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Bridesmaids in the all-time R-rated Top 20?
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Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sun Jun 12, 2011 9:57 am ]
Post subject:  Bridesmaids in the all-time R-rated Top 20?
The Hangover: Part II is currently taking the all-time R-rated domestic chart in a storm and should be #7 by the end of its third weekend.

However there is actually a chance that we have a second movie to break into this Top 20 this year. It is already a rare occurcence by itself that there are two R-rated films in the same year that manage to become part of that group. What is even more shocking, however, is that both are comedies released in the same month. I have not checked the stats, but that might be the first time ever when two R-rated comedies released within less than four weeks or one another are going to pass $150 million.

And consider that in the light of two family-oriented films disappointing in the very same month (Pirates and Kung Fu Panda 2).

As of Friday, Bridesmaids was at $116.8 million, once again looking at a weekend drop of less than 20%. It is now finally tracking ahead of Knocked Up on daily basis and should be tracking ahead of its total by the end of the wekend too. Knocked Up narrowly missed $150 million, making $148.8 million in total. It currently resides at the 26th spot of the all-time biggest R-rated films domestically.

In order to enter the Top 20, Bridesmaids will need to top Fatal Attraction's $156,645,693. Can it make it?

I'm gonna say YES. It will beat it out by around a million. I'll leave the poll open until next Friday.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jun 12, 2011 10:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Bridesmaids in the all-time R-rated Top 20?
Definitely yes. I am thinking a total of about $158m-$160m. The legs have been exceptional so far and there is no stopping this movie. It is so surprising that the movie is yet to see a 30% drop on weekend after 5 weeks in release.
Author:  the lesser evil [ Wed Jun 15, 2011 8:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Bridesmaids in the all-time R-rated Top 20?
I went with YES as well. As you said, it has been tracking ahead of Knocked Up on a daily basis for a while, and it's now almost 2 million ahead of Knocked Up's total gross at the same point. Bridesmaids has posted superior holds to Knocked Up for pretty much its entire run, and I don't see it stopping. Monday's gross was almost 800K ahead of Knocked Up's comparable Monday! The distance between the two films will increase quickly if Bridesmaids stays stable.

I could actually see Bridesmaids playing with the $160 million mark...
Author:  thompsoncory [ Wed Jun 15, 2011 10:50 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Bridesmaids in the all-time R-rated Top 20?
For sure.
Author:  Proud Ryu [ Wed Jun 15, 2011 11:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Bridesmaids in the all-time R-rated Top 20?
Yes. Also of note it is running very similar to Wedding Crashers and with the same multiplier would hit 160, and though Brides has Bad Teacher hitting next weekend, Wedding Crashers had 40 Year Old Virgin at about the same point in the run. Bridesmaids will be third in the 'wedding' genre behind other runaway hits Greek Wedding and Wedding Crashers.

This would mark the 3rd year two R films passed 156 (current top 20), after 1998 (Something About Mary, Private Ryan) and 2000 (Gladiator and Scary Movie), but first year two R comedies did it. Only other time when consecutive movies did it that were comedies: Hangover part I and II.
Author:  Rev [ Wed Jun 15, 2011 12:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Bridesmaids in the all-time R-rated Top 20?
thompsoncory wrote:
For sure.
Author:  Rev [ Wed Jun 15, 2011 12:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Bridesmaids in the all-time R-rated Top 20?
thompsoncory wrote:
For sure.
Author:  Biggestgeekever [ Wed Jun 15, 2011 3:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Bridesmaids in the all-time R-rated Top 20?
I don't really see how Bridesmaids misses $160m when it's continue to post 10% weekly decreases on weekdays.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Thu Jun 16, 2011 12:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Bridesmaids in the all-time R-rated Top 20?
If it continues at this pace..it has a shot to reach $180m and maybe an outside shot at $200m.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Thu Jun 16, 2011 1:41 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Bridesmaids in the all-time R-rated Top 20?
For sure. It's at least doing 160 Million.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Thu Jun 16, 2011 1:45 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Bridesmaids in the all-time R-rated Top 20?
Jack Sparrow wrote:
If it continues at this pace..it has a shot to reach $180m and maybe an outside shot at $200m.


Well, I don't see 200 Million happening with comedies Bad Teacher, Horrible Bosses, or The Change-Up ahead. Though who knows, those could have not-so-hot WOM and sink fast.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sun Jun 19, 2011 1:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Bridesmaids in the all-time R-rated Top 20?
The (still great) 25.6% drop this weekend should finally put an end to the whole $170+ million total speculation. With Bad Teacher next weekend, it'll most certainly see another 25+% drop.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sun Jun 26, 2011 7:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Bridesmaids in the all-time R-rated Top 20?
While its drops are still stellar, it has slowed down. $160 million will still happen, but it won't be a walk in the park. It will now start losing theatres simply due to many new releases.

No chance for all those $170+ million projections.
Author:  torrino [ Sun Jun 26, 2011 7:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Bridesmaids in the all-time R-rated Top 20?
Following its ninth weekend, where it made $5.2MM off 2,071 screens, Hangover made an addl. $21.43MM.

Bridesmaids has a slightly better PTA than all most holdovers (Hangover, X-Men, Pirates, KFP2, Thor) and has $23.34MM to go. I don't see how it's impossible.

You're also ignoring the fact that its weekdays are still ridiculous. Hangover was earning $700k/day at that point, whereas Bridesmaids will be earning $900k or so this week...
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sun Jun 26, 2011 7:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Bridesmaids in the all-time R-rated Top 20?
I might take back the "impossible" if it loses less than 500 theatres this upcoming weekend...
Author:  torrino [ Sun Jun 26, 2011 7:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Bridesmaids in the all-time R-rated Top 20?
Think about this: it makes up a $2MM discrepancy ($21.43MM remaining for Hangover v. $23.34MM to $170MM) by having the same weekday/weekend multiplier (.68) that it had last week, with identical weekend numbers to the Hangover's Weeks 10-15 ($3.37MM, $1.99MM, $1.47MM, $1.34MM, $1.22MM, and $.71MM), which would represent 37%, 41%, 26%, 9%, 9%, and 42% drops, respectively.

It also has the benefit of the 7/4 holiday...
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sun Jun 26, 2011 7:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Bridesmaids in the all-time R-rated Top 20?
But thing is,. if I remember correctly, The Hangover Ii didn't have nearly as much R-rated comedy competition... This has Horrible Bosses and The Change-Up coming up. Both will be successful and take some of its audiences.
Author:  torrino [ Sun Jun 26, 2011 8:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Bridesmaids in the all-time R-rated Top 20?
Don't think that'll be too difficult. Not sure if it's likely but if it does, it won't take MUCH:

It has 11 days until Horrible Bosses. If it can average a little above $1MM a day (i.e, make ~$15MM in the time frame). If it can squeeze out a $3MM weekend against Horrible Bosses, it'll need $5MM more...so, $170M would be a given.

It made $17.47MM over the last 11 day time frame (6/13 - 6/23). $15MM would be a 14% drop. So, it'd need a pretty sweet drop over the 4-day weekend (like: -10% or so).
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jun 26, 2011 9:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Bridesmaids in the all-time R-rated Top 20?
It is surely crossing $160m mark with a chance to $170m, I don't see it making more than that.
Author:  Bradley Witherberry [ Mon Jun 27, 2011 12:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Bridesmaids in the all-time R-rated Top 20?
These Bridesmaids are going to show some late marathon legs - - watch for them to keep going longer than almost anyone imagined. All summer long is "wedding season", and this movie has already become a ritual for girls' night out - - wedding or no wedding.

I'm going to stick with my original May 1st prediction of $175m.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Fri Jul 01, 2011 6:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Bridesmaids in the all-time R-rated Top 20?
Bridesmaids' Wed-Wed drop is 49% and it lost almost 500 theatres. So I don't think $170 million will be easy at all. Looks like it'll drop 30+% over the weekend and with the arrival of Horrible Bosses next weekend, it'll probably decrease another 35+%.
Author:  the lesser evil [ Fri Jul 01, 2011 5:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Bridesmaids in the all-time R-rated Top 20?
It did surpass Knocked Up yesterday, becoming the biggest Related-To-Apatow film. Very impressive. It'll get to the R-rated top 20, and everything else is just icing on top.
Author:  Zuule [ Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Bridesmaids in the all-time R-rated Top 20?
Better than Hangover 2! Deserves every bit of success it earns.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Wed Jul 06, 2011 6:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Bridesmaids in the all-time R-rated Top 20?
So, next weekend, it'll be entering the all-time Top 20 of R-rated films....the question is how far it can get after that. Right now, $165 million seems like the absolute upper limit for me, especially since it'll be facing Horrible Bosses and The Change Up, both of which are destined to be big success stories. So, #18 among the biggest R-rated films is a lock and it has a small chance at #17, IMO. The Matrix ain't falling, though.
Author:  the lesser evil [ Sun Jul 10, 2011 1:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Bridesmaids in the all-time R-rated Top 20?
Dr. Lecter wrote:
So, next weekend, it'll be entering the all-time Top 20 of R-rated films....the question is how far it can get after that. Right now, $165 million seems like the absolute upper limit for me, especially since it'll be facing Horrible Bosses and The Change Up, both of which are destined to be big success stories. So, #18 among the biggest R-rated films is a lock and it has a small chance at #17, IMO. The Matrix ain't falling, though.


After this weekend's numbers, I don't think $165 million is the absolute upper limit, considering it dropped only 24% after losing nearly 300 theatres and facing yet another R-rated comedy. It should crawl by $165 million and play with $170 million, I think.

But like I've said before, everything that it makes now is just icing on the (wedding) cake. It beat Knocked Up, it beat Sex & The City, it will completely outperform all the other non-Hangover R-rated comedies, will likely end up the most impressive BO performance of 2011, and even beat out a massive animated sequel in the end (KFP2).
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