I'll be watching Ghost Protocol because of BRAD BIRD

It'll do a lot less than $180m. And M:I3 made $134m.

I'm quite sure many will be surprised if it ever beats MI3.

yeah like everyone said considering the last one barely made 130 million, I'll use that bar or even toying with under 100 million. Add to the fact, Tom Cruise's power has gone down a few notches and his name is now more of a parody. He needs to let go of the franchise since its going the way of Rocky and Terminator

$150M+

BRAD BIRD

I actually liked MI3 except for that chinese bit at the end where they don't even show any action inside the building. Other than that, I thought it was pretty good.

After viewing the trailer for MI4, however, it looks pretty bland at the present time.

MI3 was AWESOME ! and Paramount is obviously banking off the wom from that movie to fuel this one and I honestly think it could work, but I'm not expecting more than $160M. Even if it turns out being as good or even better than MI3 there is way too much competition this December especially for the adult audiences.

Ya really. ESPECIALLY with Knight & Day doing unspectacular numbers. 4th movie franchise fatigue as well. The trailer's not convincing anyone that this is something new or interesting. $100 million would be very surprising.

If it moves to next year like I suspect, it'll do fine. If it doesn't, Holmes 2 will probably cream whatever chances it had of getting of the franchise back on track financially (domestically, at least).

I haven't watched the trailer yet either so this is just my initial feeling on it.

Holmes 2 is going to drop a bit from the first one.

I think it very well could too. But still, that's a huge risk for Paramount to take. On the books, Holmes has the runaway advantage right now. Studio needs to rethink its strategy with a franchise this frail.

I'm pretty sure that Paramount would be quite happy if M:I4 does the same $400m as M:I3...

I think Holmes 2 could see a nice increase from the first, actually. It has Moriarty in it, which will make for a great marketing asset.

Except that most Americans have no idea who the hell Moriarty is. They saw Sherlock Holmes for RDJ, not for the character himself.

I don't think audience in general knows who Moriarty is. I vividly remember the crowd in my theater being dead silent when Moriarty's name was said in the first movie. I expected at least a few sighs.

Sherlock Holmes is a brand name itself and I think it's more associated with weird detective cases rather than with memorable villains.

Ehh, even if that's the case (which would be REALLY sad, they should at least know him from the TNG episodes! ), I think a true adversary for that hyper intelligent detective is a selling point itself.

How are they going to do that?

Oh here's Moriarty, he's just as smart if not smarter than Sherlock. Yes dear audience Sherlock will have tough time cracking this nut!

I think they should have kept Moriarty's name a secret (as we established naming him didn't do much for the audience obviously) and let the secretive elusive man be the focal point of the marketing. Knowing his name kinda lessens the audience's idea of that man being supersecretive and dangerous and suspicious I think.

Me too. I vividly remember thinking, "Wow, it's like Batman Begins' ending if nobody knew who the hell the Joker is."

Even I don't know much about Sherlock Holmes but I remember some films of that character as a kid and Sherlock has been around way longer than I. If an audience is oblivious to moriarty being sherlocks nemesis there's something wrong with those people. Seriously. Are people today that unaware? Wait, of course they are when those same people vote in crooks into office every election.

Btw, I loved the first SH and am looking forward to part 2.

It's sort of sad more than it is wrong. Moriarty is one of the -- if not the -- most iconic literary villains.

Mission: Impossible: Ghost Protocol does seem like its in a very precarious position. I'm not really sure if anyone really wants this movie except Paramount and the producers. And sorry folks, but Brad Bird is not a selling point to anyone but mega movie geeks. I think that animation is one of the highest forms of cinema, but many still marginalize the format. I hope it's a great movie, and it'd be cool if it did well too, but at this point it looks like Paramount will mostly be banking on good WOM through the holidays more than a big opening. Which to me seems like a smart move.

Except that the third M:I actually had good reviews...

This is bullshit, americans, especially older ones (40+) who fuel the first movie, know exactly who moriarty is and who Holmes is. This is still an incredibly well known story and series, some people still read books dark shape.