changing. late 90s being the amount of screens a film could be shown on, and with the last decade turning the film industry into a world wide success that it never saw before, sadly it seems like we are going to be past those huge increase periods. I think it makes more sense the other way. The record is soft. Therefore there is room to break it by quite a bit.
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| Thu Jan 12, 2012 1:14 am |
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Mannyisthebest
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises $200+ million OW Club TDK sold more tickets however the price increase from 2007 to 2008 was large so the difference is very small.
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| Thu Jan 12, 2012 8:11 am |
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Thegun
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises $200+ million OW Club Mannyisthebest wrote: Well the difference between Spiderman 3 and TDK is very small in the end.
In 2011 Dollars...
Spiderman 3 is 174.84 million
TDK is 175.62 million
TDK wins but in terms of ticket sales its close. Meaning on average, SM3 increases 5.93 million a year. TDK 5.73 a year. Why else would it only be 800k behind it now, if it wasn't gaining on it. Based on the evidence that is there, SM3 will overtake it eventually. The small increase of tickets sold over SM3 is smaller than the amount of inflation. _________________
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| Thu Jan 12, 2012 11:57 am |
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Nazgul9
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises $200+ million OW Club Is it just me or does Thegun make absolutely no sense? How is it possible for one inflation adjusted value to go up faster than another? Inflation affects everything the same.
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| Thu Jan 12, 2012 12:22 pm |
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Thegun
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises $200+ million OW Club Are you serious? It all depends on what the gross was. The inflation rate stays the same, I would have thought that was obvious. If everything increased the same amount, there would be no reason to even follow adjusted numbers.
Do you think Star Wars and Rocky V adjusted grosses increase the same amount each year? Let's go back to basic math. we'll use an inflation rate of 5%. Star Wars grossed 322 million. Rocky V 42 million. Using the % Star Wars would increase 16.1 million. Rocky V would increase 2.1 million.
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| Thu Jan 12, 2012 1:28 pm |
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zingy
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises $200+ million OW Club Thegun, do you realize that the gap between The Dark Knight and Spider-Man 3 is increasing every year when adjusted for inflation? When The Dark Knight opened in '08, Spider-Man 3's opening already adjusted to $157,705,900, a difference of $705,600. If you adjust for inflation each year since 2008, these are the differences in their grosses:
2008: $705,600
2009: $737,000
2010: $775,300
2011: $782,200
That's because, in the end, The Dark Knight sold more tickets. 22,062,900 vs. 21,964,600. If you adjust for inflation any year, TDK wins because it sold more. I think you're confused.
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| Thu Jan 12, 2012 1:52 pm |
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Nazgul9
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises $200+ million OW Club I'm talking in relative terms, the percentage increases a year is the same across the board. If $158,411,483 was more than $151,116,516 in 2008 dollars (that would be $157,705,900 for SP3 according to the post above me) it'll always be more, even in 100 years, SP3's opening will never overtake TDK's, adjusted. It's impossible.
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| Thu Jan 12, 2012 2:04 pm |
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Nazgul9
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises $200+ million OW Club zingy wrote: That's because, in the end, The Dark Knight sold more tickets. 22,062,900 vs. 21,964,600. Well, that's a whole other issue. We can't say that for sure, it depends on which movie had the pricier tickets on average (stuff like number of IMAX, matinee, kids tickets etc come into play). TDK seems to skew a little older and it sold more IMAX tickets for sure, my guess is SP3 actually sold more tickets on opening weekend. _________________
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| Thu Jan 12, 2012 2:30 pm |
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Nazgul9
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises $200+ million OW Club zingy wrote: Thegun, do you realize that the gap between The Dark Knight and Spider-Man 3 is increasing every year when adjusted for inflation? Which is only logical. Inflation also applies to the gap. _________________
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| Thu Jan 12, 2012 2:36 pm |
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trixster
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises $200+ million OW Club thegun never makes any sense.
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| Thu Jan 12, 2012 2:44 pm |
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Nazgul9
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises $200+ million OW Club Thegun wrote: Let's go back to basic math. we'll use an inflation rate of 5%. Star Wars grossed 322 million. Rocky V 42 million. Using the % Star Wars would increase 16.1 million. Rocky V would increase 2.1 million. Apparently you know your basic math. I dunno why you didn't apply it in the case of TDK and SP3. _________________
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| Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:04 pm |
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Thegun
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises $200+ million OW Club You guys are right, there is no way for it to overtake it unless there were more accurate breakdowns of ticket sales. I got confused with the yearly increase, and didn't take into account the year in between the two. I have a gap in my head. I did too many calculations in the last 10 posts. Apologies.
Back on point. I do think there is room for another 15+% increase out there, but I just don't see TDKR doing it. TDK like the original Batman was the game changer. TDK could barely increase, and we've seen Potter only increased with help. While I do think another 15%+ is out there someday, I just don't see enough in Batman's favor to do it. Like the others, something needs to change about the industry, or it needs to start a trend. There's no evidence to suggest either will happen by July.
Though I will admit, Trends don't start because someone can predict them. I'll just say 85 to 15 against.
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| Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:25 pm |
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zingy
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises $200+ million OW Club Two trends since '08: even bigger midnight openings and more gross from IMAX.
TDK opened in just 94 IMAX theaters and grossed $6.4m opening weekend - a record at the time. Today, I believe Deathly Hollows, Pt. 2 has the record at $15.5m from 274 screens (can't think of anything that would be higher) while M:I-4 opened in a record 300 IMAX screens in December. So there's obviously a lot more potential gross from IMAX. TDK also had the midnight record at the time ($18.5m) which has more than doubled since.
TDK's opening adjusts to $175m, and I think the increase in IMAX and midnights over the last four years, plus the general hype of this being the last Batman film (in this series, at least) can bring $25m more opening weekend.
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| Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:52 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises $200+ million OW Club TDKR also has "Nolan hype" going for it. He certainly wasn't as big of a name back in 2008.
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| Thu Jan 12, 2012 5:39 pm |
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Mannyisthebest
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises $200+ million OW Club ". 22,062,900 vs. 21,964,600" If it is that close, I think we can easily say Spider Man 3 sold more tickets or is at least tied as it had a bigger Saturday meaning more kids watched it and that TDK skewed older and TDK had a much bigger Imax opening. Spiderman 3 came up around 3.5 million behind on Sunday and around 3.7 ahead on Saturday. Anyways the conversation is pointless as TDK and Spider Man 3 are two of the most impressive openers ever for different reasons. TDK for setting the single day record, Sunday record and opening record. Spider Man 3 for its Opening weekend record and its Saturday record. Also talking about Saturday's, Spiderman 1 adjusted Saturday is just shy of 60 million. 
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| Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:11 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises $200+ million OW Club If TDKR has bigger midnights doesn't mean it will still have the same Saturday and Sunday holds, the more midnights does not mean more people coming to see the movie they are indicative of rush factor. Bigger Midnights would satisfy that many audience that would otherwise rushed over Saturday and Sunday. While this is the last movie I do consider that Ledger's death contributed a little to the OW of TDK (yes not hugely but atleast more than a couple of million Fri-Sat-Sun) which might play a little bit of factor this time.
I think the OW record is almost certain to fall but somewhere between $180m-$185m sounds about right, maybe even $190m.
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| Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:30 pm |
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Mannyisthebest
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises $200+ million OW Club However, the movie will likely be more frontloaded then TDK.
Meaning, the Saturday will just crack 50 million but Sunday should be the same low drop.
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| Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:48 pm |
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Rev
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises $200+ million OW Club 10 day record is $313m by TDK  TDKR will beat that by at least 47m OW 190m-205m midweek - 80-90m 2nd wknd 90-105m Total 360m-400m _________________ ''If Batman is the way the world sees America, Superman is the way America sees itself.” - Hans Zimmer
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| Thu Jan 12, 2012 8:50 pm |
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SquareMaster316
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises $200+ million OW Club The amount of tickets sold b/w SP3 and TDK OW's are strikingly similar with less than 100K tickets between them, but the legs are substantially different.
If you were to take the legs of TDK and use the multiplier against other recent Marvel films, Cap would have grossed 219M+ DOM, Thor 221M+, IM2 431M+
I simply don't see the Avengers beating out The Dark Knight Rises, let alone The Dark Knight. They would not only have to beat TDK's opening weekend, but have the same legs to top its DOM total. Even Iron Man 1 couldn't do that.
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| Thu Jan 12, 2012 9:10 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises $200+ million OW Club When was that in contention BTW? It is more than certain that it would not happen. I am not taking any names (cause I don't like feeding trolls) but you get the hint  _________________Movies 2012 - July
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| Thu Jan 12, 2012 9:51 pm |
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Mannyisthebest
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises $200+ million OW Club I think Avengers would be considered a big success if it repeats the performance of IM2 imo.
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| Thu Jan 12, 2012 9:51 pm |
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Magnus
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises $200+ million OW Club Mannyisthebest wrote: I think Avengers would be considered a big success if it repeats the performance of IM2 imo. If it does IM2 adjusted for 3D (which would be 350m+), then yeah it would be a big success. But I don't think a 310m-315m performance would be considered a "big" success. Key word big. _________________
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| Fri Jan 13, 2012 12:32 am |
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Biggestgeekever
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises $200+ million OW Club Entertainment Weekly scans I'm not sure if we have an official prediction thread yet, but I wouldn't mind if this one became that. It's gonna be a long 7 month wait anyway. 
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| Fri Jan 13, 2012 12:48 am |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises $200+ million OW Club SquareMaster316 wrote: The amount of tickets sold b/w SP3 and TDK OW's are strikingly similar with less than 100K tickets between them, but the legs are substantially different.
If you were to take the legs of TDK and use the multiplier against other recent Marvel films, Cap would have grossed 219M+ DOM, Thor 221M+, IM2 431M+
I simply don't see the Avengers beating out The Dark Knight Rises, let alone The Dark Knight. They would not only have to beat TDK's opening weekend, but have the same legs to top its DOM total. Even Iron Man 1 couldn't do that.  Yeah, Ok... Must I remind you about Ledgers death being the real sole reason why TDK did as well as it did??? You can deny this all you want, but once TDKR fails to match TDK domestic box office cause the villain sucks outside the fanbase, then you and all the other Batsuckers will have no other alternative but to accept this as being true.._________________http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dmXF3CE04A This kills TDKR At the box office next summer.. Get used to this
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| Fri Jan 13, 2012 6:40 am |
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