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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am Posts: 4556
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Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club
A. Sequels to greatly received animated films explode overseas and Up proved last year that Pixar + 3D can be huge. Up made 435m+ and I think TS3 can make 40% more.
B. HP7 will be a monster overseas but it will NOT increase in admissions domestically, so no ROTS numbers.
C. Toy Story 3 will simply be awesome.
Toy Story 3 - 1100m WW (500m/600m)
Harry Potter 7 Pt.I - 1090m WW (340m/750m)
Who's in?
Members: 1. 2001 2. Bluebomb 3. Biggestgeekever 4. Keyser Söze
Last edited by 2001 on Fri Jun 18, 2010 1:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:47 am |
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Bluebomb
Veteran
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 10:53 am Posts: 3007
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Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club
I'm in.
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Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:50 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club
Even if TS3 explodes overseas there is no chance that it will beat HP7.
HP has a huge rush factor and people will willfully throw to see this in 3D specially on the opening weekend and the coming 2 weeks. Thus I am adding a surcharge of about 20% The least OS that HP has done is 546m adding another 20% to this makes it 655m. The last movie did 632 that makes 20% to be 758.4 The best HP movie has made 657 that equals 788m.
TS3 is over-predicted at 500m domestically and there is also a chance that TS3 does not do that well overseas even with Pixar brand attached to it. I see it somewhere at 500m OS at this time.
TS3 - 420/490 - 910m (somewhere between 13-20 in WW total) HP7 - 350/750m - 1.1B (somewhere between 2-6 in WW total)
OUT
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Thu Jun 17, 2010 11:04 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25020 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club
potter will make 1b internationally.
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Thu Jun 17, 2010 1:05 pm |
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Biggestgeekever
I heet the canadian!
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am Posts: 5192 Location: The Great _______
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Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club
In. TS3: 1.2 Billion HP7 I: 1.1 Billion
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Thu Jun 17, 2010 1:33 pm |
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Biggestgeekever
I heet the canadian!
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am Posts: 5192 Location: The Great _______
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Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club
Magnus Lightyear wrote: Biggestgeekever wrote: In. TS3: 1.2 Billion HP7 I: 1.1 Billion More like 1.2 billion for HP and 1.1 billion for TS3. Now you're just pissing me off! 1.7 Billion for TS3, 900 Million for HP!!!
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Thu Jun 17, 2010 1:43 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club
Biggestgeekever wrote: Magnus Lightyear wrote: Biggestgeekever wrote: In. TS3: 1.2 Billion HP7 I: 1.1 Billion More like 1.2 billion for HP and 1.1 billion for TS3. Now you're just pissing me off! 1.7 Billion for TS3, 900 Million for HP!!!
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Thu Jun 17, 2010 1:50 pm |
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SolC9
Forum General
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:11 pm Posts: 7172 Location: Wisconsin
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Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club
Out. Potter is just too big overseas. Throw in 3D and the winter release, and I just don't see it happening. That said, both should definitely top 1B.
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Thu Jun 17, 2010 1:56 pm |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am Posts: 4556
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Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club
3D won't give HP7 much of a boost unlike Avatar, Alice, and possibly TS3. Domestically, it will likely lose half of its 3D screens by its second weekend when Tangled comes out, then probably lose 90% of those by its third when Narnia comes out, then you have Tron/Yogi Brear in its fourth and so on. Films like Avatar and Alice didn't have to face ANY 3D competition for many weeks.
And the Potter franchise except for HP4 have been consistently overpredicted. I, for one thought HP6 will break 700m+ overseas last year while some others said it will break 1B WW.
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Thu Jun 17, 2010 2:26 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club
2001 wrote: 3D won't give HP7 much of a boost unlike Avatar, Alice, and possibly TS3. Domestically, it will likely lose half of its 3D screens by its second weekend when Tangled comes out, then probably lose 90% of those by its third when Narnia comes out, then you have Tron/Yogi Brear in its fourth and so on. Films like Avatar and Alice didn't have to face ANY 3D competition for many weeks.
And the Potter franchise except for HP4 have been consistently overpredicted. I, for one thought HP6 will break 700m+ overseas last year while some others said it will break 1B WW. I agree the boost will not be as good as Avatar but then HP movies are known for a huge opening and an OK 2nd week. 3D will definitely help in 2 weeks where it makes most of its money.
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Thu Jun 17, 2010 2:29 pm |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am Posts: 4556
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Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club
But it would make its legs even worse than normal. It probably takes away 5-10m of its gross.
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Thu Jun 17, 2010 2:43 pm |
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_axiom
The Wall
Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2005 10:50 am Posts: 16163 Location: Croatia
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Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club
2001 wrote: But it would make its legs even worse than normal. It probably takes away 5-10m of its gross. HP series don't have bad legs. They have an awful second weekend drop usually, but after that drops are under 50% and it gets a lot of under 40% drops too. For a franchise like that it's only natural to be very frontloaded in its first week. Especially when we're six movies in.
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Thu Jun 17, 2010 3:09 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club
Nonono
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Thu Jun 17, 2010 5:34 pm |
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Inny Binny
The Incredible Hulk
Joined: Wed Feb 10, 2010 10:24 pm Posts: 564 Location: New Zealand
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Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club
Nah. Both over $1b...well, maybe Toy Story 3 won't if the Euro keeps on screwing itself. But if I remember correctly I think I said something like $1.1b for TS3 and $1.25b for DH1. Numbers won't go that high now, unless the Euro fixes itself before DH1 releases.
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Thu Jun 17, 2010 8:43 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22680 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club
TS3 has to contend with Shrek in many territories. It wont be big enough to beat Potter. Would be good if it did offcourse.
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Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:21 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32104 Location: the last free city
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Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club
TS3 will not top 400m domestic so noooooooo to this club.
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:26 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6139 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club
No.
HP7pt1 - 390/850 (and no, that's not an increase in admissions domestically, and yes, 3D helps that much)
TS3 - 480/570
_________________ .
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Thu Jun 17, 2010 11:00 pm |
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nghtvsn
Extraordinary
Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 7:13 pm Posts: 11015 Location: Warren Theatre Oklahoma
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Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club
Your predictions have minimal separation.
I think HP7 will easily beat TS3.
_________________ 2009 World of KJ Fantasy Football World Champion Team MVP : Peyton Manning : Record 11-5 : Points 2669.00 [b]FREE KORRGAN 45TH PRESIDENT OF THE U.S.A. DONALD J. TRUMP #MAGA #KAG! 10,000 post achieved on - Posted: Wed May 16, 2018 7:49 pm
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Fri Jun 18, 2010 1:09 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club
I really don't see Toy Story 3 making more than $550-600 million OS.
And Potter will make $350+ million domestically.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Fri Jun 18, 2010 4:36 am |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am Posts: 4556
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Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club
be.redy wrote: HP series don't have bad legs. They have an awful second weekend drop usually, but after that drops are under 50% and it gets a lot of under 40% drops too.
For a franchise like that it's only natural to be very frontloaded in its first week. Especially when we're six movies in. HP6 doing a 1.9 5-day/total multiplier and a 62% second weekend drop coming off a Wednesday opening is natural but it's not good legs. While I'm confident with a huge OW -at least 145m+, I also believe it will have pretty much nothing left in the tank after its third weekend due to stronger than usual competition with 3D films and natural frontloadedness. Its multiplier will end up being somewhat comparable to New Moon. 65%+ second weekend drop, then 55%+ drop in its third when Narnia comes out.
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Fri Jun 18, 2010 1:22 pm |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am Posts: 4556
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Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club
Dr. Lecter wrote: And Potter will make $350+ million domestically. It will likely end up with a 2.1-2.2 multiplier, so even with a 165m+ OW, 350m is still not guaranteed.
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Fri Jun 18, 2010 1:29 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6166
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Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club
IN
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I used to be shawman.
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Fri Jun 18, 2010 1:30 pm |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am Posts: 4556
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Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club
Excellent reviews don't always mean excellent WoM, but 100% on RT at 120+ reviews for Toy Story 3 makes me think it's going to be as beloved generally as the previous films and gives me more confidence in this club.
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Fri Jun 18, 2010 1:39 pm |
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Bluebomb
Veteran
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 10:53 am Posts: 3007
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Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club
I personally am not getting the 350+ predicts. Harry Potter has been consistent in gross since the beginning so I don't see how the added gross from 3D will give it that much of a boost. If people weren't clamoring to see the Harry Potter series in theaters before, they won't start now. For the others that paid before, some might not even bother to watch HP7 in 3D and will wait for video, albeit these are a minuscule few.
At most, it will clear 350 but just barely.
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Fri Jun 18, 2010 1:43 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6166
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Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club
I think Potter with 3d will have the same effect as ice age. It will help it stay close to HP6 gross.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Fri Jun 18, 2010 1:45 pm |
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