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February 11-13 predictions
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Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sat Feb 05, 2011 2:53 pm ]
Post subject:  February 11-13 predictions
You know the drill.
Author:  Libs [ Sat Feb 05, 2011 3:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 11-13 predictions
Just Go With It - 37
Justin Bieber: Never Say Never - 31
Gnomeo & Juliet - 11
The Eagle - 9
Author:  O [ Sat Feb 05, 2011 3:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 11-13 predictions
Just Go With It $48 m (though I wouldn't be surprised if it gets past $50 m).
Author:  zingy [ Sat Feb 05, 2011 4:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 11-13 predictions
Just Go With It - 40
Justin Bieber: Never Say Never - 30
Gnomeo and Juliet - 11
The Eagle - 7
Author:  Rolling Thunder [ Sat Feb 05, 2011 4:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 11-13 predictions
O wrote:
Just Go With It $48 m (though I wouldn't be surprised if it gets past $50 m).


Wow, you think it will flirt with a $50m OW? I know many will think this is the Sandler film that underwhelms and then it will still blow past $40m.
Author:  O [ Sat Feb 05, 2011 4:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 11-13 predictions
Rolling Thunder wrote:
O wrote:
Just Go With It $48 m (though I wouldn't be surprised if it gets past $50 m).


Wow, you think it will flirt with a $50m OW? I know many will think this is the Sandler film that underwhelms and then it will still blow past $40m.


Here are Sandler's film openings (comedies only/non-animated) adjusted for inflation since The Wedding Singer:

Grown Ups $41,122,631.38
Bedtime Stories $30,623,519.63
You Don't Mess with the Zohan $42,985,557.90
I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry $39,856,444.40
Click $48,929,928.80
The Longest Yard $59,489,532.73
50 First Dates $51,403,610.04
Anger Management $56,084,408.70
Mr. Deeds $51,234,754.54
Little Nicky $23,872,332.29
Big Daddy $65,493,370.81
The Waterboy $67,314,863.26
The Wedding Singer $32,219,464.99

Not including Bedtime Stories, his last 8 films would adjust to $40 m or more.

Regularly I'd say low to mid $40's. However, there has not been an event film in theaters in months! It has strong starpower with Jennifer Aniston starring as well. Probably the biggest female star in a starring role for a Sandler film since 50 First Dates. Valentine's Day is on Monday, which should help out Sunday even more. I think a lot more people will see it due to the lack of films around...
Author:  BJ [ Sat Feb 05, 2011 4:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 11-13 predictions
I expect big numbers from JGWI, 45m+ fo sho.
Author:  Dil [ Sat Feb 05, 2011 4:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 11-13 predictions
Just Go With It - $38M
Justin Bieber: Never Say Never - $31M
Gnomeo & Juliet - $10M
The Eagle - $8M
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sat Feb 05, 2011 5:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 11-13 predictions
I don't think there's any possible way JUST GO WITH IT opens below 40 Million. Not on Valentine's Weekend.

THE EAGLE should at least be good for 10 Million.
Author:  MadGez [ Sat Feb 05, 2011 6:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 11-13 predictions
Just Go With It - $43M
Justin Bieber: Never Say Never - $27M
Gnomeo & Juliet - $14M
The Eagle - $11M
Author:  DIB2 [ Sat Feb 05, 2011 8:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 11-13 predictions
Just Go With It - 34.0
Justin Bieber: Never Say Never - 25.9
Gnomeo & Juliet - 14.5
The Eagle - 6.5
Author:  BK [ Sat Feb 05, 2011 9:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 11-13 predictions
Inflation adjusting reasoning is not strong reasoning.

Justin Bieber 40.1
Just Go With It 38.9
Gnomeo 8.4
Eagle 6.3
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Sun Feb 06, 2011 1:31 am ]
Post subject:  Re: February 11-13 predictions
Ridiculous numbers for the Beiber by all of you. You should be ashamed of yourselves.

Just Go With It - $44M
Bieber - $18M
Eagle - $11M
Gnomeo - $7M
Author:  Jedi Master Carr [ Sun Feb 06, 2011 4:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: February 11-13 predictions
It reminds me of the Jonas Brother predictions.
Author:  2001 [ Sun Feb 06, 2011 12:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 11-13 predictions
Just Go With It - 45m
Justin Bieber: Never Say Never - 33m
Gnomeo & Juliet - 11m
The Eagle - 10m
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sun Feb 06, 2011 1:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 11-13 predictions
Finally a good weekend is here. And the movie goers are surely hungry for an event movie. At this point anything would do and I think JGWI will reap the benefit of a poor January and even miserable February.

JGWI - $42m

Biebermania is loosing some stream though still remains strong. I think they released the trailers a bit too early in the game and now the craze has calmed down. Though they released the ticket sales earlier which is why I think it still has a chance of a good OW

Bieber - $36m

Gnomeo an Juliet is in 3D and the marketplace is wide open for kids movie. I know the tracking suggests no interest but the marketplace will help it and it might crack 15m mark as well

Gnomeo and Juliet - $13m

Eagle is looking weakest of the lot and with a bunch of younger male group just coming out of Mechanic this might have a tougher challenge getting many audience.

Eagle -$9m

Anyways I will refine them once tracking numbers out....but something says that this weekend I will go a little different than tracking....specially on GAJ
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Sun Feb 06, 2011 2:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 11-13 predictions
Magnus wrote:
Bieber >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Jonas Bros.
How so? They both peaked in popularity before their movies came out. They both have no appeal outside of their 9-15 female demo. And like Jonas Bros, Bieber will not be able to trick parents into spending $60 for four movie tickets like Hannah Montana did. 3D is played out and you can watch the same thing on youtube. If it was a scripted movie with Bieber playing himself then I'd be right there with you at $40M.
Author:  Libs [ Sun Feb 06, 2011 2:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 11-13 predictions
Bieber is way bigger than the Jonas Bros. ever were...it's that simple.

And this is going out to 3000+ theaters, not 1000 like the Jonas Brothers movie.
Author:  David [ Sun Feb 06, 2011 3:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 11-13 predictions
It's sad huge excitement for concert movies rarely (if ever) extends beyond the teen pop star set. For example, I just saw Stop Making Sense made around $4 million. Considering its reputation, and how great it is, I had always assumed its gross was much higher.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Sun Feb 06, 2011 3:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 11-13 predictions
Magnus wrote:
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
Magnus wrote:
Bieber >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Jonas Bros.
How so? They both peaked in popularity before their movies came out. They both have no appeal outside of their 9-15 female demo. And like Jonas Bros, Bieber will not be able to trick parents into spending $60 for four movie tickets like Hannah Montana did. 3D is played out and you can watch the same thing on youtube. If it was a scripted movie with Bieber playing himself then I'd be right there with you at $40M.


Not true. Bieber goes outside that 9-15 demo. Bieber has 7 top 20 singles. Jonas Bros had 3.
I'll give you that. Some good info to consider. I just can't see a concert film doing more than $25M today even with 3D. If it was scripted it could be used a date movie. If it was 2D then it wouldn't be such a huge hit on parents. If you have 3 or more kids than you're looking at a $100+ investment after food. That's a lot to ask.

Meanwhile there's a harmless new Adam Sandler movie opening against it. Seems like a mismatch.
Author:  David [ Sun Feb 06, 2011 3:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 11-13 predictions
If the little emperors want to go badly enough, Bieber'll get parents' hard-earned $100+.

I find it surprising the Travelocity movie thinks it can survive this weekend.
Author:  BK [ Sun Feb 06, 2011 3:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 11-13 predictions
Bieber will do well because he has a bigger fanbase than the J-Bros ever had.

Bieber also has the mum support for some reason like Twilight.

I would be glad if it failed my 40/80 prediction but I'm sure I won't be too far off.

3D is tricky now though. It is more a hindrance than anything.
Author:  Dil [ Sun Feb 06, 2011 5:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 11-13 predictions
RS: [JGWIT] high 30s [JBI3D] low 20s [GNOME] high single digits [EAGLN] mid single digits (just below GNOME)


Posted by: secretstalker on Feb 06, 13:19

[BMOM3] high teens (4 day)

[UWMAL] mid 20s (4 day)

[IMNO4] low 30s (4 day)

[DRVAN] mid teens

[HLPAS] low double digits

WOW! that is actually pretty bad for Bieber. I seriously don't know how to predict this movie now because it could either turn out to be the breakout we didn't expect or it will end up being WAY overpredicted. Either way this is going to be a very interesting weekend.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Sun Feb 06, 2011 5:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 11-13 predictions
You're right Magnus. Things would be much better for all parties if Bieber and Unknown had switched.
Author:  Rolling Thunder [ Sun Feb 06, 2011 8:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 11-13 predictions
I don't see Bieber opening as low as RS has it, but I did think of one problem...Bieber is likely to bring in predominantly young girls, whereas Milery Cyrus brought in both boys and girls...the former obviously because they (somehow) found her attractive. I remember the HM screenings having a lot more boys than I anticipated, which I don't expect to happen with JBI3D.
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