This thread does not require the following detailed analysis, but here it goes:


Original Iron Man made 318.5m in 2008. Four years of base inflation (i.e. inflation on just average non-3D tickets, so at 3% a year) and we're at like 358.5m. Now add in 3D effect.

Let's say 75% of gross is in 3D/IMAX, and that average 3D/IMAX boost is at 30% (not all 3D tickets are 30% higher than normal, but IMAX tickets are so). So...

358.5m * .75 * 1.3 = 349.5m + .25 * 358.5m = 439m.

At ABSOLUTE MAX, I see a 10% increase in admissions from Avengers to Iron Man, which puts it MAXIMUM total at 483m.

So in short, this club is going to fail.

You really need to stop making clubs BKB every time u start a club u doom the movie.

This thread does not require the following detailed analysis, but here it goes:


Original Iron Man made 318.5m in 2008. Four years of base inflation (i.e. inflation on just average non-3D tickets, so at 3% a year) and we're at like 358.5m. Now add in 3D effect.

Let's say 75% of gross is in 3D/IMAX, and that average 3D/IMAX boost is at 30% (not all 3D tickets are 30% higher than normal, but IMAX tickets are so). So...

358.5m * .75 * 1.3 = 349.5m + .25 * 358.5m = 439m.

At ABSOLUTE MAX, I see a 10% increase in admissions from Avengers to Iron Man, which puts it MAXIMUM total at 483m.

So in short, this club is going to fail.

BKB can you please pass you OW numbers for this ? Or you are expecting monster legs ? As of now I don't see any. To cross or even come close to TDK this needs a much needed hype or probably they can spread the rumor that Robert Downey Jr. died so that people will flock on this. Since none of these are going to happen I don't see this club passing.

The argument of Avatar does apply, still Avatar was "considerably original" and had JC's direction (NOT ATTACHMENT) after coming back from Titanic helped the movie a lot. These were pretty big factors in Avatar's success. The target demo for this movie are mostly the action seekers and though the ensemble could be great I don't see the movie reaching the expected heights.

OW For The AVENGERS: 150 Million and it will have monster legs and enough to even hurt BATMAN 3 when it comes out 2 months later simply because BATMAN 3 will suffer the same fate as SPIDERMAN 3 did with the backlash of overabundance of villains you all complained about SPIDERMAN 3 having..

Lock is definitely a word used unnecessarily. It is too far for that prediction. You never know if the marketing sucks and would people be as interested in this one. 3D effect on grosses will definitely wear off after another year...so about 2 weeks of 3D would not really add huge numbers.

350m is not a lock but still likely (and not even highly likely)

I predict that The Dark Knight Rises, Monsters Inc 2, and The Hobbit will be the top 3 highest grossing films of 2012, now I don´t see The Avangers crossing the 350m

I'd go....

1. The Hobbit - $510m
2. The Dark Knight Rises - $505m
3. The Avengers - $407m
4. Monsters Inc 2 - $350m

now My Predictions:

Top 10:

1. The Dark Knight Rises (WB): 560m (if it is released in imax and 3D)
2. The Hobbit (WB): 450m (same 3D plus imax)
3. Monsters Inc. 2 (BV): 420m (3D plus imax)
4. The Avangers (BV): 340m (3D plus imax)
5. John Carter Of Mars (BV): 335m (3D plus imax)
6. Brave (BV): 325m (3D plus imax)
7. Spiderman (Sony): 320 (3D plus imax)
8. Twilight 4.2 (Summit): 315m
9. Star Trek (Paramount): 310m
10. Men in Black (Sony): 295m

easyly one of the most promising years of movies

the year of disney and warner

No 3rd movie ever in a franchise has made more than it's predecessors so why would TDKR be any different???[/b]

Toy Story 3 (2010): 415m (TS 1: 191m; TS 2: 245m)
Lord of The Rings ROTK (2003): 377m (TFOTR: 313m; TTT: 339m)