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The Hangover III Predictions
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=63723		 Page 1 of 3
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sun Jun 12, 2011 9:35 am ]
Post subject:  The Hangover III Predictions
I think it's safe to assume that the third movie will arrive in 2013, probably with a similar release as the second film as that played out pretty well for it.

Now I have little doubt that it'll go down from the second film, especially since the second is likely to finish a bit short off the first and has significantly worse WoM than the first movie. Moreover, in comedy movie franchises, it is more than usual that the third movie goes down from the second. Cases in point:

Little Fockers - 46.8% down from Meet the Fockers
American Wedding - 27.9% down from American Pie 2
Friday after Next - down 42% from Next Friday

Of course Scary Movie 3 bucked the trend, but that also had a ratings change from R to PG-13 which undoubtedly helped a lot. The only other exception remains Austin Powers in Goldmember.


I have little doubt, however, that The Hangover III will decrease from its predecessor. The question is by how much. I think a bigger decrease is in store percentage-wise than between the first and the second film since there won't be such a huge hype this time around and WoM simply is not that strong.

Unless there is a really big improvement in quality, I see around $185-190 million for the third film. Of course still really good, but nowhere near the first two films.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jun 12, 2011 11:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Hangover III Predictions
Too early because with inflation the movie could open huge.

Agreed on a big decrease and $200m might not be a lock next release. I do see it at $180m-$190m, though it could still reach $200m mark
Author:  Thegun [ Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Hangover III Predictions
I'd say Naked Gun is a pretty good factor as well. The 2nd film opened a little more than 2X as much, and the third did about 60% of what the 2nd film did. The biggest difference however is Naked Gun 2 was very well recieved

I could see this opening in the 50-65 million range, and finishing in the 160 million range. Though, if the film is much better recieved it could have better legs again.
Author:  jmovies [ Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Hangover III Predictions
If the leaked plot is true, it could do well (say $225M+) because it is a change from the first two and not just another repeat of the same thing.
Author:  Thegun [ Sun Jun 12, 2011 1:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Hangover III Predictions
What's the leaked plot? I guess spoilers if you can
Author:  MadGez [ Sun Jun 12, 2011 2:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Hangover III Predictions
The general word I hear from people I know is that its not as good as the first but still enjoyable (which is how I felt - even though the magic of the first was lost with the second).

So that in itself would mean a core fanbase will stick with it - but it will dip from the second.

But that leaked synopsis for III could mean it does well.

I'd say $100m 5-day, $230m total
Author:  Shack [ Sun Jun 12, 2011 4:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Hangover III Predictions
I believe you mean "The Hangover 3D"
Author:  Shack [ Sun Jun 12, 2011 4:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Hangover III Predictions
trixster sucks wrote:
Spoiler: show
All I've heard is that Zak Galifnikas is in a mental hospital and they break him out of it. And then Todd Phillips was saying that he wanted to do the third one in Amsterdam potentially so we'll see.


Spoiler: show
That'd be a very, very smart place to set it. It'd give the movie the feel that they're ramping up the buckwild and making the Wolfpack go "on the craziest adventure ever!!!"
Author:  STEVE ROGERS [ Mon Jun 13, 2011 1:32 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Hangover III Predictions
trixster sucks wrote:
Spoiler: show
All I've heard is that Zak Galifnikas is in a mental hospital and they break him out of it. And then Todd Phillips was saying that he wanted to do the third one in Amsterdam potentially so we'll see.


Amsterdam won't work based on the new Dutch Laws they have now or are about to enact concerning drug use and the part about breaking their buddy out of a mental hospital sounds terrible, practically screams of grasping and reaching and going to the well 1 too many times with this..
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Mon Jun 20, 2011 7:51 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Hangover III Predictions
Looks like the second film's legs are getting a bit better. Maybe this sequel will manage to stay above $200 million, even if barely.
Author:  O [ Mon Feb 04, 2013 1:10 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Hangover III Predictions
I have serious doubts for this one. I now see a potential under $150 m tally for it though it likely will still clear that level I wouldn't say its impossible for it to miss it. Fast 6 is going to take a huge share of its audience away even if they are different genres there's a lot of demo overlap.

June is also comedy heavy with some high profile films.

WB should consider a release date change on this one if Fast 6 isn't budging...
Author:  Algren [ Mon Feb 04, 2013 2:10 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Hangover III Predictions
The buzz has gone from this franchise. If a third were made, expect less than $150m.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Mon Feb 04, 2013 2:15 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Hangover III Predictions
170 million (or even less) total.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Mon Feb 04, 2013 6:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Hangover III Predictions
Not even a teaser trailer out yet. Weird...
Author:  Algren [ Mon Feb 04, 2013 9:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Hangover III Predictions
They don't really need to tease this flick.
Author:  zingy [ Wed Mar 06, 2013 4:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Hangover III Predictions
I'm a fan of this poster.

Image
Author:  Excel [ Wed Mar 06, 2013 5:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Hangover III Predictions
Hahahaha

That poster is perfection.
Author:  Thegun [ Wed Mar 06, 2013 5:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Hangover III Predictions
This will be an insane fucking weekend.

Star Trek 2 might crash and crumble and can't help it (But I think it'll have a decent chance of already passing the first one on this weekend. I see something like this

3 Day numbers

Fast and Furious 70
Hangover III 58
Star Trek into Darkness 56 (Down 58%)
Epic 50 million
Author:  Mannyisthebest [ Wed Mar 06, 2013 9:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Hangover III Predictions
Fast Six decreasing from Fast five???????


No way...
Author:  jmovies [ Wed Mar 06, 2013 9:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Hangover III Predictions
So far looking the same as the other two. Why is Chang in this?
Author:  Magic Mike [ Wed Mar 06, 2013 9:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Hangover III Predictions
They need to move this from Fast & Furious or they're just asking for it. Go a week later. The only thing scheduled then is The Purge.
Author:  Thegun [ Wed Mar 06, 2013 10:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Hangover III Predictions
Mannyisthebest wrote:
Fast Six decreasing from Fast five???????


No way...


Fast and the Furious has been golden as summer kick off films, in April, having 2 hugely competitive films for action fans and the biggest comedy opening will be massive competition. It won't be able to increase with 3 other films at least accounting for 170 million in addition to it.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Wed Mar 06, 2013 11:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Hangover III Predictions
Fast Five will do good numbers but given the competition it will be very difficult for it to build insane buzz like Fast Five (where I feel audience were craving for any event movie). I am thinking $180m-$200m but it will be the best movie of the series (probably).
Author:  Thegun [ Thu Mar 07, 2013 12:33 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Hangover III Predictions
I really doubt it, I mean the last one matching the original's tickets seems to be it's peak. This one doesn't have nearly as much interest and like said, where as the last two had zero competition, this has ridiculous. It also doesn't help that the last The Rocky appearing in Snitch, GI Joe and this may hurt it. His appearance has lost the novelty it brought last time.

I think if Hangover III can manage a 70 million 4 Day, it should be enough to at least have a respectable gross, like 160 or so, if it's really good though it can do more.
Author:  Mannyisthebest [ Thu Mar 07, 2013 8:30 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Hangover III Predictions
I think Fast Six should have come out around early April.

It would been the first huge event pic of the year and would easily flown past 200 million.


Even so Fast Six will likely increase a lot of overseas, so its fine.
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